26 January 2018

2018- n° 12

Already at a very high level, the business climate in manufacturing further strengthens in January Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2018, the business climate in industry has strengthened again. The composite indicator has increased by one point and and has returned to its November level (113), well above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balance of opinion on past activity, already significantly above its average in January, is back on track. The one about their personal production expectations is stable, far above its long-term average.

Manufacturers are even more optimistic than at the end of 2017 about general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has continued to rise and has reached its highest level since July 2000.

The balance on export order books has slightly increased again and has reached its highest point since December 2007. That on overall order books has also risen and has reached its highest since March 2008.

Lastly, nearly as many industrialists than in December consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance nevertheless remains below its long-term mean.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has inched down again in January. At 110, it remains well above its long-term average. This slight weakening mainly comes from a fall in the balance of opinion on past activity.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has continued to rise. The composite indicator stands at 114, further exceeding its long-term mean. In January, the increase mainly comes from that of the balances on overall and export order books.

The business climate has improved in machinery and equipment and in the computer, electronic and optical product industry, while faltering in electrical equipment.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has slightly improved. At 111, it stands at its highest level since June 2001. This increase is mainly due to the rise in the balance on global order books.

The business climate has improved in other transport equipment. However it has declined in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, while remaining far above its average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable, after peaking in November at its highest level (112) since January 2001. The increase in the balance on past activity offset the decrease in those on personal production expectations and on export order books.

In particular, the business climate indicator has declined in wood-paper and brightened in clothing-textiles and “other manufacturing industries”. It is stable in all other subsectors.