24 April 2014
2014- n° 95In April 2014, the business climate declines in services Monthly survey of services - April 2014
According to business managers, the economic situation in services declines in April 2014. The business climate composite indicator drops by three points and is at 90. The turning point indicator indicates a favorable dynamic. Business managers report that their activity has improved over the last few months, but their business expectations for the coming months are more pessimistic than in March. The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector remains steady, below its long-term average.
All services sector
According to business managers, the economic situation in services declines in April 2014. The business climate composite indicator drops by three points and is at 90. The turning point indicator indicates a favorable dynamic. Business managers report that their activity has improved over the last few months, but their business expectations for the coming months are more pessimistic than in March. The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector remains steady, below its long-term average.
Business leaders believe that their operating balance result is less degraded than in January, but their expectation for the coming months remains dull.
Employment expectations remain pessimistic
In services sector except temporary employment agencies, the balances of opinion on past and expected employment are slightly higher than in March, but remain below their long-term averages.
graphiqueGraph1 – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favorable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavorable).
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Jan. 14 | Feb. 14 | March 14 | April 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 92 | 93 | 90 |
| General outlook | –7 | –16 | –15 | –15 | –16 |
| Past activity | 2 | –6 | –7 | –4 | 0 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –5 | –7 | –7 | –13 |
| Expected demand | 0 | –8 | –9 | –6 | –11 |
| Business situation | –2 | –15 | –13 | –10 | –8 |
| Past selling prices | –3 | –11 | –10 | –13 | –11 |
| Expected selling prices | –2 | –9 | –11 | –12 | –10 |
| Past employment | 3 | 2 | –2 | –5 | 1 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 1 | –1 | –4 | –2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –4 | –4 | –2 | –3 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | –7 | –8 | –5 | –3 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | 1 | –2 | 1 | –3 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 2 | –5 | –6 | –3 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | –1 | –12 | –7 | ||
| Expected result | –2 | –12 | –11 | ||
| Cash position | –11 | –17 | –13 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 14 | 10 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 22 | 19 | 20 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 31 | 37 | 39 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 18 | 22 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: Insee
Road transport
In road freight and mail activities, business managers’ judgment on past activity declines sharply. The balances of opinion on expected activity and expected demand are almost unchanged and remain close to their long term averages.
Accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, business managers consider that activity has declined over the last few months and do not expect any improvement for the coming months.
Information and communication
In information and communication, the balance of opinion on past activity has sharply recovered in the recent months, while business managers’ expectations of activity and demand are pessimistic.
Real estate activities
In real estate activities, business managers report that activity has accelerated in the recent months. Despite a deterioration in expected demand, the balance of opinion on expected activity is almost stable and remains at its long-term average.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, business managers indicate that their activity is unchanged over the last few months. Their expectations of activity and demand for the coming months remain pessimistic.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, business managers indicate that activity has improved in recent months. However, they revise downwards their expectations of activity for the coming months.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Past activity
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | Jan. 14 | Feb. 14 | March 14 | April 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –1 | 3 | 3 | –9 |
| Expected activity | –9 | –15 | –18 | –10 | –8 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –18 | –18 | –12 | –14 |
| Past employment | –8 | –1 | –6 | –8 | –9 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –10 | –16 | –11 | –8 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | –19 | –14 | –5 | –10 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –15 | –21 | –12 | –11 |
| Expected demand | –9 | –19 | –25 | –29 | –33 |
| Past employment | –4 | –5 | –6 | –4 | –18 |
| Expected employment | –5 | –13 | –12 | –6 | 7 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 10 | –22 | –24 | –19 | –5 |
| Expected activity | 11 | –7 | –17 | –19 | –24 |
| Expected demand | 12 | 0 | –4 | 7 | –7 |
| Past employment | 7 | –3 | –1 | –10 | –3 |
| Expected employment | 11 | –4 | –6 | –1 | 4 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 1 | –2 | –3 | –2 | –5 |
| Past employment | 3 | 5 | 7 | –1 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –5 | –1 | –5 | –5 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | –8 | –7 | –1 | –1 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –10 | –3 | –10 | –14 |
| Expected demand | –5 | –10 | –11 | –15 | –16 |
| Past employment | 1 | –2 | –5 | –3 | –2 |
| Expected employment | 0 | –3 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 6 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | 3 | 10 | –6 |
| Expected demand | 3 | –3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Past employment | 8 | 9 | 1 | –7 | 13 |
| Expected employment | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | –8 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
