Informations Rapides · 30 July 2025 · n° 189

GDP accelerated moderately in Q2 2025 (+0.3% after +0.1%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* accelerated moderately in the second quarter of 2025, increasing by 0.3%, after +0.1% in the first quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) was sluggish (zero contribution to growth, -0.1 points in Q1 2025). Household consumption rebounded slightly (+0.1% after -0.3%) while gross fixed capital formation continued to fall (-0.3% after -0.1%).

Foreign trade kept contributing negatively to GDP growth in the second quarter (-0.2 points after -0.5 points): exports rebounded slightly this quarter (+0.2% after -1.1%), while imports accelerated (+0.8% after +0.3%).

Finally, changes in inventories made once again a positive contribution to GDP this quarter: +0.5 points after +0.7 points in Q1 2025.

Total production (goods and services) increased again in the second quarter of 2025, rising by 0.2%, as in the previous quarter.

Production in the manufacturing industry slowed this quarter (+0.1% after +0.5%). It continued to fall sharply in refineries (-10.6% after -3.5%) as a result of maintenance shutdowns at several sites in April and May. It also fell back in the food and beverage industries (-2.0% after +1.4%). Production in other manufactured goods slowed (+0.1% after +0.3%), particularly pharmaceuticals, after a buoyant first quarter. By contrast, production of transport equipment accelerated sharply this quarter (+4.8% after +1.6%), particularly in the aerospace sector. Automobile production rose again, but remained well below its level at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, electricity production fell this quarter, in line with the fall in consumption due to mild temperatures.

Production of market services accelerated in the second quarter (+0.6% after +0.3% in the previous quarter). In particular, it rose sharply anew in the accommodation and catering services (+1.9% after -0.4%), as well as in wholesale and retail trade (+0.8% after -0.2%). It rebounded more moderately in transport services (+0.1% after -0.2%) and accelerated slightly in business services (+0.7% after +0.5%).

Production stabilised in construction (0.0% after -0.4%).

Household consumption rebounded slightly in the second quarter of 2025 (+0.1% after -0.3% in the previous quarter).

Purchases of goods rebounded in the second quarter (+0.1% after -0.6%), driven by a strong rebound in food consumption (including tobacco) (+1.7% after -1.0%). This recovery could be explained in particular by the positioning of the Easter holidays at the end of April and by favourable weather in April and May. Tobacco consumption also rebounded partially, after falling sharply in the previous quarter, following the price rise in January.

In contrast, energy consumption fell sharply (-2.4% after +0.8%), particularly gas and electricity, due to mild temperatures for the season. Consumption of transport equipment remained stable (0.0% after -3.9%), penalised by the tightening of the ecological penalty in March, and the end, in May, of the exemption from registration tax for electric vehicles.

Household consumption of services accelerated (+0.6% after +0.3%), driven by a strong recovery in the accommodation and catering services following a deterioration in the first quarter (+2.4% after -0.5%). It also accelerated in transport services (+0.9% after +0.4%). It rebounded moderately in household services (+0.2% after -0.1%).

Total GFCF fell again in the second quarter of 2025 (-0.3% after -0.1%). Investment in construction continued to fall (-0.4% after -1.0%), as well as GFCF in manufactured goods (-0.9% after 6 quarters of decline), while investment in services excluding construction slowed sharply (+0.4% after +1.3%).

Investment in manufactured goods was penalised by sharp fall in GFCF in transport equipment (-2.3% after +0.8%) and other manufactured goods (-0.8% after -2.1%). Conversely, GFCF in capital goods rebounded (+0.6% after -0.2%). Investment in services excluding construction was held back by investment in information and communication, which fell back (-0.3% after +1.4%) for the first time since 2020. GFCF was, however, buoyed by investment in real estate services (+1.4% after -0.4%), following the upturn in real estate transactions.

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth remained negative in Q2 2025 (-0.2 points, after -0.5 points in the previous quarter).

Exports rebounded slightly in the second quarter of 2025 (+0.2% after -1.1%). They were driven up by exports of other manufactured goods (+1.1% after -3.1%): they were back slightly on the rise in the chemicals industry, and those of pharmaceutical products were buoyant. Conversely, exports of transport equipment fell significantly again this quarter (-4.0% after -4.2%), particularly in the aeronautical industry. Exports of electricity were virtually stable this quarter. Exports of services rose slightly (+0.1% after +0.3%).

Imports accelerated this quarter (+0.8% after +0.3%). They were buoyed by a very strong rebound in refining (+11.8% after -2.1%), as a result of lower production due to refinery closures in April and May. Imports of transport equipment also rebounded (+5.6% after -5.3%). Imports of automobiles recovered after 6 consecutive quarters of decline, while imports of aeronautical products rose again. Imports of services were down (+0.6% after +0.1%).

Inventory changes contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+0.5 points, after ‑0.7 points in Q1 2025). This contribution came from transport equipment, in particular aeronautics and, to a lesser extent, automobile industry.

The estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 was not revised (after rounding). However, the contribution of foreign trade was revised upwards (to -0.5 points instead of -0.8 points), mirrored by a downward revision of inventory changes (to +0.7 points instead of +1.0 point).

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the coefficients for seasonal adjustment (SA) and working-day adjustment (WDA) have been updated.