In July 2017, households' confidence falters after a two-month riseMonthly consumer confidence survey - July 2017

In July 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined markedly: the composite indicator has lost 4 points and reached 104, after gaining 8 points over the two previous months. However, it stays above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 197
Paru le : 26/07/2017
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In July 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined markedly: the composite indicator has lost 4 points and reached 104, after gaining 8 points over the two previous months. However, it stays above its long-term average (100).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Personal financial situation: sharp downturn

In July, households' opinion on their past financial situation has been deteriorating: the corresponding balance has lost 3 points (after +5 points in June). It remains above its long-term average. Households' opinion on their future financial situation has receded sharply: the corresponding balance has lost 6 points (after +2 points in June) and has gone back below its long-term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases is stable in July, after a steep rise in June (+11 points). The balance stands way above its long-term average.

Expected saving capacity: decreasing

In July, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity has lost 2 points. The one on their expected saving capacity has lost 4 points. Both balances are back to their March 2017 level. They stay above their long-term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has increased slightly (+2 points). The corresponding balance has hit its highest level since April 2015, but remains clearly below its long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: less optimism

In July 2017, households' balance of opinion on the future standard of living in France has fallen back strongly (−11 points), after soaring in May and June (+22 points cumulatively). Households' balance of opinion on the past standard of living in France is unchanged, after rising by +6 points in June. It stays at its highest level since February 2003. Both balances remain above their long-term average.

Unemployment: fears growing slightly

Households' fears concerning unemployment have gone up a little in July: the corresponding balance has increased by 2 points after a three-month decline. However, it remains far below its long-term average.

Expected inflation rising

In July, households are more numerous to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has recovered by 9 points, and has returned above its long-term average.

Households are as numerous as in June to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance is stable, well below its long-term average level.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) April 17 May 17 June 17 July 17
Composite indicator (2) 100 100 102 108 104
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –20 –19 –14 –17
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –9 –5 –3 –9
Current saving capacity 8 13 14 14 12
Expected saving capacity –9 –2 –2 1 –3
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 6 6 7 9
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –3 –12 –1 –1
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –50 –45 –39 –39
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –21 –15 1 –10
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 15 14 6 8
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –49 –54 –54 –54
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –28 –34 –41 –32
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Revisions

Compared to the previous estimation in June, the households' confidence index is slightly revised downward (−1 point) in April and May, due to updated seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)