In September 2013, the improvement of business climate in manufacturing industry is pausingMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2013

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2013, the improvement of the business climate in industry is pausing. The composite indicator decreases by one point, compared with the previous month.

Informations rapides
No 214
Paru le : 25/09/2013
Prochaine parution le : 26/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2013, the improvement of the business climate in industry is pausing. The composite indicator decreases by one point, compared with the previous month.

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

Compared with the previous month, the turning-point indicator is stable and confirms the favorable cyclical economic outlook dynamic that has begun for two months.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production goes down, compared with the previous month, and stands below its long-term average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on personal production expectation increases strongly and reaches a level markedly above its long-term average.

While export order books are considered as stable, global order books deteriorate. Global and order books are still described as markedly below the average.

After the sharp improvement on the last months, the balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, has gone up strongly again. The level reaches now its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products are stable and their level is considered in accordance with the normal level.

tableau1 – Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) June 13 July 13 Aug. 13 Sept. 13
Composite indicator (2) 100 93 95 98 97
Past activity 4 –5 1 4 –10
Finished-goods inventory 13 9 10 12 12
Global order books –18 –29 –26 –22 –27
Export order books –13 –28 –29 –22 –22
Personal production expectations 5 0 2 3 13
General production expectations –9 –41 –30 –18 –10
  • (1) Average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity in production deteriorates and stands bellow its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are nearly stable and are considered near to their normal level. Export and global order books improve slightly but are still described as low supplied. The balance on expected activity is nearly stable, at its long-term level.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICAL EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity deteriorated sharply and the corresponding balance is very below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are still considered higher than their normal level. Global and export order books deteriorate and are described as very low. Manufacturers are pessimistic about their production expectations.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity falls strongly, compared with August, and stands very below its average level. On the contrary, the industrialists of this sector remain optimistic about their expected production: the corresponding balance is still markedly above its long-term level. While global order books deteriorate and are described as very low, export order books are stable and considered as normal. As for the finished-goods inventory level, it decreases and is considered less than its normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In September, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the past activity is considered as weak. Stocks of finished products are stable and are considered below their normal level. As for the demand, while global order books are deteriorating, foreign order books are described as clearly improving. In order from the personal production expectations, the activity should become more dynamic again over the next months.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

According to the business managers, the past activity is considered deteriorated in the manufacture of chemicals, the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in the one of rubber and plastic products, and improved in the one of basic metals. The production expectations in the next months improve sharply in all sectors, except for the manufacture of rubber and plastic products in which the corresponding balance is nearly stable at its long-term average. In all sectors, export order books are stable at a low level, except for the manufacture of rubber and plastic products in which they improve slightly. As for the global order books, they are stable in the manufacture of chemicals and deteriorate in the three other sectors. While the finished-goods inventory are near their normal level in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products, they are still considered as inferior than their normal level in the other sectors.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** July 13 Aug. 13 Sept. 13
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 –6 –1 –8
Finished-goods inventory 12 16 20 18
Global order books –18 –24 –26 –25
Export order books –13 –20 –24 –20
Personal production expectations 7 7 9 7
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 5 –2 4 –21
Finished-goods inventory 17 30 32 30
Global order books –23 –41 –42 –45
Export order books –20 –47 –40 –44
Personal production expectations 3 –12 –8 –10
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 7 7 19 –20
Finished-goods inventory 14 –4 10 6
Global order books –14 –18 –12 –24
Export order books –12 –28 –13 –10
Personal production expectations 7 8 19 31
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 2 –28 –1 –68
Finished-goods inventory 11 –20 4 –2
Global order books –20 –46 –43 –47
Export order books –14 –46 –12 –15
Personal production expectations 2 17 16 17
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 38 29 5
Finished-goods inventory 20 12 16 14
Global order books –6 10 18 –2
Export order books –9 –12 –13 –4
Personal production expectations 14 9 8 46
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 0 7 –3
Finished-goods inventory 11 5 4 4
Global order books –19 –33 –25 –30
Export order books –13 –22 –21 –20
Personal production expectations 4 –7 –4 6
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 8 6 –19
Finished-goods inventory 7 –1 0 4
Global order books –13 –29 –17 –17
Export order books –8 –17 –21 –20
Personal production expectations 14 –9 2 21
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 17 3 48 –4
Finished-goods inventory 10 14 7 2
Global order books 4 –4 –3 –10
Export order books 10 –6 –6 –6
Personal production expectations 15 4 –42 9
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –2 –13 –2 –19
Finished-goods inventory 11 10 6 10
Global order books –24 –54 –42 –50
Export order books –18 –47 –44 –39
Personal production expectations –1 –25 –4 –3
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 12 1 7
Finished-goods inventory 7 1 3 0
Global order books –19 –33 –29 –36
Export order books –16 –29 –18 –20
Personal production expectations 1 –6 –2 10
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee