Informations Rapides · 30 October 2026 · n° 263

In Q3 2026, GDP slightly declined (-0.1% after 0.0%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2026

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume* slightly declined in the third quarter of 2026 (-0.1% after stability in Q2 2026).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) continued to rise: household consumption accelerated (+0.4% after +0.2%), and public administration consumption continued to rise (+0.3% after +0.4%). Conversely, gross fixed capital formation declined again (-0.6% after -0.5%). Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed +0.1 points to GDP growth, as in the previous quarter.

The contribution of foreign trade to growth was negative this quarter (-0.6 points after +0.6 points): exports fell back (-1.7% after +2.8%), while imports remained virtually stable (+0.1% after +0.9%).

Conversely, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4 points after -0.7 points in Q2 2026).

Total production (goods and services) fell back slightly in the third quarter of 2026: it decreased by 0.1%, after having risen slightly in the previous quarter.

Production in the manufacturing sector declined sharply (-1.4% after stability). It shrank significantly in transport equipment (-3.5% after +0.2%): car production fell for the fourth consecutive quarter (-1.5% after -3.4%), while production of other transport equipment, particularly in aeronautics, plummeted (-4.5% after +2.1%). Agri-food production fell again (-1.5% after -0.6%), penalised by poor summer harvests. Production fell back sharply in other manufactured goods (-1.0% after +0.2%), particularly in the chemical sector and in machinery and equipment. Refined petroleum production declined again (-0.7% after -1.5%), as did production in the energy, water and waste sector (-0.7% after -0.3%): the heatwaves and drought in September led to a reduction in the availability of certain power stations.

Production continued to decline in construction (-0.4% after -0.7%).

By contrast, production of market services (excluding construction) continued to rise in Q3 2026 (+0.3% after +0.2%), driven upwards by information and communication services (+1.0% after +0.2%), household services (+0.6 % after +1.0 %) and transport services (+0.5% after -0.1%). Conversely, production of legal, accountancy and administrative services slowed down (+0.1% after +0.3%), penalised by the fall in the number of property transactions, while production of commercial services declined slightly.

Household consumption raised at a faster rate in the third quarter of 2026 (+0.4% after +0.2% in the previous quarter). Goods purchases accelerated (+0.4% after +0.2%). In detail, consumption of transport equipment rose again (+3.1% after +2.5%), driven in particular by purchases of electric vehicles. Energy consumption rebounded (+1.2% after -2.0%), due to a further rise in spending on electricity. Food consumption remained stable. Conversely, consumption of capital goods fell sharply (-2.0% after +2.6%).

Household consumption of services rose again in Q3 2026 (+0.4% after +0.2%). It was once again driven by household services (+0.9% after +1.8%), particularly recreational services, and by an acceleration in accommodation and food services (+0.7% after +0.1%).

Total GFCF declined again in the third quarter of 2026 (-0.6% after -0.5%), due to a further decrease in GFCF in construction (-0.5% after -0.8%), in both civil engineering and building construction.

Investment in manufactured goods fell back sharply (-1.9% after being stable in the second quarter), driven by a decline in GFCF in transport equipment (-7.0% after +2.6%) explained by a reversal following the delivery of a cruising sailboat in the previous quarter and by a fall in investment by corporate fleets. Conversely, investment in capital goods rebounded (+0.8% after -0.4%), driven by investment in IT equipment.

Investment in market services (excluding construction) rebounded (+0.2% after -0.4%), supported by investment in information and communication (+2.1% after +0.5%). Conversely, due to a further decline in property transactions in the resale market, investment in business services fell again (-1.6% after -1.2%), particularly in legal services, as did investment in real estate services (-0.7% after -2.2%).

Foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 (-0.6 points, after +0.6 points in the previous quarter).

Exports fell back sharply in Q3 2026 (-1.7% after +2.8%). They were driven down by exports of transport equipment (-9.1% after +20.8%), particularly in aeronautics. Exports of agricultural products fell sharply (-7.0% after +0.5%) and exports of agri-food products declined again (-1.1 % after -1.2 %). Exports of capital goods fell back for the first time in seven quarters (-1.1% after +4.1%). Finally, exports of services slowed (+0.5% after +1.0%), held back by exports of business services.

Imports remained virtually stable in Q3 2026 (+0.1% after +0.9%). Imports of manufactured goods declined slightly following a strong second quarter (-0.2% after +1.9%), dragged down by a further fall in imports of refined petroleum products (-6.4% after -4.9%) and agri-food products (-1.6% after -0.4%). Conversely, imports of capital goods remained dynamic (+1.4% after +3.1%) and imports of transport equipment rose slightly (+0.3% after +8.9%): the fall in aerospace purchases was offset by the rise in purchases of motor vehicles and marine products. Imports of energy, water and waste rebounded (+4.0% after -7.4%).

Finally, on the services side, imports remained stable (after +0.2%).

Inventory changes contributed positively to GDP growth in Q3 2026 (+0.4 points after -0.7 points), driven mainly by aerospace products, following a sharp reduction in inventories in the previous quarter.

The estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 was not revised (after rounding). However, the contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) has been revised downwards slightly (to +0.1 points instead of +0.2 points).

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the coefficients for seasonal adjustment (SA) and working-day adjustment (WDA) have been updated.