Informations Rapides · 30 October 2025 · n° 269

GDP accelerated in Q3 2025 (+0.5% after +0.3%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* accelerated in the third quarter of 2025, increasing by 0.5%, after +0.3% in the second quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) increased (+0.3 points contribution to growth, after +0.2 points in Q2 2025). Gross fixed capital formation picked up moderately (+0.4% after 0.0%) and household consumption maintained its pace (+0.1% after +0.1%).

Foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth in the third quarter (+0.9 points after -0.4 points): exports accelerated sharply this quarter (+2.2% after +0.3%), while imports fell slightly (-0.4% after +1.4%).

Finally, changes in inventories made a negative contribution to GDP this quarter: -0.6 points after +0.5 points in Q2 2025.

Total production (goods and services) increased again in the third quarter of 2025, albeit more strongly, rising by 0.8% after +0.3% in the previous quarter.

Production in the manufacturing industry accelerated this quarter (+1.1% after +0.1%). It rebounded sharply in refineries (+10.6% after -10.2%) after a beginning of the year marked by maintenance shutdowns. It was also up in other manufactured goods (+0.7% after +0.2%) and in capital goods (+0.4% after +0.5%). Production of transport equipment slowed but remained buoyant this quarter (+2.8% after +4.8%), particularly in aeronautics. Conversely, production in the food and beverage industries continued to fall (-1.3% after -2.2%). Electricity production rose sharply this quarter, in line with the rebound in consumption.

Production of market services remained buoyant in the third quarter (+0.7% as in the previous quarter), driven upwards by production in information and communication (+1.6% after +0.4%) and in business services (+1.2% after +0.7%). By contrast, production in the accommodation and catering services (-0.5% after +1.8%), and in transport services (-0.6% after +0.3%) fell back.

Production remained virtually stable in construction (+0.1% after -0.1%).

Household consumption increased slightly in the third quarter of 2025 (+0.1% as in the previous quarter).

Purchases of goods were stable in the third quarter (+0.0% after +0.1%). On the one hand, they were penalised by a sharp fall in food consumption (including tobacco) (-1.0% after +1.5%), partly due to a knock-on effect following the dynamic purchases of the second quarter. On the other hand, they were buoyed by a rebound in energy consumption (+1.3% after -2.4%), following a second quarter characterised by mild temperatures for the season.

Household consumption of services slowed down (+0.2% after +0.5%). It was penalised by the accommodation and catering services (-0.7% after +2.3%) and by transport services (-0.5% after +1.5%). By contrast, consumption picked up in information and communication services (+1.1% after -0.2%).

Total GFCF recovered in the third quarter of 2025 (+0.4% after 0.0%). GFCF in manufactured goods rebounded after several consecutive quarters of decline (+0.5% after -0.5%), driven by GFCF in capital goods (+2.1% after +1.2%) and in transport equipment (+0.3% after -2.0%). Investment in services excluding construction was led by investment in information and communication which accelerated sharply (+1.7% after +0.4%). GFCF in construction continued to decline (-0.1% after -0.2%), especially in the building sector.

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was significantly positive in Q3 2025 (+0.9 points, after -0.4 points in the second quarter and -0.5 points in the first quarter).

Exports accelerated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 (+2.2% after +0.3%). They were driven upwards by exports of transport equipment (+8.9% after -2.3%), particularly in aeronautics. Exports were also buoyant in the chemicals industry and in pharmaceutical products. Exports of food and beverage products fell again this quarter (-4.9% after -5.1%), in particular beverages, against a backdrop of trade tensions with China and the United States.

Imports fell back this quarter (-0.4% after +1.4%). Imports of goods fell slightly (-0.3% after +2.3%), with a sharp decline in energy and, to a lesser extent, food products. Imports of services continued to fall (-0.6% after -1.1%).

Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (-0.6 points, after +0.5 points). This contribution came mainly from aeronautics (after two consecutive quarters of strong positive contributions) and, to a lesser extent, from chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

GDP growth for the second quarter of 2025 has not been revised (after rounding). However, the contribution of foreign trade was slightly revised downwards (to -0.4 points instead of -0.3 points), mirrored by an upward revision of domestic demand (to +0.2 points instead of +0.1 points).

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the coefficients for seasonal adjustment (SA) and working-day adjustment (WDA) have been updated.