In Q3 2014 GDP increased by 0.3%Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 3rd Quarter 2014

In Q3 2014, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a slight decline in Q2 (–0.1%).

Informations rapides
No 259
Paru le : 14/11/2014
Prochaine parution le : 29/11/2017 at 08:45 - third quarter 2017

In Q3 2014, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a slight decline in Q2 (–0.1%).

Households’ consumption expenditure kept increasing moderately (+0.2% after +0.3%). General government expenditure increased by 0.8% in the last quarter (after +0.5%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) went down again (–0.6% after –0.8%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was still going up and contributed for +0.2 points to GDP growth (after 0.1 points in Q2). Exports recovered (+0.5% after –0.1%) while imports accelerated (+1.1% after +0.3%). The foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (–0.2 points after –0.1 points in previous quarter),while changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after –0.1 points).

Total production recovered

After an almost stable second quarter (–0.1%), production in goods and services recovered in Q3 (+0.5%). Manufacturing output bounced back (+0.5% after –0.8%) notably due to coke and refined petroleum industry and transport equipment. Production in tradable services slightly sped up in Q3 (+0.5% after +0.1%). On the contrary, output in construction was still falling (–1.0% after –1.4%).

Households’ consumption slightly deccelerated, while general government’s one accelerated.

In Q3 2014, households’ consumption expenditure slightly deccelerated (+0.2% after +0.3%). Heating expenditure kept rising but at a slower rate (+1.2% after +2.2%). Consumption in food products slightly decreased (–0.3% after +0.9%) while the expenditure in manufactured goods picked up moderately (+0.4% after –0.2%): consumption of equipment goods kept increasing significantly (+3.0% after +2.8%) while clothing expenditure declined again (–0.3% after –2.2%); car purchase also slowed down (–0.9% after +0.5%). Besides, expenditure on services moderately increased (+0.2% after +0.1%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
Imports 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.8
Household' consumption *expenditure 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 2.0 1.9
GFCF -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.6
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2
Households -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -3.1 -6.0
General government -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -1.2 1.1 -0.4
Exports 1.1 0.5 -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.9
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3
Inventory changes -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.4
Net foreign trade 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.3

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.4 29.9 29.4   29.8  
    Household purchasing power -0.3 0.9 0.5   0.0 0.9
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components
    2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Production of branches 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6
    Goods 0.0 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -0.2 0.1
    Manufacturing Industry 0.2 0.8 -0.8 0.5 -0.6 0.3
    Construction -0.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -2.9
    Market services 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1
    Non-market services 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.5
    Household consumption 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
    Food products 0.9 -1.0 0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.2
    Energy -1.6 -3.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 -4.4
    Engineered goods 1.3 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -1.0 1.4
    Services 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6
    GFCF -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.6
    Manufactured goods 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.4
    Construction -0.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -1.6 -3.9
    Market services 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5

      Tab4 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
      HDI -0.3 1.3 0.5   0.6 1.4
      Household purchasing power -0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.5 0.8 0.3 -0.6 0.4
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.1
      Saving rate (level) 14.5 15.6 15.7 15.1  
      Financial saving rate (level) 5.4 6.6 7.0   5.8  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      level (in percent), data WDA-SA
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013
      Profit share 29.4 29.9 29.4   29.8
      Investment ratio 22.7 22.5 22.5   22.6
      Savings ratio 17.2 17.1 17.1   17.1
      Self-financing ratio 75.6 75.7 76.0   75.7

        Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

        level, data WDA-SA
        Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
        2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013
        In billions of euros      
        Total expenditure 305.1 307.8 308.9   1207.7
        Total receipts 284.1 286.0 285.0   1120.4
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.0 -21.8 -23.9   -87.2
        In % of GDP      
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -4.1 -4.5   -4.1

          General government expenditure accelerated (+0.8% after +0.5%) due to medicines expenditure and health services in particular.

          Investment kept declining

          After four consecutive quarters of decline, global GFCF shrank again in Q3 2014 (–0.6% after –0.8%). Investment in construction kept falling, but the decline lessened (–1.4% after –1.7%). Expenditure on manufactured goods went down again (–0.2% after –0.5%): the decrease in transport equipment (–1.3% after –0.4%) is partly compensated by the increase in equipment goods (+0.6% after –0.9%). Investment in tradable services increased slowly (+0.2%, as in the previous quarter).

          The decline in investment is lower in non-financial corporations (–0.1% after –0.5%) than in general government (–1.2% after –0.7%) and households (–1.7% after –1.9%).

          Exports and imports sped up

          In Q3 2014, exportations slightly bounced back (+0.5% after –0.1%). Exportations in manufactured goods levelled off (0.0% after –0.6%): while exportations of transport equipment shrank, those of pharmacy and coke and refined petroleum sharply rose.

          Importations increased at a steady pace (+1.1% after +0.3%), espacially for transport equipment.

          Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP: –0.2 points in the 3rd quarter (after –0.1 points).

          Changes in inventories contributed positively to the activity

          Changes in inventories had a positive contribution to GDP growth: +0.3 points after –0.1 points in the 2nd quarter. Transport equipement contributed for +0.5 points to GDP (after a neutral contribution), thus it overcompensated the contribution of the trade balance of these goods.

          Revisions

          In Q2 the growth rate of GDP is slightly downscaled (from 0.0% to –0.1%) compared to previous release, due to revision in seasonal adjustment (in household consumption of energy, notably). The growth overhang for 2014 has been revised by +0.1 points and it now reaches +0.4%.

          Documentation

          Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)