Demand adressed to business leaders improves again in the third quarter 2013Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2013

In the third quarter, the improvement of global and foreign demand has gone on : the corresponding balances reach now their long-term average. The anticipations of industrialists about the expected change in global and foreign demand in the fourth quarter 2013 get better clearly.

Informations rapides
No 241
Paru le : 23/10/2013
Prochaine parution le : 24/01/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

Demand

Improvement of global and foreign demand

In the third quarter, the improvement of global and foreign demand has gone on : the corresponding balances reach now their long-term average. The anticipations of industrialists about the expected change in global and foreign demand in the fourth quarter 2013 get better clearly.

Graphang1 – Past change in demand

Production factors

The tensions on the means of production go up slightly

Over the third quarter 2013, the tensions of the means of production go up slightly but they remain weak. So the productive capacity utilisation rate increases by one point compared with the previous quarter but remains below its average level, indicating that the means of production are underused in the manufacturing industry. The balance on production bottlenecks increase slightly and is now above its long-term average.

Graphang2 – Change in the productive capacity utilisation rate

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion : demand and production factors

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion : demand and production factors
Manufacturing industry Aver.* Jan. 13 Avril 13 Juil. 13 Oct. 13
Global demand
Past change 0 –24 –23 –11 1
Future change 1 –9 –4 –6 1
Foreign demand
Past change 3 –30 –14 –5 2
Future change 4 –14 2 –2 10
Production factors
Production bottlenecks (in %) 22 27 25 23 25
Assessment of productive capacity 14 23 23 14 13
Productive capacity utilisation rate (in %) 85 81 80 80 81
Difficulties of supply and demand
Difficulties of supply and demand 8 8 12 12 11
Difficulties of supply 20 19 18 14 14
Difficulties of demand 44 57 47 50 47
  • * : Long-term average.
  • Source : Quaterly business survey - Insee

Workforce

Improvement of balances of the worforce size

According to the business managers, the rate of job shedding in the industry stabilizes over the last months. Over the next months, industrialists are more optimistic about the change in workforce size.

The percentage of companies experiencing hiring difficulties in the manufacturing industry is slightly stable and reaches its long-term average.

Graphang3 – Workforce size in the manufacturing industry

Wages and working time

According to the business managers in the manufacturing industry, the wages increase by 0,2 % over the third quarter 2013.

The industrialists are less numerous in October to indicate a fall in the weekly working time both in the last and in the next months.

Cash-flow and selling prices

In the third quarter 2013, the proportion of industrialists experiencing cash-flow problems is slightly steady compared with the previous quarter and reaches its average level.

According to the business managers, the selling prices in the manufacturing industry go up slightly in the third quarter 2013. They forecast a fall in selling prices for the next quarter.

Competitive position

According to the industrialists, in the third quarter 2013, their competitive position remains deteriorated on domestic market and foreign markets inside EU, even if it recovers slightly. It gets worst once again on foreign market outside EU.

The general exportation expectations rebund markedly. For the first time since the second quarter 2011, the corresponding balance is now above its long-term average.

Graphang4 – Competitive position

tableau2 – Industrialists'opinion : employment, competitive position, cash-flow, wages and selling prices

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists'opinion : employment, competitive position, cash-flow, wages and selling prices
Manufacturing industry Aver.* Jan. 13 Avril 13 Juil. 13 Oct. 13
Workforce size
Past change –11 –11 –12 –12 –11
Expected change –13 –13 –14 –13 –7
Difficulties hiring 28 24 27 27 28
Working time
Past change –3 –6 –5 –1 1
Expected change –5 –9 –7 –2 –1
Cash-flow and wages
Cash-flow problems 15 16 14 15 14
Past wages 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,2
Selling prices
Past change 0,2 –0,1 0,4 –0,6 0,2
Expected change 0,2 0,3 0,0 0,0 –0,2
Competitive position
On domestic market 1 –5 –3 –4 –2
On foreign markets inside EU 0 –16 –7 –9 –3
On foreign markets outside EU –1 –4 –2 0 –3
General exportation expectations –10 –34 –43 –31 –4
  • * : Long-term average.
  • Source : Quaterly business survey - Insee