In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightlyMonthly consumer confidence survey - January 2016

In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightly. The synthetic confidence index gained 1 point and returned to its level of November 2015 (97), a level however below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 24
Paru le : 27/01/2016
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In January 2016, households' confidence improved slightly. The synthetic confidence index gained 1 point and returned to its level of November 2015 (97), a level however below its long-term average (100).

Personal situation

Financial situation: virtually stable

In January, households' opinion of their personal financial situation was virtually stable. The balance of opinion regarding the past changes gained 1 point, while the one of future changes lost 1 point. These two balances remained below their long-term average.

However, households were more numerous to consider it was a suitable time to make major purchases: the balance of opinion rebounded by 8 points and returned to its level of September 2015, which is above its long term average.

Saving capacity: slight decrease

In January, households' opinion of their saving capacity deteriorated slightly. The balance of opinion on their current saving capacity lost 2 points, while the one of their expected saving capacity diminished by 1 point. Yet, these two balances stood slightly above their long term averages.

Households were less numerous to consider it was a suitable time to save: the balance lost 4 points, and diverged further from its long term average.

graph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Tab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2015 2016
Av. (1) Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Synthetic index (2) 100 96 97 96 97
Financial sit., past 12 m. −19 −24 −24 −25 −24
Financial sit., next 12 m. −4 −10 −10 −7 −8
Current saving capacity 8 8 10 11 9
Expected saving capacity −10 −5 −4 −5 −6
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 6 4 6 2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. −14 −12 −14 −14 –6
Standard of living, past 12 m. –43 –54 –53 –55 –55
Standard of living, next 12 m. –23 –30 –29 –29 –25
Unemployment, next 12 m. 32 60 34 45 34
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –13 –50 –49 –51 –50
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –41 –41 –38 –39
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: expectations improving

In January, households were more optimistic regarding their expected standard of living in France: the corresponding balance grew by 4 points and reached its highest level since October 2007, a level still slightly below its long term average. The balance of the past standard of living was stable, at a level largely below its long term average.

graph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears decreasing

In January, the fears of households concerning unemployment diminished sharply anew (–11 points); they returned to their level of November 2015, slightly above their long term average.

chomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Inflation: virtually stable

In January, households' opinion of prices was virtually stable. They were almost as numerous as in December to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months (−1 point), and to expect a rise during the next 12 months (+1 point). The two balances remained clearly below their long term average.

prix_en – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Revision

Because of the update of the seasonal adjustment coefficients, the balances and the synthetic confidence index have been revised over the past months; in particular the synthetic confidence index is estimated at 97 in November, against 96 in the previous publication.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)