23 June 2016
2016- n° 164In June 2016, the business climate is practically stable in retail trade and in trade
and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - June 2016
In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is practically stable, according to the managers surveyed in June 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 103. It remains above its long term average (100).
Warning: from this publication, the business climate synthetic indicator is calculated with a new method (cf. methodology), which leads to a slight revision of the series until May 2016. Besides, two new business climate indicators are published from now on, on one hand for retail trade, on the other hand for trade and repair of the motor vehicles.
In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is practically stable, according to the managers surveyed in June 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 103. It remains above its long term average (100).
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
In June, more retailers declare a fall in their activity over the last few months
More traders than in May have declared a fall in their past activity. However, the corresponding balance of opinion has stayed above its average. About the next few months, the balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook have decreased slightly. Yet, these balances remain above their average.
Stocks have been estimated virtually stable, close to their standard level for four months.
More retailers than last month expect falls in prices. The corresponding balance is significantly below its average from now on.
tableautab1_en – Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Ave. (1) | Mar 16 | April 16 | May 16 | June 16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business climate | 100 | 100 | 99 | 104 | 103 |
General business outlook | –30 | –21 | –22 | –17 | –21 |
Recent sales | –7 | –5 | 1 | 4 | –5 |
Expected sales | –3 | 2 | –1 | 2 | –1 |
Ordering intentions | –9 | –5 | –11 | –3 | –4 |
Stocks | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
Past selling prices (2) | –7 | –12 | –10 | ||
Expected selling prices | –3 | –4 | –6 | –6 | –9 |
Cash position (2) | –15 | –15 | –14 | ||
Workforce size: recent trend | –1 | –6 | –6 | –4 | –2 |
Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –7 | –6 | –5 | –4 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
Slight rise in the balances on employment
Both balances concerning recent and expected workforce trends have slightly risen for two months and are now close to their average. In retail trade, the balances are still below their average. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, they are significantly above it.
In retail trade, the business climate indicator is practically stable
In retail trade, the business climate indicator is practically stable. It stands at 98, slightly below its average (100).
The balance on past sales has slipped back: in non-specialised trade, it has strongly fallen and has gone below its mean level. In specialised trade, the downturn is more moderate, but the balance has remained below its average for four months.
Overall, slightly more retailers expect a decline in their activity: the three balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook have decreased a little. The first one has gone below its average, the second one has reached it and the third one has stayed above it.
In retail trade as a whole, stocks have been estimated a little higher, the balance returning to its standard level.
In both non-specialised and specialised retail trade, the balance on expected prices has decreased, diverging from its long-term average.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, business climate remains very favourable
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has gradually progressed since the beginning of 2016 and stands at 113 in June. It has been above its mean level since the end of 2014.
The balances concerning past and expected sales have barely changed, while the ordering intentions one has recovered. Each of the three balances stands significantly above its average.
Stocks have been estimated lower and the associated balance has gone below its standard level.
The balance on expected prices has diminished for the fourth month in a row.
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiquegraph_climat_ca_cd_en – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
Ave. (1) | Mar 16 | April 16 | May 16 | June 16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail trade - Global data | |||||
Business climate | 100 | 94 | 94 | 99 | 98 |
Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –25 | –24 | –20 | –25 |
Recent sales | –6 | –10 | –4 | 1 | –12 |
Expected sales | –1 | –2 | –3 | 0 | –4 |
Ordering intentions | –7 | –9 | –15 | –3 | –7 |
Stocks | 9 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –16 | –15 | ||
Expected selling prices | –5 | –6 | –9 | –6 | –10 |
Cash position (2) | –13 | –15 | –14 | ||
Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | –4 | –6 | –4 | –2 |
Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –9 | –7 | –6 | –4 |
Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
Recent sales | –2 | –6 | 6 | 14 | –6 |
Expected sales | 6 | 6 | –1 | 10 | 5 |
Ordering intentions | 1 | 3 | –12 | 9 | 2 |
Stocks | 7 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 8 |
Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –15 | –23 | ||
Expected selling prices | –5 | –6 | –10 | –4 | –8 |
Cash position (2) | –7 | –5 | –4 | ||
Specialised retail trade | |||||
Recent sales | –11 | –14 | –15 | –16 | –19 |
Expected sales | –8 | –11 | –8 | –8 | –14 |
Ordering intentions | –17 | –23 | –16 | –19 | –19 |
Stocks | 13 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –15 | –6 | ||
Expected selling prices | –5 | –6 | –8 | –8 | –12 |
Cash position (2) | –23 | –27 | –25 | ||
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
Business climate | 100 | 111 | 112 | 112 | 113 |
Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –8 | –14 | –6 | –9 |
Recent sales | –9 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
Expected sales | –8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Ordering intentions | –12 | 4 | 2 | –3 | 5 |
Stocks | 15 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 13 |
Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 3 | 2 | ||
Expected selling prices | 4 | 0 | 2 | –4 | –6 |
Cash position (2) | –25 | –16 | –14 | ||
Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | –14 | –3 | –1 | 1 |
Workforce size: future trend | –7 | –1 | 0 | 0 | –1 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)