23 January 2014
2014- n° 20In January 2014, the business climate remains stable in services Monthly survey of services - January 2014
According to business managers, the economic situation in services remains stable in January 2014. The business climate composite indicator remains unchanged at 91. The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable economic outlook dynamic. Business managers report that their activity has declined over the last few months, but their business expectations for the coming months are a little less pessimistic than in December. The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector remains below its long-term average.
All services sector
According to business managers, the economic situation in services remains stable in January 2014. The business climate composite indicator remains unchanged at 91. The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable economic outlook dynamic. Business managers report that their activity has declined over the last few months, but their business expectations for the coming months are a little less pessimistic than in December. The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector remains below its long-term average.
Business leaders believe that their operating balance result is still degraded over the recent period, and their expectations for the coming months remain dull.
Expectations of employment are unchanged
In services sector except temporary employment agencies, the balances of opinion on past and expected employment are almost unchanged compared to December.
graphiqueGraph1 – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favorable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavorable).
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Oct. 13 | Nov. 13 | Dec. 13 | Jan. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 95 | 91 | 91 |
| General outlook | –7 | –14 | –15 | –16 | –16 |
| Past activity | 2 | –7 | –2 | –3 | –7 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –7 | –2 | –10 | –6 |
| Expected demand | 0 | –2 | –5 | –8 | –8 |
| Business situation | –2 | –11 | –9 | –14 | –15 |
| Past selling prices | –3 | –12 | –13 | –11 | –12 |
| Expected selling prices | –2 | –10 | –7 | –10 | –10 |
| Past employment | 3 | –4 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | –7 | –5 | –2 | –1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 0 | –2 | –5 | –5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | –6 | –5 | –8 | –8 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | –3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 0 | –1 | –1 | 1 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | –1 | –14 | –12 | ||
| Expected result | –1 | –9 | –14 | ||
| Cash position | –11 | –15 | –17 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 12 | 14 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 22 | 16 | 19 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 31 | 38 | 37 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 17 | 18 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: Insee
Road transport
In road freight and mail activities, business managers’ judgment on past activity is stable. However, their business expectations for the coming months are deteriorating.
Accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, business managers consider that activity is deteriorated and do not expect an improvement for the coming months.
Information and communication
In information and communication, business managers indicate that their activity has slowed down in recent months, but their expectations of activity and demand for the next months are improving.
Real estate activities
In real estate activities, business managers consider that activity is dull in the recent months. The balances of opinion on past and expected activity remain below their long term averages.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, business managers indicate that their activity remains sluggish. Their expectations of activity and demand for the coming months remain pessimistic.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, business managers indicate that activity has improved in recent months. They revise upwards their expectations of business for the coming months.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Expected activity
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | Oct. 13 | Nov. 13 | Dec. 13 | Jan. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –8 | –6 | –1 | –1 |
| Expected activity | –9 | –4 | 1 | –7 | –17 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –7 | –8 | –9 | –19 |
| Past employment | –8 | –6 | –7 | 0 | –1 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –6 | –7 | –13 | –13 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | –19 | –12 | –17 | –18 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –8 | –13 | –15 | –14 |
| Expected demand | –9 | –8 | –15 | –14 | –18 |
| Past employment | –4 | –14 | –13 | –8 | –6 |
| Expected employment | –5 | –11 | –10 | –12 | –14 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 10 | –10 | –1 | –11 | –23 |
| Expected activity | 12 | –21 | –2 | –24 | –7 |
| Expected demand | 12 | 5 | 5 | –5 | 0 |
| Past employment | 7 | –9 | –4 | –4 | –3 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 1 | 2 | –3 | –5 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 0 | –3 | –3 | –2 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 2 | –4 | –6 | –1 |
| Past employment | 3 | –5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –2 | 2 | –1 | –4 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | –3 | –6 | –7 | –8 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –11 | –9 | –9 | –11 |
| Expected demand | –5 | –10 | –12 | –12 | –10 |
| Past employment | 1 | –6 | 1 | 0 | –1 |
| Expected employment | 0 | –5 | –4 | –8 | –4 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 6 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 5 | 0 | –1 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 0 | –5 | –7 | –4 |
| Past employment | 8 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 12 |
| Expected employment | 6 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
