25 August 2016
2016- n° 220In August 2016, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - August 2016
According to business managers surveyed in August 2016, the business climate in services is stable. The business climate composite indicator remains slightly above its long-term average (101).
- Business prospects close to their long-term average
- The business climate is virtually stable in road transport
- In accomodation and food service activities, the business climate has fallen back clearly below its long-term average
- The business climate has reached its long-term average in information and communication
- The business climate in real estate is stable
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has improved
- The business climate in administrative and support service activities is stable, slightly above its long-term average
According to business managers surveyed in August 2016, the business climate in services is stable. The business climate composite indicator remains slightly above its long-term average (101).
graphiqueGraph1 – Business climate composite indicator
The turning point indicator remains in the uncertainty area.
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between +0.3 and -0.3: uncertainty area.
Business prospects close to their long-term average
The balance of opinion on past activity has recovered slightly and has returned to its level of June. The balances on expected activity and demand remain close to their long-term average.
The balance on general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, has fallen back to its long-term average level, after a slight rebound in July.
The balance on past employment is virtually stable, that on expected employment has gone up slightly, particularly in temporary work agencies. Both balances remain well above their long-term average.
The balance on past investments has increased, whereas that on expected investments is almost unchanged. Both balances stand above their long-term average.
tableauTable_month – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 16 | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 98 | 101 | 101 |
| General outlook | –8 | –7 | –8 | –6 | –8 |
| Past activity | 2 | 2 | 0 | –2 | 0 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –1 | –3 | 1 | 1 |
| Expected demand | –1 | 0 | –2 | –1 | 0 |
| Past selling prices | –4 | –9 | –9 | –8 | –5 |
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –7 | –7 | –5 | –6 |
| Past employment | 3 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 11 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | –1 | –1 | 4 | 0 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: INSEE
In most subsectors, the business climate stands at its long-term average or slightly above. It has increased by two points in information and communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities. Only the business climate in accomodation and food services has deteriorated sharply and has fallen back clearly below its long-term average.
The business climate is virtually stable in road transport
In road transport, the business climate has decreased by one point. At 103, it remains above its long-term average. The balance on past activity has recovered but the balance on general outlook has deteriorated.
In accomodation and food service activities, the business climate has fallen back clearly below its long-term average
In accomodation and food service activities, the business climate has decreased by eight points and has fallen back to its level of June (92), clearly below its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and demand and on general outlook have deteriorated sharply.
The business climate has reached its long-term average in information and communication
In information and communication, the business climate has gone up by two points and has reached its long-term average (100). The balance on past activity has recovered markedly.
The business climate in real estate is stable
In real estate activities, the business climate is unchanged (102). The decrease in the balances on past and expected activity is offset by the improvement in the balance on past employment.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has improved
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has improved by two points and stands slightly above its long-term average (102). The balance on past activity has decreased but that on general outlook has risen.
The business climate in administrative and support service activities is stable, slightly above its long-term average
In administrative and support service activities, the business climate is unchanged, slightly above its long-term average (101). The balance on past activity has gone down and has fallen back slightly below its long-term average. However, the expectations on activity and demand have recovered after a decrease last month. The balances on employment remain well above their long-term average.
tableauTable_det – Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | May 16 | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 101 | 104 | 103 |
| Past activity | –8 | –6 | –13 | –9 | –4 |
| Expected activity | –9 | –2 | –9 | –3 | –3 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –3 | –9 | –1 | –7 |
| Past employment | –8 | 0 | 4 | –4 | 1 |
| Expected employment | –10 | –6 | –7 | –10 | –6 |
| General outlook | –24 | –13 | –17 | –13 | –20 |
| Accomodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 92 | 100 | 92 |
| Past activity | –7 | –4 | –12 | –12 | –10 |
| Expected activity | –8 | –14 | –16 | –4 | –12 |
| Expected demand | –10 | –12 | –17 | –10 | –15 |
| Past employment | –4 | 5 | –2 | 1 | –6 |
| Expected employment | –6 | –3 | –3 | 2 | –1 |
| General outlook | –14 | –23 | –25 | –20 | –31 |
| Information and communication (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 98 | 98 | 100 |
| Past activity | 8 | –7 | 0 | –20 | 0 |
| Expected activity | 9 | –7 | –5 | 4 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| Past employment | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| General outlook | 0 | –3 | –1 | –1 | 0 |
| Real estate activities (13%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 96 | 102 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 2 | –3 | 2 | 2 |
| Past employment | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 0 | –2 | 4 | 1 |
| General outlook | –2 | –1 | –3 | 0 | 0 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 99 | 100 | 102 |
| Past activity | –1 | –3 | –1 | 4 | –2 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –3 | –6 | –3 | –1 |
| Expected demand | –6 | –4 | –5 | –8 | –3 |
| Past employment | 1 | –2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| General outlook | –9 | –8 | –8 | –9 | –6 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 102 | 101 | 101 |
| Past activity | 6 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 9 | 4 | –1 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Past employment | 9 | 30 | 20 | 26 | 20 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 25 |
| General outlook | –5 | –1 | –4 | 0 | –4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
