22 October 2015

2015- n° 260

In the third quarter 2015, demand prospects in the manufacturing industry have continued to improve Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2015

In October 2015, more industrialists than in July judge that global demand has climbed in the past months, the corresponding balance being above its mean level. However, the balance of opinion on foreign demand has dropped to its long period average. Over the next three months, more industrialists anticipate a further improvement of global demand and especially of foreign demand; the corresponding balances of opinion are above average. Otherwise, less industrialists have indicated difficulties of supply only (15% against 21% in July), that proportion has become inferior to its long-term average.

Since April 2015, the industrialists have considered that the pressure on production capacity is almost unchanged. The production capacity utilisation rate is virtually stable compared to the previous quarter (82.5%). Since the third quarter of 2008, production capacity has been less used in the manufacturing industry than it was on average between 1994 and 2007.

However, an increasing number of industrialists consider that they could not produce more if they received more orders: the balance on production bottlenecks, already above the normal, has continued to increase.

In October 2015, less industrialists than in July reported a decrease of the workforce during the past three months. Over the next few months, industrialists are also less to forecast job losses.

Less than a third of the industrialists have experienced hiring difficulties; this part is virtually stable since April 2013 at its long-term average.

According to the business managers in the manufacturing industry, wages have increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2015.

The balance of opinion on weekly working time is virtually stable. Slightly more industrialists than in July anticipate an increase in this working time over the next few months.

According to industrialists, selling prices in the manufacturing industry dropped in the third quarter of 2015 (–1.5% after +0.1%); they forecast a further decline for the next quarter (–1.4%).

Almost as many industrialists, as in the previous quarter, have experienced cash-flow problems (13%). This proportion stands below its mean level.

In October 2015, business managers judge that their competitive position has deteriorated in all the markets. The corresponding balances have fallen and have become inferior to their long-term average. However, general exportation prospects are promising: the corresponding balance is virtually stable, significantly above its long period average.