13 July 2016

2016- n° 182

In June 2016, consumer prices increased by 0.1% over a month and by 0.2% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - June 2016

In June 2016, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% over a month after +0.4% in May. Seasonally adjusted, it increased also by 0.1%. Year-on-year, the CPI increased by 0.2%, after a stability in May 2016.

This month-on-month increase in June came mainly from the strengthening of petroleum product prices for the fourth month in a row, and from the seasonal rebound in prices of some services at the edge of summer. It was partly offset by the seasonal decline in fresh food and manufactured product prices, with the beginning of summer sales.

In June 2016, energy prices rose as strongly as in the previous month (+2.2%). Year-on-year, they declined by 3.1% (−5.7% in the previous month). The increase over the month was due to petroleum product prices which were still up sharply (+4.0% after + 4.1% in May; −6.1% year-on-year), as a result of the recovery of crude oil prices since the beginning of the year. In detail, the heat fuel prices continued to rise at a fast pace (+5.9% % in June after +8.5%; −11.2% year-on-year). In comparison, the motor fuel price increases were more limited: diesel increased by 4.7% in June (after +4.4% in May; −4.7% year-on-year) and gasoline by 2.6% (after +2.4%; −6.2% year-on-year). Moreover, gas prices were stable in June (−10.0% year-on-year), like electricity fares (+4.1% year-on-year) .

In June 2016, service prices accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.1%), due to the seasonal price increase for some services before the summer holidays. Year-on-year, service prices expanded by 1.0% in June, as in May. Thus, prices of accommodation services increased almost like last year (+5.1%; +4.9% in June 2015). Similarly, airfares climbed (+4.9%); however they remained significantly lower than a year ago (−4.2%) in the wake of past falls in oil prices. By contrast, but also in a seasonal manner, prices of package holidays fell back in June (−2.1%).

In June 2016, food prices weakened by 0.6% (+0.6% year-on-year) owing to the seasonal decline in fresh food prices (−4.0%). Excluding fresh foodstuffs, food prices were broadly stable as in the previous six months (+0.1% year-on-year).

In June 2016, manufactured products prices were down by 0.3% (−0.5% in June 2015; −0.5% year-on-year after −0.6% in the previous month) mainly due to the start of summer sales. Their impact is particularly visible in clothing and footwear (−1.7%; +0.5% over a year), in household textiles (−0.7%; +1.8% year-on-year) and personal effects (−0.8%; 1.9% year-on-year). For other manufactured products, the end of discounts offset the beginning of summer sales. Furniture and furnishings prices edged up (+0.2%) as those of household appliances (+0.1%). In addition, the increase in new cars prices was less pronounced this year in June (+0.5% against +0.9% in 2015; −1.0% year-on-year).

In June 2016, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) grew by 0.1% for the fourth month in a row. Year-on-year, it increased by 0.7%, as in May. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew by 0.1% over one month and by 0.3% year-on-year (after +0.1% in May).

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 30 June, the monthly and annual rates of change in the CPI are unchanged. The monthly rate of change in the HICP has been slightly lowered by 0.1 points, whereas its annual rate is unchanged. Furthermore, the HICP indices from January to May 2016 have been slightly revised (see explanatory note for details).