27 January 2016
2016- n° 24In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightly Monthly consumer confidence survey - January 2016
In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightly. The synthetic confidence index gained 1 point and returned to its level of November 2015 (97), a level however below its long-term average (100).
In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightly. The synthetic confidence index gained 1 point and returned to its level of November 2015 (97), a level however below its long-term average (100).
Personal situation
Financial situation: virtually stable
In January, households' opinion of their personal financial situation was virtually stable. The balance of opinion regarding the past changes gained 1 point, while the one of future changes lost 1 point. These two balances remained below their long-term average.
However, households were more numerous to consider it was a suitable time to make major purchases: the balance of opinion rebounded by 8 points and returned to its level of September 2015, which is above its long term average.
Saving capacity: slight decrease
In January, households' opinion of their saving capacity deteriorated slightly. The balance of opinion on their current saving capacity lost 2 points, while the one of their expected saving capacity diminished by 1 point. Yet, these two balances stood slightly above their long term averages.
Households were less numerous to consider it was a suitable time to save: the balance lost 4 points, and diverged further from its long term average.
graphiquegraph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2015 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Av. (1) | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 96 | 97 | 96 | 97 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | −19 | −24 | −24 | −25 | −24 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | −4 | −10 | −10 | −7 | −8 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Expected saving capacity | −10 | −5 | −4 | −5 | −6 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | −14 | −12 | −14 | −14 | –6 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –43 | –54 | –53 | –55 | –55 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –23 | –30 | –29 | –29 | –25 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 32 | 60 | 34 | 45 | 34 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –13 | –50 | –49 | –51 | –50 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –41 | –41 | –38 | –39 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
Economic situation in France
Standard of living in France: expectations improving
In January, households were more optimistic regarding their expected standard of living in France: the corresponding balance grew by 4 points and reached its highest level since October 2007, a level still slightly below its long term average. The balance of the past standard of living was stable, at a level largely below its long term average.
graphiquegraph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living
- Source: INSEE
Unemployment: fears decreasing
In January, the fears of households concerning unemployment diminished sharply anew (–11 points); they returned to their level of November 2015, slightly above their long term average.
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
Inflation: virtually stable
In January, households' opinion of prices was virtually stable. They were almost as numerous as in December to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months (−1 point), and to expect a rise during the next 12 months (+1 point). The two balances remained clearly below their long term average.
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
Revision
Because of the update of the seasonal adjustment coefficients, the balances and the synthetic confidence index have been revised over the past months; in particular the synthetic confidence index is estimated at 97 in November, against 96 in the previous publication.
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