Informations rapides
14 November 2014
2014 - n° 259
In Q3 2014 GDP increased by 0.3%Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 3rd Quarter 2014

In Q3 2014, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a slight decline in Q2 (–0.1%).

Informations rapides
No 259
Paru le : Paru le 14/11/2014

In Q3 2014, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a slight decline in Q2 (–0.1%).

Households’ consumption expenditure kept increasing moderately (+0.2% after +0.3%). General government expenditure increased by 0.8% in the last quarter (after +0.5%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) went down again (–0.6% after –0.8%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was still going up and contributed for +0.2 points to GDP growth (after 0.1 points in Q2). Exports recovered (+0.5% after –0.1%) while imports accelerated (+1.1% after +0.3%). The foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (–0.2 points after –0.1 points in previous quarter),while changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after –0.1 points).

Total production recovered

After an almost stable second quarter (–0.1%), production in goods and services recovered in Q3 (+0.5%). Manufacturing output bounced back (+0.5% after –0.8%) notably due to coke and refined petroleum industry and transport equipment. Production in tradable services slightly sped up in Q3 (+0.5% after +0.1%). On the contrary, output in construction was still falling (–1.0% after –1.4%).

Households’ consumption slightly deccelerated, while general government’s one accelerated.

In Q3 2014, households’ consumption expenditure slightly deccelerated (+0.2% after +0.3%). Heating expenditure kept rising but at a slower rate (+1.2% after +2.2%). Consumption in food products slightly decreased (–0.3% after +0.9%) while the expenditure in manufactured goods picked up moderately (+0.4% after –0.2%): consumption of equipment goods kept increasing significantly (+3.0% after +2.8%) while clothing expenditure declined again (–0.3% after –2.2%); car purchase also slowed down (–0.9% after +0.5%). Besides, expenditure on services moderately increased (+0.2% after +0.1%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1GDP and its main components

Tab1Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes (percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
Imports 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.8
Household' consumption *expenditure 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 2.0 1.9
GFCF -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.6
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2
Households -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -3.1 -6.0
General government -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -1.2 1.1 -0.4
Exports 1.1 0.5 -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.9
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3
Inventory changes -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.4
Net foreign trade 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.3

    Tab2Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
    2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.4 29.9 29.4   29.8  
    Household purchasing power -0.3 0.9 0.5   0.0 0.9
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
    2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Production of branches 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6
    Goods 0.0 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -0.2 0.1
    Manufacturing Industry 0.2 0.8 -0.8 0.5 -0.6 0.3
    Construction -0.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -2.9
    Market services 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1
    Non-market services 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.5
    Household consumption 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
    Food products 0.9 -1.0 0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.2
    Energy -1.6 -3.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 -4.4
    Engineered goods 1.3 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -1.0 1.4
    Services 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6
    GFCF -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.6
    Manufactured goods 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.4
    Construction -0.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -1.6 -3.9
    Market services 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5

      Tab4Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
      2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013 2014 (ovhg)
      HDI -0.3 1.3 0.5   0.6 1.4
      Household purchasing power -0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.5 0.8 0.3 -0.6 0.4
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.1
      Saving rate (level) 14.5 15.6 15.7 15.1  
      Financial saving rate (level) 5.4 6.6 7.0   5.8  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      level (in percent), data WDA-SA
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account (level (in percent), data WDA-SA) -
      2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013
      Profit share 29.4 29.9 29.4   29.8
      Investment ratio 22.7 22.5 22.5   22.6
      Savings ratio 17.2 17.1 17.1   17.1
      Self-financing ratio 75.6 75.7 76.0   75.7

        Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

        level, data WDA-SA
        Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, data WDA-SA) -
        2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2013
        In billions of euros      
        Total expenditure 305.1 307.8 308.9   1207.7
        Total receipts 284.1 286.0 285.0   1120.4
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.0 -21.8 -23.9   -87.2
        In % of GDP      
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -4.1 -4.5   -4.1

          General government expenditure accelerated (+0.8% after +0.5%) due to medicines expenditure and health services in particular.

          Investment kept declining

          After four consecutive quarters of decline, global GFCF shrank again in Q3 2014 (–0.6% after –0.8%). Investment in construction kept falling, but the decline lessened (–1.4% after –1.7%). Expenditure on manufactured goods went down again (–0.2% after –0.5%): the decrease in transport equipment (–1.3% after –0.4%) is partly compensated by the increase in equipment goods (+0.6% after –0.9%). Investment in tradable services increased slowly (+0.2%, as in the previous quarter).

          The decline in investment is lower in non-financial corporations (–0.1% after –0.5%) than in general government (–1.2% after –0.7%) and households (–1.7% after –1.9%).

          Exports and imports sped up

          In Q3 2014, exportations slightly bounced back (+0.5% after –0.1%). Exportations in manufactured goods levelled off (0.0% after –0.6%): while exportations of transport equipment shrank, those of pharmacy and coke and refined petroleum sharply rose.

          Importations increased at a steady pace (+1.1% after +0.3%), espacially for transport equipment.

          Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP: –0.2 points in the 3rd quarter (after –0.1 points).

          Changes in inventories contributed positively to the activity

          Changes in inventories had a positive contribution to GDP growth: +0.3 points after –0.1 points in the 2nd quarter. Transport equipement contributed for +0.5 points to GDP (after a neutral contribution), thus it overcompensated the contribution of the trade balance of these goods.

          Revisions

          In Q2 the growth rate of GDP is slightly downscaled (from 0.0% to –0.1%) compared to previous release, due to revision in seasonal adjustment (in household consumption of energy, notably). The growth overhang for 2014 has been revised by +0.1 points and it now reaches +0.4%.

          Documentation

          Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)

          Pour en savoir plus

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