Informations Rapides ·
25 October 2024 · n° 268
In October 2024, activity prospects in civil engineering have degraded Quaterly survey of public works - October 2024
In October 2024, the business climate in civil engineering has sharply darkened: business managers are more pessimistic than in July regarding both their expected activity and the evolution of their workforce or the level of order books. The balance of opinion on past activity has rebounded strongly, as a reaction to the month of July.
In October 2024, the business climate in civil engineering has sharply darkened: business managers are more pessimistic than in July regarding both their expected activity and the evolution of their workforce or the level of order books. The balance of opinion on past activity has rebounded strongly, as a reaction to the month of July.
Business managers’ opinion on expected activity has degraded
In October 2024, business managers’ opinion on expected activity over the next three months has degraded. The corresponding balance of opinion has fallen sharply and moved slightly below its long-term average. For business managers distinguishing their type of clientele (whether public or private), the balances of opinion have also deteriorated, a move that is little more pronounced among private clients.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 24 | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | Oct. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -2 | 1 | -21 | -4 |
| Past activity in the public-sector | -11 | -11 | -6 | -27 | -20 |
| Past activity in the private-sector | -8 | -6 | -3 | -22 | -5 |
| Expected activity | -11 | 0 | -8 | -7 | -12 |
| Expected activity in the public-sector | -15 | 2 | -15 | -12 | -15 |
| Expected activity in the private-sector | -14 | -10 | -9 | -7 | -19 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -14 | -20 | -17 | -21 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 41 | 45 | 33 | 37 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of a lack of demand (in %) | 36 | 33 | 34 | 37 | 45 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 25 | 21 | 16 | 22 | 27 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by customer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q4 | -4.3 | -12.3 |
| 2024-Q3 | -21.0 | -6.6 |
| 2024-Q2 | 1.0 | -8.2 |
| 2024-Q1 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2023-Q4 | -6.3 | -12.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -14.0 | -12.6 |
| 2023-Q2 | -6.9 | -9.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 4.5 | -14.7 |
| 2022-Q4 | -2.7 | -5.1 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.8 | -16.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | 1.4 | -14.3 |
| 2022-Q1 | -5.0 | -3.1 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.6 | 7.4 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.9 | 6.8 |
| 2021-Q2 | -11.0 | -8.6 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.7 | -21.4 |
| 2020-Q4 | 4.3 | -28.9 |
| 2020-Q3 | -90.0 | 18.6 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.6 | -5.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.7 | 11.1 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.6 | 19.2 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.0 | 22.6 |
| 2019-Q1 | 33.2 | 25.1 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.4 | 26.9 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.2 | 28.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.0 | 32.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.8 | 22.3 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | 35.3 | 28.6 |
| 2017-Q2 | 28.2 | 19.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 12.3 | 3.1 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
However, the balance of opinion on past activity has rebounded strongly and has returned to a level almost identical to its long-term average. This rebound is partly explained by a pendulum effect compared to July, which recorded a sharp drop in past activity, due in particular to poor weather conditions during the second quarter. The balances of opinion of entrepreneurs on past activity by type of clientele have also rebounded: the rebound of the balance relating to public clients is less strong compared to that on private clients, although both had deteriorated in a comparable manner during the previous quarter.
The economic uncertainty felt by public works contractors has increased again.
Order books have been judged slightly less garnished than in July
In October 2024, the balance of opinion relating to the level of order books of business managers in the sector has fallen and has moved closer to its long-term average.
Employment prospects have slightly deteriorated
In October 2024, the balance of opinion on the evolution of the workforce size over the next three months has deteriorated slightly. However, its level remains significantly higher than its long period average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower have been mentioned a little more often
In October 2024, 37% of companies have reported difficulties linked to a lack of manpower, a share in slight increase remaining significantly above its long period average. The proportion of companies reporting that they are facing demand constraints has also increased again: at 45%, it stands well above its average level.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 19 September 2024 and 16 October 2024.
Next issue: 24 January 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 19 September 2024 and 16 October 2024.
Next issue: 24 January 2025 at 12:00 pm.