In August 2014, the business climate in manufacturing industry deterioratesMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - August 2014

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2014, the business climate in industry has deteriorated compared to the previous month. The composite indicator has decreased by one point and stands at four points below its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 191
Paru le : 27/08/2014
Prochaine parution le : 23/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2014, the business climate in industry has deteriorated compared to the previous month. The composite indicator has decreased by one point and stands at four points below its long-term average.

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator is nearly stable compared to July and is in the zone indicating an economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production has slightly decreased and is now below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectation has sharply gone down : it is now clearly below its long-term average.

Both global and export order books are nearly stable compared to the previous month and a majority of industrialists consider them as below their long-term average.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, is nearly stable, at a level which is below its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products are stable and are considered close to their normal level.

tableau1 – Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14
Composite indicator (2) 100 99 97 97 96
Past activity 4 11 10 4 2
Finished-goods inventory 13 13 12 12 12
Global order books –18 –23 –27 –23 –22
Export order books –14 –21 –24 –21 –19
Personal production expectations 5 4 2 0 –7
General production expectations –9 –12 –19 –19 –20
  • (1) Average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has clearly decreased and is below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have increased and are considered as above their long-term average. While global order books are stable and their level is considered as normal, export order books have slightly increased but are still described below their average level. The balance on expected activity is nearly stable and is clearly below its long-term level.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity has slightly recovered and is now considered as close to its normal level. Stocks of finished products are nearly stable and are still described as high. As for the global and foreign demand, it has improved but is still considered as very deteriorated by the industrialists of this sector. Their production expectations remain very bad-biased over the next months.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the activity , which was considered as sharply increasing in the two last surveys, is now described as stable. The expected production, which were also considered as favourable in the two previous surveys, has sharply now gone down. As for the opinion of the industrialists on the global and export order books, it is nearly stable and the corresponding balances stand markedly below their long-term averages. The finished-goods inventory level is nearly stable and is considered as close to the normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In August, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has markedly decreased but stands at a level above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are nearly stable and are still considered as low. Global and foreign order books have nearly not changed but while the first are described as still high, the second are considered as weakly filled. According to the industrialists from this area, activity is likely to improve but to remain weaklier than the normal.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

According to business managers, the past activity has clearly improved in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and that of chemicals, but remains deteriorated in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and is stable in that of basic metals. The production expectations remain bad-biased in the manufacture of chemicals and in that of rubber and plastic products, and have deteriorated again in the manufacture of basic metals, while they have improved in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products even if they remain still sluggish. While the level of global order books is still described as unusually low in all the sectors, foreign order books have deteriorated anew in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products, remain good filled in that of basic metals, is weakly filled in that of pharmaceutical products and are still considered as normal in that of chemicals. At last, finished-goods inventory have gone up in the manufacture of basic metals and has weakened in the three other sectors : while they are considered close to their normal level in the manufacture of basic metals and in that of rubber and plastic products, they are described as low in the two other sectors.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** June 14 July 14 Aug. 14
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 6 1 –4
Finished-goods inventory 12 10 15 18
Global order books –18 –21 –18 –18
Export order books –13 –22 –22 –19
Personal production expectations 7 5 0 –1
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 4 –12 –1 3
Finished-goods inventory 17 16 26 25
Global order books –23 –41 –45 –40
Export order books –21 –40 –45 –36
Personal production expectations 3 –7 –18 –16
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 47 46 14
Finished-goods inventory 14 28 10 9
Global order books –14 –24 –23 –21
Export order books –12 –35 –32 –28
Personal production expectations 8 15 20 1
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 60 59 5
Finished-goods inventory 10 9 10 8
Global order books –20 –42 –38 –36
Export order books –14 –39 –38 –34
Personal production expectations 3 12 41 –14
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 29 33 22
Finished-goods inventory 20 52 11 9
Global order books –6 0 –3 –1
Export order books –9 –30 –26 –22
Personal production expectations 14 7 4 8
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 2 –6 1
Finished-goods inventory 10 6 7 8
Global order books –20 –24 –22 –22
Export order books –13 –15 –7 –9
Personal production expectations 4 –2 –10 –5
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 9 –8 2
Finished-goods inventory 7 8 7 2
Global order books –13 –16 –21 –16
Export order books –8 –9 –7 –7
Personal production expectations 14 –6 –1 –2
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 17 1 –36 50
Finished-goods inventory 9 2 0 –4
Global order books 3 –3 –1 –2
Export order books 10 –2 0 –1
Personal production expectations 15 –44 –47 –2
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 –14 –12 –12
Finished-goods inventory 10 11 16 9
Global order books –25 –39 –43 –43
Export order books –18 –24 –23 –33
Personal production expectations –1 –16 –27 –25
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 8 1 0
Finished-goods inventory 7 –1 1 10
Global order books –20 –32 –25 –25
Export order books –16 –26 3 1
Personal production expectations 1 0 –4 –8
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe
  • of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee