25 November 2014
2014- n° 267In November 2014, the business climate is almost stable in services and has not changed
much since September 2013 Monthly survey of services - November 2014
According to business managers, the economic situation in services remains almost stable in November 2014. The business climate composite indicator has increased by one point and stands at 94, a level which has not varied much since September 2013 and stays below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
All services
According to business managers, the economic situation in services remains almost stable in November 2014. The business climate composite indicator has increased by one point and stands at 94, a level which has not varied much since September 2013 and stays below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, remains deteriorated.
graphiqueGraph1 – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favorable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavorable).
The balances of opinion on past and expected activity have slightly recovered but remain below their long-term average. Business leaders’ expectations on demand have not varied much since July and remain pessimistic.
The balances of opinion on past and expected employment have gone down and stand below their long-term average.
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 | Oct. 14 | Nov. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 92 | 93 | 94 |
| General outlook | –8 | –18 | –17 | –19 | –17 |
| Past activity | 2 | –8 | –4 | –5 | –3 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –3 | –9 | –6 | –3 |
| Expected demand | –1 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –7 |
| Business situation | –3 | –10 | –12 | –8 | –6 |
| Past selling prices | –3 | –9 | –10 | –9 | –8 |
| Expected selling prices | –2 | –9 | –10 | –10 | –10 |
| Past employment | 3 | 1 | –1 | 4 | –1 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | –3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –2 | 0 | 0 | –1 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | –4 | –3 | –5 | –6 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | 0 | 3 | –1 | 0 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 1 | –1 | –1 | –1 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: Insee
graphiqueGraph2 – Activity
Road transport
In road freight and mail activities, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity have recovered. They stand above their long-term average. Business leaders’ expectations on demand are also more optimistic than in October.
Accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, business managers consider that their activity has improved during the recent period. Their business prospects on activity and demand over the next few months have also improved substantially. The corresponding balances stand above their long-term average. Nevertheless there are more business leaders than in October who anticipate a decline in employment.
Information and communication
In information and communication, the balance of opinion on past activity has dropped and stands far below its long-term trend. Business managers’ expectations of activity and demand have also decreased.
Real estate
In real estate, business leaders consider that their past activity has recovered sharply. The corresponding balance has reached the level of its long-term average. However, the balance of opinion on expected activity has decreased slightly. The balance on expected demand is steady.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the balances of opinion and past and expected activity are stable. However, business managers’ expectations on demand are more pessimistic than in October.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, the balances of opinion on past activity, expected activity and expected demand have gone up. However they are still below their long-term average.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Past activity
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 | Oct. 14 | Nov. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –2 | –10 | –16 | –7 |
| Expected activity | –9 | –16 | –8 | –10 | –5 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –20 | –13 | –10 | –8 |
| Past employment | –8 | –11 | –8 | –16 | –7 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –8 | –1 | –9 | –8 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | 0 | 12 | –3 | 4 |
| Expected activity | –7 | 1 | –19 | –10 | –2 |
| Expected demand | –9 | –9 | –12 | –11 | –5 |
| Past employment | –4 | –3 | 13 | 7 | –3 |
| Expected employment | –5 | –2 | –6 | –13 | –21 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 9 | –13 | –14 | –1 | –11 |
| Expected activity | 11 | –2 | –12 | –8 | –9 |
| Expected demand | 11 | –4 | –11 | –5 | –8 |
| Past employment | 6 | –6 | –12 | –9 | –4 |
| Expected employment | 11 | –7 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 4 | 1 | –2 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 1 | –2 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| Past employment | 3 | 0 | –6 | 8 | –3 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | –9 | –4 | –8 | –8 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –10 | –14 | –7 | –8 |
| Expected demand | –5 | –14 | –13 | –9 | –14 |
| Past employment | 1 | –2 | –3 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 0 | –7 | –5 | –3 | –8 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 6 | –4 | –2 | –4 | –2 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | 2 | –1 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 3 | –3 | –2 | –3 | 0 |
| Past employment | 8 | 8 | –1 | 12 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
