In March 2015, the business climate in manufacturing industry stays close to its average levelMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - March 2015

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2015, the business climate in industry is nearly stable: the composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point and remains at a level (99) very close to its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 66
Paru le : 25/03/2015
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2017 at 08:45 - December 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2015, the business climate in industry is nearly stable: the composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point and remains at a level (99) very close to its long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator has increased and remains in the zone indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production has fallen: it has lost 8 points and lies below its long term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations has also decreased, but stays at a level that is above its long term average.

Conversely, both global order books and export order books have improved compared to February. The balance of opinion on export order books becomes slightly higher to its long term average.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, has soared in March. It has increased by 8 points and is now clearly above its long term average, reaching its highest level since July 2011.

Finally, the balances on stocks of finished products remain stable at a level below their normal level, at the lowest point since June 2011.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 March 15
Composite indicator (2) 100 99 100 100 99
Past activity 4 4 –2 0 –8
Finished-goods inventory 13 16 13 4 4
Global order books –18 –20 –21 –25 –22
Export order books –14 –15 –15 –15 –13
Personal production expectations 5 5 13 11 7
General production expectations –9 –15 –10 –8 0
  • (1) Long term average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has plunged and becomes lower than its long term average. Conversely, the balance on expected activity has progressed and gets back to its long term mean. Stocks of finished products are deemed virtually stable at a level less than normal. Global and export order books have gone up and are higher than their long term average.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, industrialists judge that their past activity has dropped. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products remains slightly below its normal level. The global and foreign demands are stable below their normal level according to the industrialists of this sector. The balance of opinion on production expectations is nearly stable, but remains at a lower level than its long term average.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity has rebounded at a level significantly higher than its normal level. The industrialists’ opinion on the global and export order books has improved: the corresponding balances of opinion are higher than normal. The level of stocks of finished goods has been judged higher but remains below its normal level. However, the production prospects have considerably fallen and have reached a level lower than their long term average.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has decreased at a level below its long term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products has increased but remains below its normal level. The global order books have improved and the corresponding balance of opinion is above its long term average. The balance of opinion on expected activity has slightly declined to a level significantly higher than its long term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the business managers’ opinion on their past activity has deteriorated with a balance of opinion lower than its long term average in all sectors except the manufacture of basic metals. The balance of opinion on expected activity has bounced back in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in that of basic metals, whereas it has diminished in that of chemicals and in that of rubber and plastic products. The levels of global order books are nearly stable, close to their long term average, except in the manufacture of chemical products where it has fallen. The export order books have increased for the manufacture of basic metals. At last, finished-goods inventories have grown in all sectors, in particular in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products where they got closer to their long term average.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Jan. 15 Feb. 15 March 15
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 23 14 0
Finished-goods inventory 12 9 8 9
Global order books –18 –9 –17 –16
Export order books –13 –9 –14 –6
Personal production expectations 7 7 –3 7
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –5 –2 –12
Finished-goods inventory 17 11 14 15
Global order books –24 –39 –35 –34
Export order books –21 –35 –29 –28
Personal production expectations 2 –1 –8 –7
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 –4 –5 12
Finished-goods inventory 14 8 –12 –4
Global order books –14 –12 –16 3
Export order books –12 –18 –19 –16
Personal production expectations 8 45 48 33
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 –12 –24 18
Finished-goods inventory 10 3 –24 –14
Global order books –20 –22 –23 5
Export order books –14 –1 –4 4
Personal production expectations 3 49 61 –1
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 23 18 9
Finished-goods inventory 20 14 5 10
Global order books –5 1 –7 0
Export order books –10 –36 –35 –36
Personal production expectations 15 33 42 39
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 1 6 –7
Finished-goods inventory 10 10 6 9
Global order books –20 –23 –24 –25
Export order books –13 –6 –7 –6
Personal production expectations 4 9 2 6
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 12 8 4
Finished-goods inventory 7 5 9 11
Global order books –13 –22 –14 –21
Export order books –8 –8 –4 –8
Personal production expectations 13 5 6 0
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 5 49 –28
Finished-goods inventory 9 3 –37 3
Global order books 3 –3 0 0
Export order books 10 0 1 1
Personal production expectations 15 45 6 42
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 –9 –18 –16
Finished-goods inventory 11 19 7 20
Global order books –25 –46 –48 –42
Export order books –18 –17 –16 –18
Personal production expectations –1 3 6 3
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 –12 9 6
Finished-goods inventory 7 14 9 9
Global order books –20 –22 –26 –25
Export order books –16 5 –7 2
Personal production expectations 1 10 –9 5
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey