In July 2016, households' confidence decreases again slightlyMonthly consumer confidence survey - July 2016

In July 2016, households' confidence has weakened again slightly: for the second consecutive month, the synthetic confidence index has lost 1 point; it reaches 96 in July, thereby remaining below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 197
Paru le : 27/07/2016
Prochaine parution le : 05/01/2018 at 08:45 - December 2017

Warning: Answers to this survey were collected between June 28th and July 16th 2016. Only 2% of respondents answered after the 14 July attack in Nice.

In July 2016, households' confidence has weakened again slightly: for the second consecutive month, the synthetic confidence index has lost 1 point; it reaches 96 in July, thereby remaining below its long-term average (100).

Personal situation

Past financial situation: decreasing

In July, households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the past twelve months has decreased: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points and thus has fallen back to its lowest level since August 2015. Their opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months is virtually stable (+1 point). Both balances stand below their long-term average.

After a strong fall in June, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases has grown anew (+4 points). Since January 2015, the balance stands above its long-term average.

Expected saving capacity: virtually stable

In July, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity is stable at its long-term average for the fourth consecutive month. The one concerning their expected saving capacity is virtually stable (−1 point), below its long-term average.

In July, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save is virtually stable (+1 point), still neatly below its long-term average.

graph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Tab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016
Av. (1) April May June July
Synthetic index (2) 100 94 98 97 96
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –26 –25 –23 –27
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –13 –9 –10 –9
Current saving capacity 8 8 8 8 8
Expected saving capacity –9 –9 –11 –10 –11
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 –4 –1 2 3
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –11 –3 –12 –8
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –58 –48 –53 –52
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –37 –27 –32 –31
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 49 20 22 25
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –56 –53 –53 –52
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –36 –39 –36 –38
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: virtually stable

After a fall in June, households' opinion of the standard of living in France - past and future - is virtually stable. Both balances have grown by 1 point, remaining below their long-term average.

graph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears growing slightly

After reaching in May their lowest level since 2008, fears concerning unemployment have improved in July for the second consecutive month (+3 points after +2 points in June). However, they stay below their long-term average.

chomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Expected inflation: decreasing

In July, households are almost as numerous as in June to consider that prices increased during the past twelve months. Thus, the corresponding balance remains clearly below its long-term average. The share of households considering that prices are likely to increase during the next 12 months has fallen slightly: the balance has lost 2 points and thereby has moved away anew from its long-term average.

prix_en – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)