In June 2017, households' confidence improves sharply and returns to its highest level since June 2007Monthly consumer confidence survey - June 2017

In June 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has improved strongly: the synthetic index has gained 5 points (after +2 points in May), reaching 108, its highest level since June 2007. Thus it stands clearly above its long term average (100). A peak of optimism was similarly recorded for previous presidential elections (see Conjoncture in France, March 2017, p.91-93).

Informations rapides
No 170
Paru le : 28/06/2017
Prochaine parution le : 26/07/2017 at 08:45 - July 2017

In June 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has improved strongly: the synthetic index has gained 5 points (after +2 points in May), reaching 108, its highest level since June 2007. Thus it stands clearly above its long term average (100). A peak of optimism was similarly recorded for previous presidential elections (see Conjoncture in France, March 2017, p.91-93).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Personal financial situation: sharp improvement

In June, households' opinion on their past financial situation has improved strongly: the corresponding balance has gained 5 points and diverged further from its long term average. Households' opinion on their future financial situation has improved for the second consecutive month: the corresponding balance has gained 2 points and has tilted above its long term average. Both balances stand at their highest level since summer 2007.

After a drop in May, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has recovered in June: the corresponding balance has gained 11 points and went back to its level of February, clearly above its long term average.

Expected saving capacity: slight increase

In June, households' opinion on their expected saving capacity has improved by 3 points and became positive again for the first time since April 2015. Households' opinion on their current saving capacity is unchanged. Both balances are above their long terme average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save is virtually stable: the corresponding balance has gained 1 point but stays clearly under its long term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: renewed optimism again

In June 2017, households' balance of opinion on the future standard of living in France has kept rising: it has gained 15 points (after +7 points in May) and has returned to a level unseen since May 2007. Households' balance of opinion about the past standard of living in France has improved again (+5 points after +6 points), to its highest level since the beginning of 2003. Both balances stand a little more beyond their long term average.

Unemployment: fears declining again

Households' fears concerning unemployment have decreased again in June, for the third consecutive month. The corresponding balance has lost 9 points and stands at its lowest level since the beginning of 2008, clearly below its long term average.

Expected inflation declining

In June, households are less numerous to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has lost 5 points, and has moved further away from its long term average.

Households are as numerous as in May to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months; the corresponding balance stays clearly under its long term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) March 17 April 17 May 17 June 17
Synthetic index (2) 100 101 101 103 108
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –20 –19 –19 –14
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –7 –9 –5 –3
Current saving capacity 8 12 13 14 14
Expected saving capacity –9 –3 –1 –1 2
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 5 6 6 7
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –7 –3 –12 –1
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –47 –50 –44 –39
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –22 –21 –14 1
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 19 15 14 5
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –46 –49 –54 –54
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –26 –29 –34 –39
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Revisions

Compared to the previous estimation in May, the households' confidence index is slightly revised upward (+1 point) on the months from March to May, because of the reestimation of the seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)