Informations Rapides · 30 January 2026 · n° 25

GDP slowed down in Q4 2025 (+0.2% after +0.5%); on average in 2025, it increased by 0.9% Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2025, increasing by 0.2%, after +0.5% in the third quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) slowed down slightly: gross fixed capital formation slowed down (+0.2% after +0.7%), but household consumption accelerated moderately (+0.3% after +0.1%). Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter: +0.3 points after +0.4 points in the third quarter of 2025.

Foreign trade made another positive contribution to growth in the fourth quarter (+0.9 points after +0.5 points): exports slowed down significantly (+0.9% after +3.2%), while imports fell back sharply (-1.7% after +1.5%).

Conversely, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was strongly negative this quarter: -1.0 point after -0.4 points in the third quarter of 2025.

On average over 2025 as a whole, GDP increased by 0.9 %* (after +1.1% in 2024 and +1.6% in 2023). Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) accelerated moderately (contribution of +0.7 points after +0.6 points), driven by household and public administration consumption (contribution of +0.6 points after +0.8 points), as well as a virtual stability in investment (after a contribution of -0.3 points in 2024). Conversely, after two years of positive contributions, foreign trade contributed negatively to growth in 2025 (-0.5 points after +1.3 points).

Total production (goods and services) stalled in the fourth quarter of 2025, increasing by 0.1% after +0.8% in the previous quarter.

Production of market services slowed down this quarter (+0.2% after +0.6% in the previous quarter), dragged down by transport services (-0.5% after -0,4%). Information and communication services slowed down (+0.6% after +1.4 %), as did business services (+0.6% after +0.9%).

Production in construction, meanwhile, was virtually stable (+0.1% after +0.6%).

Production in the manufacturing industry fell back slightly this quarter, after a dynamic third quarter (-0.2% after +1.3%). It was dragged down by a general decline in other manufactured goods (-0.4% after +0.8%), in capital goods (-0.4% after +0.3%) and transport equipment (-0.2% after +2.8%). It declined in particular in the automobile sector (-2.2 % after +0.2%), with several factories shut down in the autumn.

Finally, energy, water and waste production remained virtually stable after the sharp increase recorded in the previous quarter (+0.1% after +3.8%), in line with gas and electricity demand.

Overall in 2025, production increased at almost the same rate as in the previous year (+1.0% after +1.1% in 2024). Production of market services excluding construction slowed down slightly (+1.5% after +2.0%), while construction output fell less sharply than in 2024 (-0.8% after -2.0%). Goods production recovered slightly (+0.4% after +0.0%): it rebounded in manufacturing (+0.7% after -1.0%), particularly in transport equipment, while energy, water and waste production fell back (-1.8% after +4.2%).

Household consumption accelerated slightly in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+0.3% after +0.1%). Household consumption expenditure on goods accelerated in volume terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+0.4% after +0.1%). Purchases of manufactured goods rose again in the fourth quarter (+0.5% after +0.5%): consumption of transport equipment slowed down this quarter (+0.5% after +1.0%), as did consumption of capital goods (+1.0% after +1.9%), while consumption of textiles and clothing rebounded (+0.7% after -1.2%). Food consumption was stable (+0.0% after -1.0%). Consumption of refined petroleum products rebounded sharply (+1.5% after -2.2%), while household spending on energy, water and waste stalled (+0.2% after +3.8%), after a rebound in the third quarter.

Household consumption of services rose slightly again (+0.2% after +0.1%), supported by transport services (+0.8% after -0.5%), particularly rail transport. Consumption in accommodation and catering remained stable after experiencing a decline in the previous quarter (+0.0% after -0.8%). Conversely, consumption of information and communication services slowed down (+0.1% after +0.5%), penalised by purchases of books and telecommunications services, but supported by cinema tickets. Finally, consumption of household services declined (-1.0% after +0.1%).

Overall in 2025, household consumption slowed down compared to 2024 (+0.4% after +1.0%). Household consumption of services slowed down (+1.2% after +2.2%), driven by the decline in household services (-0.8% after +7.7% mainly as a backlash from the impact of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2024), as well as the slowdown in transport services (+1.6% after +3.8%) and information and communication services (+1.6% after +3.5%).

Total GFCF slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+0.2% after +0.7%). Investment in manufactured goods fell back (-0.9% after +0.3%), dragged down by gross fixed capital formation in transport equipment (-1.3% after +0.9%) and in capital goods (-0.9% after 1,5%). GFCF in construction slowed down (+0.2% after +0.6%). Finally, investment in market services excluding construction slowed down slightly (+0.9% after +1.0%) due to investment in information and communication (+0.1% after +1.5%), while investment in business services, which includes legal fees related to property transactions, accelerated (+1.6% after +0.8%).

Overall in 2025, investment recovered slightly (+0.2% after -1.3% in 2024), supported by investment in information and communication (+3.4% after +4.1%) and by a rebound in legal, accounting and technical services (+5.0% after -1.7%). Conversely, investment in construction declined again (-1.4% after -1.7%), as did investment in transport equipment (-3.5% after -2.5%).

Foreign trade continues to contribute positively to GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+0.9 points after +0.5 points in the previous quarter).

Exports slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+0.9% after +3.2%). On the goods side, exports of transport equipment slowed down but remained strong (+5.4% after +14.3%), particularly in aeronautics and naval. Exports of agri-food products stabilised after a sharp decline in the previous quarter (+0.0% after -2.6%), and exports of agricultural products fell back (-2.5% after +0.8%). In terms of services, exports rebounded sligthly (+0.2% after -0.3%).

Imports fell back sharply (-1.7% after +1.5%). Imports of energy, water and waste declined significantly (-5.2% after +0,8%), as did imports of refined petroleum products (-11.1% after +1.1%). Imports of agricultural products dropped (-3.3% after +2.9%). Imports of transport equipment fell also back after two quarters of strong growth (-2.6% after +4.8% in the third quarter).

Finally, on the services side, imports decreased anew (-0.2% after +0.6%).

Overall, imports rebounded in 2025 (+2.9% after -1.3% in 2024) while exports slowed down (+1.4% after +2.4%). As a result, the annual contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth became negative, amounting to -0.5 points in 2025 (after +1.3 points).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth remained negative this quarter (-1.0 point after -0.4 points). Aeronautical products were again strongly destocked, following heavy stockpiling at the beginning of the year. Naval products also contributed to destocking this quarter, with the delivery of an ocean liner in October. Likewise, petroleum products contributed negatively to inventory changes this quarter.

The GDP growth estimate for the first, second and third quarters of 2025 has not been revised (after rounding).Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment coefficients (SA) and working day adjustment coefficients (WDA) have been updated.