Insee conjoncture

In February 2018, households' confidence is back to its long-term average (100)Monthly consumer confidence survey - February 2018

In February 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation declined sharply, after stabilizing in January: the synthetic index lost 4 points and is back to its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides N° 52
No 52
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 27/02/2018
Prochaine parution le : 26/10/2018 at 08:45 - October 2018

In February 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation declined sharply, after stabilizing in January: the synthetic index lost 4 points and is back to its long-term average (100).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Financial situation: sharp downturn

In February, household were more pessimistic than in January on their future financial situation: the corresponding balance lost 6 points and returned to its January 2015 level, far below its long-term average. Households' opinion on their past financial situation also worsened (−6 points). The corresponding balance fell slightly below its long-term average.

The proportion of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases was almost unchanged in February (−1 point). The corresponding balance stands clearly above its long-term average.

Savings intentions: slight decline

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save decreased slightly in February (−2 points). The corresponding balance thus remains well below its long-term average.

In February, households' balance of opinion on their expected saving capacity dropped 5 points, while the one on their current saving capacity was virtually stable (−1 point). Both balances remain slightly above their long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan. 18 Feb. 18
Synthetic index (2) 100 102 104 104 100
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –19 –18 –16 –22
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –11 –11 –13 –19
Current saving capacity 8 12 11 12 11
Expected saving capacity –9 –2 –1 –3 –8
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 4 4 7 5
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –4 –3 –3 –4
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –39 –33 –33 –37
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –18 –16 –18 –24
Unemployment, next 12 m. 34 6 8 4 4
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –17 –45 –47 –42 –37
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –28 –35 –17 –20
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2017).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: less favourable assessment

In February, households were more pessimistic about the future standard of living in France: the corresponding balance lost 6 points and is back to its January 2017 level. Households also felt less favourably about the past standard of living in France: the corresponding balance declined by 4 points, after a two-month stability. However, both balances remain above their long-term average.

Unemployment: steady expectations

Households' opinion on unemployment trend was unchanged in February: the corresponding balance was stable and stays far below its long-term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Perceived inflation: sharp rise

In February, households were more numerous than in January to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance gained 5 points, reaching its highest level since August 2014. Nevertheless, it stands well below its long-term average.

However, households were slightly less numerous to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance lost 3 points after soaring in January (+18 points). It stands clearly above its long-terme average.

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)