Économie et Statistique n° 408-409 - 2007 Employment and Vocational Schemes: an Advantage in the Medium Term for the Participants? - Work Absenteeism: an Analysis Using French Data from the European Community Household Panel - Population Projections
Regional Population Projections 2005-2030 Concentration in the South and West and the Varying Intensity of Ageing: the Double Impact of Migratory Exchanges
Assuming that recent demographic trends continue (general scenario), between now and 2030 the population of mainland France will increase by more than 10% and will stay concentrated in the south and west of the country, to the detriment of central and north-eastern regions, where the population will fall. Migration, which intensifies or tempers demographic changes in each region, also has an impact on the ageing of the population, slowing down or speeding up demographic shifts depending on the migrants' age profile. In the Île-de-France region (around Paris), the ageing of the population will be considerably slowed by a strong migratory surplus of under 30s and a marked deficit of retirement-age people; while in Lower Normandy and Burgundy, for example, where the opposite is occurring, migratory flows will intensify the ageing process. Taking into account recent demographic changes, these new projections generally forecast an increase in regional populations compared with previous projections. This is particularly clear in the Limousin, Midi-Pyrénées and Poitou-Charentes, which have recorded the most dramatic demographic shifts in recent years, with a clear increase in fertility combined with their becoming once again highly-attractive migration destinations. Conversely, the Centre, Picardy and Upper Normandy are the only regions for which the new projections are lower than the previous ones.