In December 2014, the business climate is stable in manufacturing industryMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - December 2014

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2014, the business climate in industry remains stable. The composite indicator which measures it is stable at a level slightly below its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 291
Paru le : 19/12/2014
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2017 at 08:45 - October 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2014, the business climate in industry remains stable. The composite indicator which measures it is stable at a level slightly below its long-term average.

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator is in the zone indicating an economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production has increased by three points and stands at its long-term average. By contrast, the balance of opinion on personal production expectation has decreased and is near its long-term average.

Whereas global order books are stable, export order books have gone up (+4 points). However, a majority of industrialists considers both of them as below their long-term average.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, remains stable at the same November low level.

Finally, the balance on stocks of finished products is considered close to its normal level.

tableau1 – Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14
Composite indicator (2) 100 96 98 99 99
Past activity 4 –5 –1 1 4
Finished-goods inventory 13 11 12 12 14
Global order books –18 –24 –23 –20 –21
Export order books –14 –20 –22 –20 –16
Personal production expectations 5 2 8 7 4
General production expectations –9 –18 –22 –16 –16
  • (1) Long term average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity keeps on improving and is closer to its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have fixed at a level close to the normal level. Global order books have gone up, whereas export order books have stabilised at their normal level. The balance on expected activity has again decreased and is now at a level below its long-term average.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, the opinion of industrialists about their past activity is less negative but remains below its long term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products remains stable at a normal level. The global and foreign demand is considered as very deteriorated and remains at a level far below its normal level according to the industrialists of this sector. The balance of opinion on production expectations has decreased and remains below its long term average.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity has sharply declined and is closer its long term average. The expected production is deteriorated. The opinion of the industrialists has gone down on the global order books whereas it has slightly improved on the export order books. Both of balances are below their long-term averages. The finished-goods inventory level rermains below its normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has sharply improved and stands at a level close to its long-term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products has decreased and moves away its normal level. While global order books are described as high, foreign order books are considered as weakly filled. The balance of opinion on expected activity is stable to a level above its long-term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the business managers’ opinion on their past activity is near its normal level. In the manufactures of rubber and plastic products and in that of pharmaceutical products, the balance of opinion has sharply risen whereas it has decreased in the manufacture of basic metals and in that of chemicals. Industrialists are more optimistic on their production expectations except in manufacture of basic metals. The levels of global and export order books are better than in November, specially in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products. While global order books are below their long term average, foreign order books are above their normal level.

At last, the balance of opinion on finished-goods inventory is nearly stable in “other manufacturing”. The increase in the manufacture of basic metals, where stocks are considered close to their normal level, is counterbalanced by the decrease in that of chemicals, where stocks are judged low.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 –7 3 5
Finished-goods inventory 12 18 12 13
Global order books –18 –20 –18 –12
Export order books –14 –21 –13 –13
Personal production expectations 7 20 13 2
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 4 –16 –12 –7
Finished-goods inventory 17 18 19 19
Global order books –23 –40 –39 –43
Export order books –21 –35 –38 –39
Personal production expectations 2 –11 –5 –8
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 24 18 7
Finished-goods inventory 14 9 6 7
Global order books –14 –22 –13 –19
Export order books –12 –30 –23 –21
Personal production expectations 8 –4 13 –5
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 27 25 5
Finished-goods inventory 10 5 –3 2
Global order books –20 –40 –27 –33
Export order books –14 –21 –23 –20
Personal production expectations 2 –53 10 –23
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 3 0 14
Finished-goods inventory 20 14 19 13
Global order books –5 2 6 1
Export order books –10 –40 –22 –22
Personal production expectations 15 41 31 32
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 –5 5 2
Finished-goods inventory 10 7 8 9
Global order books –20 –26 –27 –25
Export order books –13 –13 –12 –4
Personal production expectations 4 9 2 6
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 –2 4 –5
Finished-goods inventory 7 2 6 –5
Global order books –13 –18 –23 –26
Export order books –8 –14 –18 –16
Personal production expectations 14 8 7 12
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 –40 49 55
Finished-goods inventory 9 3 5 7
Global order books 3 –3 –3 36
Export order books 10 0 1 49
Personal production expectations 15 43 –38 –4
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 –20 –26 –17
Finished-goods inventory 11 14 17 18
Global order books –25 –45 –48 –47
Export order books –18 –22 –35 –21
Personal production expectations –2 –16 –7 –2
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 –5 15 3
Finished-goods inventory 7 10 4 13
Global order books –20 –27 –33 –26
Export order books –16 –17 –7 –4
Personal production expectations 1 12 5 1
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source : Insee - Monthly business surv