Informations Rapides · 24 July 2025 · n° 178

In July 2025, demand, both past and expected, has weakened according to the industrials Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2025

In July 2025, business leaders in the manufacturing industry consider that demand over the last three months, particularly foreign demand, has been less dynamic than in the previous quarter. They also expect demand over the next three months to fall back, particularly foreign demand. Besides, the share of industrials reporting that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means even if they received more orders (production bottlenecks) has increased and reached its highest level since April 2023.

In July 2025, the balances of opinion on the past change in demand, both global and foreign, have fallen back, particularly the one on foreign demand. Both have gone back below their long-term average. Regarding the expected demand, both global and foreign, the balances of opinion have also resumed their downward trend, with the one on foreign demand even more sharply so. Both have also gone back below their average.

The share of industrial companies at the limit of their production capacity has slightly increased in July 2025: 40% report that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders, against 38% in the previous quarter. This proportion has departed from its average, reaching its highest level since April 2023. At the same time, slightly more business leaders than three months ago consider their production capacities to be sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months. The associated balance of opinion has rebounded very marginally anew but remains well below its average. The production capacity utilisation rate, meanwhile, is stable: at 82%, it is just below its average level.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investments over the next three months has slightly fallen back and has moved away from its average.

From April to July 2025, the proportion of business leaders reporting encountering hiring difficulties has stabilized at 40%. This share, which has been declining almost continuously since October 2022, remains above its long-term average, but has reached its lowest level since July 2017, excluding COVID-19 pandemic.

In July 2025, business leaders report, on average, that their selling prices have decreased by 0.1% over the last three months, a change identical to that reported in April 2025. For the next three months, business leaders anticipate a slight increase in their selling prices (+0.2%).

The balance on general prospects of change in hourly wages in the manufacturing industry has fallen back and has deviated from its long-term average. It has been hovering since January 2025 at levels unseen since 2016, excluding COVID-19 pandemic.

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has been deemed more deteriorated than in April: the associated balance of opinion has decreased again and has returned below its average.