In October 2016, households' confidence improves slightlyMonthly consumer confidence survey - October 2016

In October 2016, households' confidence has improved slightly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 1 point, and now stands at 98. It has returned to its level of May 2016, the highest since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 278
Paru le : 26/10/2016
Prochaine parution le : 28/06/2017 at 08:45 - June 2017

In October 2016, households' confidence has improved slightly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 1 point, and now stands at 98. It has returned to its level of May 2016, the highest since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Futur financial situation: improving

In October, households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months has improved: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points, returning to its level of December 2015. Thus, it has moved closer to its long-term average. The balance of opinion on their personal financial situation in the past twelve months is stable, slightly below its long-term average.

The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases has grown a litlle again. The corresponding balance has gained 1 point and stands above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: downturn

In October, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity has lost 3 points and has gone back below its long-term average. The balance concerning their expected saving capacity holds steady, slightly above its long-term average.

The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save has declined as well ((3 points). The balance stands clearly below its long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: rising optimism

In October, household's opinion of the future standard of living in France has improved again: the corresponding balance has gained 2 points and has moved closer to its long-term average. The one of the past standard of living is virtually stable (+1 point) and remains below its long-term average.

Unemployment: sharp increase in fears

After a slight dip in September, households' fears about unemployement have surged sharply in October. The corresponding balance has increased by 10 points and has gone back above its long-term average.

Perceived and expected inflation: falling

In October, households are less numerous than in September to consider that prices increased during the past twelve months. The corresponding balance has lost 6 points and has fallen back to its level of August 2016. Therefore, it remains far below its long-term average. Likewise, households are less numerous to consider that prices are likely to increase during the next 12 months: the balance has lost 2 points, and has also returned to its level of August, below its long-term-average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016
Av. (1) July Aug. Sept. Oct.
Synthetic index (2) 100 96 97 97 98
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –28 –22 –23 –23
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –10 –10 –10 –7
Current saving capacity 8 8 10 9 6
Expected saving capacity –9 –11 –9 –7 –7
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 2 0 1 –2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –8 –10 –6 –5
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –52 –53 –54 –53
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –31 –34 –31 –29
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 27 34 31 41
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –52 –53 –47 –53
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –38 –37 –35 –37
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)