17 December 2015
2015- n° 307In December 2015, the economic climate has improved slightly in the building construction
industry Monthly survey of building - December 2015
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2015, the business climate is virtually stable in the building construction industry. The composite indicator which measures it has increased by one point but remains significantly below (92) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has returned into in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2015, the business climate is virtually stable in the building construction industry. The composite indicator which measures it has increased by one point but remains significantly below (92) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has returned into in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.
graphiqueClimate – Business climate composite indicator
graphiqueTurningPoint – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), it indicates a favourable climate (respectively unfavourable). Between +0.3 and –0.3 : short-term economic uncertainty.
tableauTableau1 – Building industry economic outlook
| Mean* | Sept. 15 | Oct. 15 | Nov. 15 | Dec. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 90 | 91 | 92 |
| Past activity | –4 | –24 | –16 | –11 | –8 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –13 | –19 | –19 | –6 |
| Gen. business outlook | –19 | –24 | |||
| Past employment | –5 | –26 | –30 | –30 | –28 |
| Expected employment | –4 | –21 | –24 | –24 | –22 |
| Opinion on order books | –23 | –52 | –53 | –49 | –52 |
| Order books (in month) | 5,4 | 6,6 | 6,5 | 6,4 | 6,4 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate | 88,6 | 84,4 | 84,6 | 84,9 | 84,6 |
| Obstacles to production increase (in %) | 32 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| - Because of workforce shortage (in %) | 14,4 | 2,6 | 2,7 | 2,8 | 3,5 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 58 | 41 | |||
| Expected prices | –15 | –29 | –32 | –30 | –30 |
| Cash-flow position | –10 | –12 | |||
| Repayment period | 29 | 39 |
- * Mean since September 1993.
Business managers are less pessimistic about their expected activity
In December 2015, fewer business managers than in the previous month have declared a fall in their activity in the recent period and for the next three months. The balance of opinion on expected activity has improved significantly and has come back to its long-term average for the first time since October 2011.
graphiqueActivity – Activity tendency in building construction
A little less pessimism about employment
In December 2015, slightly fewer business managers than in November have indicated a fall in their staff size in the recent period and for the next few months. The corresponding balances remain substantially below their long-term average.
graphiqueWorkforce – Workforce size tendency in building construction
Order books are considered as very low
Order books are considered much lower than normal. The corresponding balance has been very low for more than a year. With their staff size, business managers consider that their order books provide 6.4 months of work, a level stable and above its long term average (5.4 months).
graphiqueOrderBooks – Order books
Production capacity underused
Since 2008, the production capacity utilisation rate has been below its long-term average. In December 2015, it is virtually stable (84.6 % after 84.9 %). Almost one business manager out of five has reported difficulties in increasing output, against one out of three in average since 1993.
graphiquePcur – Production capacity utilisation rate
Prices have been reported down, as frequently as in November
In December 2015, almost as many business managers as in November have indicated price falls. The corresponding balance remains substantially below its long-term average.
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,170 Ko)
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