Informations Rapides · 30 April 2026 · n° 106

GDP stalled in Q1 2026 (0.0% after +0.2%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2026

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* stalled in the first quarter of 2026 (0.0% after +0.2% in Q4 2025).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) was sluggish: household consumption declined slightly (-0.1% after +0.4%), and gross fixed capital formation fell back (-0.4% after +0.3%). Overall, the contribution of domestic demand (excluding inventories) to GDP growth was zero this quarter, after +0.4 points in Q4 2025.

The contribution of foreign trade to growth was strongly negative this quarter (-0.7 points after +0.6 points): exports fell sharply (-3.8% after +0.8%), while imports declined again (-1.7% after -0.8%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was strongly positive this quarter: +0.8 points after -0.7 points in Q4 2025.

Total production (goods and services) was once again sluggish, rising by 0.1%, after +0.2% in Q4 2025.

Production of market services (excluding construction) slowed slightly (+0.2% after +0.3%), dragged down by transportation services (-0.6% after -0.2%). Conversely, information and communication services accelerated (+1.4% after +0.4%), and business services remained dynamic (+0.4% after +0.7%).

Production fell in construction (-1.3% after +0.3%), in both building and civil engineering, driven by a downturn in investment.

Production in the manufacturing industry rebounded sharply this quarter (+0.7% after -0.3%). It was driven by the production of other transportation equipment (+4.0% after 0.0%), particularly in the aerospace industry, both for aircraft engines and for airframes. Production also recovered in other manufactured goods (+0.3% after -0.5%) and in capital goods (+0.5% after -0.2%).

Finally, production in energy, water, and waste management went down sharply (-1.8% after +0.7%), in line with demand.

Household consumption fell back slightly in Q1 2026 (-0.1% after +0.4%). Household consumption expenditure on goods fell sharply in Q1 2026 (-0.6% after +0.4%). Food consumption (including tobacco) fell back slightly this quarter (-0.3% after +0.2%), with a further drop in consumption of meat, beverages and tobacco. Consumption of refined petroleum products dropped this quarter (-2.3% after +1.1%), largely due to the aftermath of a buoyant end of the year in 2025. Consumption of capital goods also fell back this quarter (-0.3% after +1.5%), weighed down by a drop in computer purchases. Consumption of energy, water, and waste services also declined this quarter (-2.3% after 0.0%), due to particularly mild temperatures in February. Consumption of transportation equipment slowed down slightly (+0.3% after +0.8%).

Household spending on services grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter (+0.2%). It was held back by transportation services (-0.5% after +1.2%), particularly rail transport. By contrast, it continued to be supported by spending on business services (+0.5% after +0.7%). Accommodation and food services remained stable this quarter (0.0% after +0.1%).

Total gross fixed capital formation fell back in Q1 2026 (-0.4% after +0.3%) due to a sharp drop in gross fixed capital formation in construction (-1.5% after +0.3%). Civil engineering investment dropped (-4.1% after +2.2%). Investment in buildings also declined anew (-1.0% after remaining stable), driven by a drop in maintenance and improvement, but slightly offset by a recovery in new housing construction. Investment in manufactured goods recovered (+0.5% after -0.8%), driven up by GFCF in capital goods (+2.2% after -1.0%) which more than offset the further decline in GFCF in transport equipment (-0.6% after -0.9%). Finally, investment in market services excluding construction slowed slightly (+0.6% after +1.0%): it was driven by investment in information and communication services (+2.0% after +0.5%), particularly in IT services, while investment in business services fell back (-0.6% after +1.4%).

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was strongly negative in the first quarter of 2026 (-0.7 points, following +0.6 points in the previous quarter).

Exports declined sharply in the first quarter of 2026 (-3.8% after +0.8%). On the goods side, exports of transport equipment fell sharply (-20.1% after +4.7%), particularly in the aerospace sector, following two dynamic quarters. Exports of agri-food products accelerated (+1.7% after +0.3%), and exports of agricultural products continued to decline (-2.3% after -1.7%). Finally, exports of services declined again (-0.7% after -0.3%).

Imports continued to decline (-1.7% after -0.8%). Imports of manufactured goods fell sharply (-2.1% after -1.1%), weighed down by imports of aerospace and naval products (-19.4% after -0.3%) and other manufactured goods (-1.1% after -2.8%). Imports of energy, water, and waste fell back sharply (-6.5% after +0.2%), particularly imports of crude petroleum products and natural gas.

Finally, on the services side, imports declined again (-1.1% after -0.4%).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.8 points, following -0.7 points), driven mainly by aerospace products, following significant inventory destocking in the previous two quarters.

The GDP growth estimates for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 remain unchanged (after rounding). Growth for the first quarter of 2025 is revised upward by 0.1 points to +0.2%, but the annual GDP growth rate for 2025 remains unchanged after rounding. The profit margin of non-financial corporations for the fourth quarter of 2025 has been revised downward by 0.2 points (after rounding), but remains unchanged for the year. General government deficit has been aligned with the provisional general government account published at the end of March for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the seasonal adjustment coefficients (SA) and working day adjustment coefficients (WDA) have been updated.

In the next issue, to be published on 29 May 2026, the quarterly accounts will be revised following the recalibration to the annual accounts (2023 definitive, 2024 semi-definitive and 2025 provisional), published on the same date. In addition, the models used to estimate the quarterly accounts will be reviewed, as they are every year, when the detailed results for the first quarter are published.