Informations Rapides ·
25 July 2025 · n° 186
In July 2025, the outlook for housing starts has fallen back Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - July 2025
In July 2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has deteriorated. They are also more pessimistic about the study of new projects and the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity, despite a slightly less negative assessment on the demand addressed to them.
The seasonal coefficients have been updated in July 2025, as usual at this time of the year. This has led to revisions to all the results previously released for this survey. Those revisions are for the most part relatively minor and do not affect the interpretation of the economic assessment.
In July 2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for housing starts has deteriorated. They are also more pessimistic about the study of new projects and the evolution of their clients’ financing capacity, despite a slightly less negative assessment on the demand addressed to them.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q3 | -29.2 | -22.9 |
| 2025-Q2 | -32.1 | -17.4 |
| 2025-Q1 | -36.5 | -28.9 |
| 2024-Q4 | -47.8 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -46.1 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.3 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.5 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -51.7 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.4 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.6 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.9 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -27.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.6 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.4 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.4 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.6 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.4 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.5 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -16.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.3 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.9 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.7 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.3 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.9 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.0 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.2 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -3.9 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.4 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The outlook for housing starts has fallen back sharply, despite a slightly less negative opinion on demand
In July 2025, the balance of opinion regarding prospects for housing starts has fallen back, particularly for rental housing (mainly social housing). Outlook for housing starts intended for sale has also decreased, although to a lesser extent. Despite a marked increase over the past year, all three balances remain well below their long-term average.
Far fewer real estate developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices. This proportion has thus dropped sharply, approaching the historically low levels observed between July 2023 and October 2024, yet without quite reaching them.
Nevertheless, the improvement in developers’ opinion on the demand for housing addressed to them has continued. The corresponding balance has increased for the third consecutive quarter, while still remaining well below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has declined sharply, moving closer to its long-term average.
Real estate developers are less optimistic regarding the evolution of their clients' financing capacity
In July2025, developers’ opinion regarding the outlook for changes in their clients’ financing capacity has deteriorated: the corresponding balance has fallen back sharply and has returned to its long-term average.
The balance of opinion regarding the evolution of the average down payment by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months is stable, nearly at its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has slightly declined, and remains well below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 24 | Jan. 25 | Apr. 25 | Jul. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -48 | -37 | -32 | -29 |
| Expected housing starts | -9 | -27 | -29 | -17 | -23 |
| for sale | -17 | -44 | -48 | -33 | -37 |
| for rent | 1 | 0 | -5 | 3 | -5 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 62 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 51 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -14 | -17 | -15 | -20 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -14 | -19 | -8 | -10 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -21 | -22 | -17 | -17 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -12 | -19 | -4 | -21 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 June 2025 and 22 July 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 October 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 25 June 2025 and 22 July 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 October 2025 at 12:00 pm.