22 November 2018

2018- n° 302

In November 2018, the business climate has slightly recovered in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2018, the business climate in industry has slightly improved compared to the previous month. After two consecutive months of decline, the composite indicator has recovered by one point. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator stands in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balance of industrialists' opinion on their past activity is back on track, after having significantly dropped in October. That on their personal production expectations has continued to grow. It had sharply fallen in September. Both balances remain above their long-term average.

Yet, manufacturers are less optimistic about the general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has decreased by three points, while remaining well above its average. Industrialists report again less filled export orders books. However, the balance of opinion on overall order books is stable, after having dropped significantly in October. Both remain above their long-term average.

Virtually as many industrialists as in October consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance remains below its long-term mean.

As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has slightly decreased again, that on expected workforce size is stable. Both balances remain well above their long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator is back on track in November. At 107, it has increased by five points and stands well above its long-term average (100). This improvement mainly comes from the increase in the balances on past and future activity.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has fallen sharply (-5 points). At 102, it is getting closer to its long-term average (100). This decrease mainly comes from the fall in the balances on overall and export order books.

The business climate has sharply deteriorated in the computer, electronic and optical product industry and in the electrical equipment industry, where it has fallen just below its long-term average. It is stable in machinery and equipment.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has increased by one point after two consecutive months of decrease. At 104, it stands above its long-term average (100). This slight improvement mainly comes from the increase in the balance on overall order books, in particular in the motor industry.

Indeed, the business climate indicator has slightly recovered in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers: it has increased by two points and has returned to its long-term average. It is stable in the manufacture of other transport equipment.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable at 102, after falling three months in a row. The increase in the balance on past activity is offset by the decrease in that on export order books.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has picked up in rubber and plastic products, and, to a lesser extent in wood-paper and in basic metals. However, it has fallen in clothing-textiles, in chemicals and in the “other manufacturing industries”.