Informations Rapides · 30 July 2026 · n° 184

In Q2 2026, GDP rebounded (+0.2% after -0.1%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2026

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume* rebounded in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.2% after -0.1% in Q1 2026).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) picked up: household consumption rose slightly (+0.2% after -0.3%), as did public administration consumption (+0.4% after +0.3%). Conversely, gross fixed capital formation declined again (-0.3% after -0.8%). Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed +0.1 points to GDP growth, after -0.2 points in Q1 2026.

The contribution of foreign trade to growth was positive this quarter (+0.6 points after -0.8 points): exports rebounded sharply (+2.6% after -3.1%), outpacing imports (+0.8% after -0.7%). Conversely, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth was negative this quarter (-0.6 points after +0.9 points in Q1 2026).

Total production (goods and services) recovered in the second quarter 2026, rising by 0.3% after remaining stable in the previous quarter.

Production in the manufacturing industry slowed sharply this quarter (+0.1% after +0.5%). It continued to grow in transport equipment (+0.4% after +1.3%): production of other transport equipment, particularly in aeronautics, remained strong (+2.6% after +4.0%), while car production declined for the fourth consecutive quarter (-3.6% after -3.5%). Refined petroleum production fell back (-1.8% after +0.9%), due to a refinery shutdown for maintenance. Production in energy, water, and waste management was virtually stable this quarter (-0.1% after -1.8%), in line with demand. Finally, agricultural production declined for the second consecutive quarter (-0.9% after -1.0%).

Production of market services (excluding construction) accelerated in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.6% after +0.1%), driven by transport services (+1.9% after +0.3%), information and communication services (+0.5% after +1.0%), business services (+0.7% after +0.4%), and household services (+1.0% after +0.4%), while the accommodation and food services and the trade services are sluggish.

Finally, production continued to decline in construction (-0.5% after -1.7%), weighed down by civil engineering, while building construction stabilised.

Household consumption rebounded slightly in the second quarter 2026 (+0.2% after -0.3%). Household consumption expenditure on goods was virtually stable this quarter (-0.1% after -0.7%). Food consumption (including tobacco) declined again slightly (-0.3% after -0.6%), both in agricultural and agri-food products. Consumption of refined petroleum products continued to fall sharply (-3.5% after -2.6%), as did consumption in energy, water, and waste services (-0.5% after -2.4%). The latter was dragged down by an unusually warm April, which more than offset the rebound in May and the increase in electricity consumption in June caused by the heatwave. Consumption of transport equipment accelerated (+2.4% after +0.9%), particularly for car purchases.

Household consumption of services increased slightly again this quarter (+0.2% after +0.1%). It was driven by the acceleration in consumption of household services (+1.7% after +0.5%) and a slight rebound in accommodation and food services (+0.2% after -0.7%). However, it was held back by transport services (-0.3% after -0.8%), particularly air transport, and by information and communication services (-0.6% after 0.0%).

Total GFCF fell again in the second quarter of 2026 (-0.3% after -0.8%), driven by a further drop in construction GFCF (-0.5% after -2.1%) in a context of rising costs. This decline was weighed down by civil engineering, while building construction stabilised after a sharp fall in the first quarter of 2026.

Investment in manufactured products edged down this quarter (-0.2% after 0.0%), due to a decline in investment in capital goods (-1.1% after +1.3%) and other manufactured goods (-2.0% after -0.4%). Conversely, investment in transport equipment rebounded strongly (+2.4% after -0.9%), boosted by the delivery of a cruising sailboat.

Finally, investment in market services excluding construction remained stable (0.0% after +0.4%). On the one hand, business services investment declined again (-0.2% after -1.1%), along with real estate services (-4.0% after -2.5%), with transactions in resale market falling once more. On the other hand, investment in information and communication services slowed (+0.5% after +2.2%), particularly in IT services.

Foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.6 points, after -0.8 points in the previous quarter).

Exports rebounded sharply in the second quarter of 2026 (+2.6% after -3.1%). On the goods side, exports of transport equipment surged (+20.1% after -18.8%). This increase was primarily driven by other transport equipment (+33.6% after -28.3%), particularly aeronautics, following a weak first quarter. Exports of capital goods grew also strongly (+3.5% after +1.2%). Exports of agri-food products fell back (-1.3% after +1.8%), while agricultural product exports bounced back slightly this quarter (+1.1% after -1.7%). Finally, service exports accelerated (+1.5% after +0.5%), driven by exports in business services.

Imports rebounded in the second quarter of 2026 (+0.8% after -0.7%). Imports of manufactured goods picked up (+0.7% after -1.3%), boosted by imports of aeronautics and naval equipment (+15.5% after -10.5%) and capital goods (+2.7% after +1.5%).

Imports of energy, water, and waste services declined again (-0.4% after -0.9%).

Finally, on the services side, imports rebounded (+1.2% after -0.1%), particularly in business services (+1.8% after -1.4%), along with exports.

Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth in Q2 2026 (-0.6 points after +0.9 points), driven mainly by aerospace products, following a significant build-up of stock in the previous quarter.

The estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 was not revised (after rounding). However, the contribution of foreign trade was revised upwards (to -0.8 points instead of -0.9 points), while in parallel the contribution of changes in inventories was revised downward (+0.9 points instead of +1.0 point).

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the coefficients for seasonal adjustment (SA) and working-day adjustment (WDA) have been updated.