In December 2015, the business climate in manufacturing has slightly increasedMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - December 2015

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2015, the business climate in industry has slightly increased. The composite indicator has gained one point and has come back to its October level (103), above it long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 306
Paru le : 17/12/2015
Prochaine parution le : 23/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2015, the business climate in industry has slightly increased. The composite indicator has gained one point and has come back to its October level (103), above it long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between +0.3 and –0.3 : short-term economic uncertainty.

In December 2015, the balance of opinion on past activity has plunged (–9 points) and has become slightly inferior to its long-term average. For the next months, industrialists are more optimistic on their personal production expectations than on general production expectations. The balance on personal production expectations has bounced back (+7 points) and has reached a level above the normal.

Conversely, the balance on general production expectations of the sector has decreased (–9 points). However, it is still significantly above its long-term average.

In December, global and export order books have improved; the corresponding balances of opinion are above their long-term mean.

Finally, as many industrialists as in November judge that stocks of finished products are above normal, the corresponding balance is once again slightly inferior to its long-term average.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15
Composite indicator 100 104 103 102 103
Past activity 4 11 8 11 2
Finished-goods inventory 13 15 10 12 12
Global order books –18 –15 –15 –17 –12
Export order books –14 –10 –13 –14 –10
Personal production expectations 5 14 12 3 10
General production expectations –9 5 2 9 0
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: Monthly business survey – INSEE

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has fallen again and has reached a level close to its long-period average. That on production prospects has increased a little and has become higher than its mean level. While global order books are stable, export order books have slightly worsened; the corresponding balances stays above the normal. Stocks of finished products, already above the normal in November, are judged larger.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balance on past activity has kept on increasing but remains lower than its long-term average. That on production expectations has deteriorated and has become slightly below normal. The balance on stocks of finished is stable and close to its mean level. Global and export order books are also stable and close to their normal level.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity is virtually stable, far above its long-term average. That on production prospects has plummeted and has become inferior to its mean level. However, global and export order books have improved, remaining above their mean. Stocks of finished goods are considered lower, the corresponding balance is inferior to its long-term average for the fourth month in a row.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity, increasing slightly, is above its long-term average. The production prospects balance has faltered but is still well above normal. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products is virtually stable above its long-term level. Order books have deteriorated but remain above their long-term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the balance of opinion on past activity is virtually stable and that on production prospects has improved a little; both are at a level slightly above their long-term mean. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has declined in pharmaceuticals and in basic metals while it has increased in chemicals and in plastic products. The balance on expected activity has deteriorated in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and in that of plastic products, while it has improved in that of chemicals and in that of basic metals. Global and export order books are virtually stable in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and has climbed in that of chemicals and in that of basic metals; in plastic products, while global order books are stable at a low level, export order books have improved and have risen above their long-term average. Finally, stocks of finished goods are considered heavier in the manufacture of plastic products and in that of basic metals and are stable in that of chemicals and in that of pharmaceuticals.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 14 8 5
Finished-goods inventory 12 14 15 18
Global order books –18 –13 –11 –10
Export order books –13 –5 –4 –7
Personal production expectations 7 13 6 9
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –8 –5 –3
Finished-goods inventory 17 16 19 19
Global order books –24 –30 –24 –26
Export order books –22 –27 –25 –25
Personal production expectations 2 6 5 –1
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 7 36 34
Finished-goods inventory 14 24 27 23
Global order books –13 17 11 13
Export order books –12 –6 –2 –1
Personal production expectations 8 40 41 15
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 4 7 42 44
Finished-goods inventory 10 3 8 –2
Global order books –20 11 –3 9
Export order books –13 –6 –9 9
Personal production expectations 3 47 43 –9
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 –7 20 23
Finished-goods inventory 21 46 47 48
Global order books –5 23 26 17
Export order books –10 –6 3 –9
Personal production expectations 15 34 45 31
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 5 5 6
Finished-goods inventory 10 6 2 8
Global order books –20 –27 –27 –22
Export order books –13 –12 –18 –9
Personal production expectations 4 5 2 5
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 22 7 18
Finished-goods inventory 6 6 –3 –5
Global order books –13 –19 –23 –12
Export order books –8 –14 –20 –7
Personal production expectations 13 15 –2 11
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 17 67 36 26
Finished-goods inventory 9 6 5 6
Global order books 3 –2 –3 –4
Export order books 10 –1 1 2
Personal production expectations 15 24 –18 –39
Man. of rubber and plastic products [CG]
Past activity –3 –15 –3 6
Finished-goods inventory 11 9 7 15
Global order books –26 –49 –41 –42
Export order books –18 –20 –32 –15
Personal production expectations –1 5 10 –6
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity 0 –2 7 –2
Finished-goods inventory 7 5 3 15
Global order books –20 –25 –34 –22
Export order books –15 –14 –24 –16
Personal production expectations 1 –2 –4 12
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the NAF rév.2.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey