25 August 2016
2016- n° 216In August 2016, the business climate in manufacturing has fallen back Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - August 2016
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2016, the business climate in industry is less favourable. The composite indicator has lost 2 points. At 101, it is slightly above its long-term average (100).
- Deterioration of the opinion on activity
- In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has slumped
- In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable
- The business climate in the manufacture of transport equipment remains above its mean
- The business climate is just above normal in “other manufacturing”
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2016, the business climate in industry is less favourable. The composite indicator has lost 2 points. At 101, it is slightly above its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator is now in the zone indicating an unfavourable economic outlook.
graphiqueGraphang2 – Turning-point indicator
Deterioration of the opinion on activity
In August 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity has deteriorated (−6 points) and has returned to its long-term average. That on personal production, already below normal in July, has decreased further (−3 points).
Business managers in manufacturing are a few less optimistic than in July on general production prospects in the sector (−2 points). The corresponding balance has remained above its long-term average since February 2015.
In August, order books have deteriorated as a whole but export ones are stable; the corresponding balances of opinion remain above their mean.
Finally, fewer industrialists than in July consider that finished-goods inventories are above normal: the corresponding balance has decreased by 6 points and has returned below its long-term average.
tableautableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry | Ave.* | May 16 | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 102 | 103 | 101 |
Past activity | 4 | 13 | –1 | 10 | 4 |
Finished-goods inventory | 13 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 10 |
Global order books | –18 | –13 | –13 | –12 | –15 |
Export order books | –14 | –8 | –9 | –9 | –9 |
Personal production expectations | 5 | 7 | 9 | 2 | –1 |
General production expectations | –9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
- * Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey
The downturn in the business climate in the industry stems mainly from the manufacture of food products and beverages. In the manufacture of transport equipment and in “other manufacturing”, the business climate has slightly worsened. In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, it holds steady.
In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has slumped
In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has decreased by 7 points in August and has returned to its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly due to the balances of opinion on past activity and on global order books that have fallen below normal.
In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable
In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable slightly below its long-term average. The balance on past activity has decreased but that on export order books has increased.
On a sub-sector level, the composite indicator, already below normal, has deteriorated in electrical equipment (−2 points). In computer, electronic and optical product industry, the business climate is stable at 104, above its mean level. In the machinery and equipment sector, the business climate has recovered (+2 points) but remains below normal.
The business climate in the manufacture of transport equipment remains above its mean
In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has lost one point again albeit remaining above its long-term average. This slight decrease is due to the decline in the balances on past activity and on global order books.
The business climates have slightly weakened in both the manufacture of motor vehicle, trailers and semi trailers and in that of other transport equipment. However, both remain above their long-term average.
The business climate is just above normal in “other manufacturing”
In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate has decreased by one point and is just above normal. The balances of opinion on past activity and on global order books have worsened, but that on production prospects has improved.
The business climate has deteriorated in the manufacture of wood-paper and has become slightly inferior to its long-term average. It is little changed in other sub-sectors, remaining close to normal, excepted in textile industries where it is significantly above its mean.
tableautableau2Climats – Business climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] | Weights** (%) | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages | 21 | 104 | 107 | 100 |
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods | 11 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products | 3 | 107 | 104 | 104 |
[CJ] Electrical equipment | 3 | 92 | 98 | 96 |
[CK] Machinery and equipment | 5 | 97 | 95 | 97 |
(C4) Man. of transport equipment | 15 | 106 | 105 | 104 |
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 7 | 106 | 106 | 104 |
[CL2] Other transport equipment | 8 | 103 | 104 | 103 |
(C5) Other manufacturing | 46 | 102 | 102 | 101 |
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry | 2 | 108 | 111 | 112 |
[CC] Wood, paper, printing | 5 | 105 | 103 | 99 |
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products | 9 | 97 | 100 | 100 |
[CG] Rubber and plastic products | 7 | 103 | 102 | 100 |
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products | 11 | 104 | 102 | 101 |
[CM] Other manufacturing industries | 9 | 97 | 101 | 100 |
- * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
- ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey
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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand