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Informations Rapides · 25 July 2024 · n° 177
Informations rapidesIn July 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has sharply darkened Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has darkened. At 95, the synthetic indicator has lost four points and has clearly moved away from its long-period average (100), reaching its lowest level since December 2020. The balance of opinion on the level of the foreign order books, as well as all balances on the evolution of the production (both past and future) have degraded.

Informations rapides
No 177
Paru le :Paru le25/07/2024
Prochaine parution le : 21/11/2024 at 08:45 - November 2024
Warning

The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2024. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has darkened. At 95, the synthetic indicator has lost four points and has clearly moved away from its long-period average (100), reaching its lowest level since December 2020. The balance of opinion on the level of the foreign order books, as well as all balances on the evolution of the production (both past and future) have degraded.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2024-07 95.5
2024-06 98.9
2024-05 99.5
2024-04 100.0
2024-03 102.0
2024-02 100.7
2024-01 99.0
2023-12 99.4
2023-11 99.0
2023-10 98.9
2023-09 98.7
2023-08 96.7
2023-07 100.8
2023-06 100.3
2023-05 99.3
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.0
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.5
2022-12 101.6
2022-11 101.9
2022-10 103.8
2022-09 102.5
2022-08 103.2
2022-07 105.4
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 107.0
2022-04 107.9
2022-03 107.1
2022-02 111.3
2022-01 112.5
2021-12 109.3
2021-11 110.5
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.5
2021-08 109.2
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.5
2021-03 98.0
2021-02 96.9
2021-01 95.9
2020-12 94.8
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 94.7
2020-09 94.7
2020-08 91.0
2020-07 81.1
2020-06 76.6
2020-05 70.0
2020-04 66.4
2020-03 97.2
2020-02 100.2
2020-01 102.2
2019-12 99.2
2019-11 102.8
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.5
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 100.9
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.5
2019-04 101.0
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.2
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.7
2018-10 104.9
2018-09 108.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.4
2018-06 109.5
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.3
2018-03 110.6
2018-02 112.3
2018-01 113.7
2017-12 112.1
2017-11 112.1
2017-10 112.0
2017-09 111.7
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 109.0
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.1
2017-03 105.4
2017-02 106.5
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.6
2016-06 101.5
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 103.0
2016-01 102.8
2015-12 102.6
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.6
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.6
2015-04 101.5
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.3
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.3
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.1
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.7
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.5
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.6
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.7
2012-09 92.5
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.9
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.7
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.5
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.7
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.6
2010-10 103.9
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.2
2010-07 97.0
2010-06 95.4
2010-05 96.2
2010-04 94.7
2010-03 90.8
2010-02 88.2
2010-01 89.8
2009-12 86.9
2009-11 87.0
2009-10 84.7
2009-09 83.4
2009-08 80.4
2009-07 75.8
2009-06 74.2
2009-05 71.7
2009-04 70.0
2009-03 66.0
2009-02 67.9
2009-01 72.1
2008-12 72.8
2008-11 79.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.4
2008-03 110.1
2008-02 110.4
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.6
2007-11 112.4
2007-10 110.1
2007-09 110.7
2007-08 111.1
2007-07 111.7
2007-06 111.4
2007-05 110.2
2007-04 112.1
2007-03 111.5
2007-02 111.9
2007-01 108.4
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-10 107.3
2006-09 108.2
2006-08 108.6
2006-07 109.0
2006-06 108.7
2006-05 108.9
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.4
2006-02 106.6
2006-01 103.1
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.8
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.5
2005-03 99.5
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Business climate 100 100 99 99 95
Past production 5 -1 -1 -2 -5
Finished-goods inventory 12 10 12 8 9
Overall order books -18 -19 -18 -18 -20
Foreign order books -14 -9 -7 -9 -18
Past workforce size -8 4 -2 0 2
Expected workforce size -9 4 3 3 2
Personal production expectations 6 9 3 2 -5
General production expectations -7 -9 -9 -12 -18
Expected trend in selling prices 4 5 2 4 7
Economic uncertainty felt** 29 27 27 30 24
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the level of the foreign order books has clearly degraded

In July 2024, the balance of opinion associated with the level of the foreign order books has clearly degraded and has gone back below its long-period average. It has reached its lowest level since May 2021. The one relative to the overall order books has diminished and has gone back below its average too.

All balances of opinion on the evolution of the production have diminished. The one concerning the personal production expectations over the next three months, decreasing since April 2024, has clearly declined. It has moved away from its average again and it has reached its lowest level since July 2023. The balance of opinion relative to the general prospects of production in the industry has also sharply diminished and has reached its lowest level since November 2020. Finally, the balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has diminished quite more softly but has moved away from its average too. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders has reduced.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of finished-goods inventories has slightly rebounded but remains below its average.

Concerning the workforce size, the balance of opinion on their past change has increased again while the one on their future change has slightly diminished. Both are well above their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has increased again and has gone back above its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has sharply diminished but remains above its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is stable, above its average. In total, the share of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only is stable: at 25%, it remains above its long-term average. Finally, the share of companies declaring difficulties of demand only has retreated after four consecutive months of increase: at 27%, it remains nonetheless well below its long-period average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 9 9 9 10
Sourcing difficulties 11 15 14 13 13
Workforce shortage 9 20 20 20 14
Difficulties of supply only 22 26 25 25 25
Difficulties of demand only 40 28 29 30 27
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has sharply darkened in the manufacture of transport equipment

In July 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable. It remains clearly below its long-period average. The balance of opinion associated with the current level of finished-goods inventories has sharply rebounded and has gone back above its average. The balances related to the evolution of the past production and to the level of the overall order books have slightly rebounded but remain below their average.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has diminished a little and has moved away from its average. The balance of opinion on the evolution of the past production has retreated and has gone back clearly below its long-period average. However, the balance on the personal production expectations has increased again and has almost reached its long-period average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has sharply fallen and has gone back to its long-period average, its lowest level since September 2022. It has diminished the most sharply in the sub-sector of “other transport equipment” where the indicator remains above its average, but has reached its lowest level since September 2023: the balances of opinion on the level of the order books, both overall and foreign, have clearly decreased. In the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers”, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has decreased and has reached its lowest level since August 2022: the balance on the personal production expectations has retreated and the balances on the order books have degraded.

Finally, the business climate indicator in “other manufacturing” has diminished again. At 94, the synthetic indicator is clearly below its long-period average. All the balances of opinion on the production have diminished. However, the one relative to the level of the overall order books has rebounded. The business climate indicator has decreased in all sub-sectors except for the manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products and in the manufacture of other industrial products.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2024-07 91.7 97.2 100.3 94.4
2024-06 92.2 99.2 109.4 95.2
2024-05 90.3 99.3 109.0 96.7
2024-04 92.1 96.9 111.1 95.2
2024-03 89.6 102.2 112.2 95.9
2024-02 86.8 98.4 111.1 96.4
2024-01 86.8 98.8 112.3 94.3
2023-12 85.9 98.6 111.5 95.2
2023-11 86.1 103.7 110.5 94.3
2023-10 85.0 101.1 111.9 94.8
2023-09 88.0 104.6 103.2 95.8
2023-08 88.0 102.2 102.9 95.1
2023-07 91.6 106.3 111.9 94.6
2023-06 87.1 105.6 105.2 94.7
2023-05 92.4 106.2 103.8 94.9
2023-04 93.9 109.6 103.5 97.2
2023-03 97.2 111.5 103.6 98.4
2023-02 101.7 109.8 104.2 96.4
2023-01 100.7 110.9 103.1 96.7
2022-12 99.5 112.1 102.3 95.9
2022-11 104.8 110.9 103.6 95.9
2022-10 108.8 113.9 104.7 96.9
2022-09 107.2 111.4 99.6 98.6
2022-08 107.5 112.7 100.0 99.6
2022-07 107.2 112.4 105.3 101.6
2022-06 107.3 112.2 101.9 105.7
2022-05 107.0 111.8 101.4 104.8
2022-04 109.1 113.2 101.7 108.3
2022-03 109.7 111.8 99.7 107.6
2022-02 110.8 114.7 104.0 111.6
2022-01 112.1 115.7 104.6 110.8
2021-12 116.4 116.4 91.2 112.2
2021-11 115.8 116.3 97.4 113.9
2021-10 113.4 115.8 90.5 111.7
2021-09 109.6 115.9 89.5 113.1
2021-08 111.1 119.3 92.5 113.0
2021-07 114.2 114.7 92.0 114.6
2021-06 116.4 115.2 89.9 110.7
2021-05 116.0 111.7 89.8 110.3
2021-04 105.7 112.7 88.7 107.0
2021-03 100.1 105.9 83.1 103.9
2021-02 94.6 105.0 89.0 101.4
2021-01 91.7 103.1 87.1 100.6
2020-12 89.3 95.2 88.9 101.8
2020-11 93.3 91.1 90.8 95.0
2020-10 94.4 93.0 91.5 95.7
2020-09 102.6 90.2 92.8 92.8
2020-08 96.5 89.8 90.8 87.7
2020-07 88.4 84.7 79.8 81.1
2020-06 90.9 79.2 76.1 78.4
2020-05 91.5 76.8 74.9 73.7
2020-04 93.4 76.9 72.5 72.4
2020-03 107.8 98.1 94.9 97.0
2020-02 108.0 98.8 99.4 100.2
2020-01 108.2 99.7 105.5 99.4
2019-12 107.6 97.2 100.8 97.8
2019-11 104.8 98.1 107.5 101.2
2019-10 105.8 96.1 101.3 99.9
2019-09 108.3 99.8 102.6 101.8
2019-08 108.5 99.1 101.5 101.7
2019-07 103.0 102.7 99.7 100.2
2019-06 108.6 98.8 100.4 100.7
2019-05 110.9 103.9 102.2 102.0
2019-04 107.2 101.0 100.5 100.4
2019-03 107.7 100.2 102.2 101.4
2019-02 108.4 104.2 99.6 101.2
2019-01 108.0 102.4 102.0 102.1
2018-12 107.8 102.6 103.1 102.3
2018-11 108.9 102.1 105.2 103.0
2018-10 102.7 106.3 104.3 103.7
2018-09 107.6 107.7 105.8 105.3
2018-08 107.7 107.2 106.6 105.7
2018-07 107.2 107.6 106.7 106.4
2018-06 109.4 107.4 109.9 105.6
2018-05 108.0 110.7 108.4 107.5
2018-04 110.2 109.0 111.6 107.3
2018-03 109.1 109.1 111.2 109.4
2018-02 110.0 109.9 111.7 110.1
2018-01 111.1 111.3 112.1 111.1
2017-12 111.1 111.2 111.0 110.5
2017-11 111.9 109.7 110.2 111.5
2017-10 111.9 109.0 109.1 111.4
2017-09 106.7 107.7 110.1 109.1
2017-08 108.8 106.0 108.9 108.2
2017-07 109.0 108.4 109.1 106.8
2017-06 111.6 108.2 104.9 108.5
2017-05 105.7 108.1 105.3 106.7
2017-04 105.5 106.3 103.9 107.5
2017-03 104.4 103.8 104.7 104.7
2017-02 105.3 103.2 105.7 106.3
2017-01 103.7 101.5 106.3 105.6
2016-12 108.6 103.1 104.7 104.8
2016-11 107.9 99.4 102.0 101.4
2016-10 106.7 97.3 105.9 101.2
2016-09 109.1 98.4 105.3 100.4
2016-08 99.5 98.2 104.1 101.4
2016-07 104.6 97.4 105.4 101.6
2016-06 103.2 97.1 106.1 101.4
2016-05 103.4 97.2 105.9 103.8
2016-04 106.0 100.0 109.3 101.2
2016-03 101.6 99.1 105.9 101.1
2016-02 100.2 100.7 109.3 99.8
2016-01 101.7 100.7 108.2 99.4
2015-12 100.0 98.1 108.0 101.7
2015-11 102.5 99.7 107.9 99.4
2015-10 104.4 98.1 108.2 99.8
2015-09 105.6 96.0 109.3 102.5
2015-08 103.2 97.2 108.5 101.4
2015-07 108.5 98.3 105.0 102.8
2015-06 105.1 97.1 105.4 100.8
2015-05 101.8 97.2 104.9 101.5
2015-04 104.7 96.7 107.1 100.6
2015-03 100.9 94.3 105.3 100.1
2015-02 99.6 94.9 100.6 100.2
2015-01 103.3 93.3 101.4 99.7
2014-12 99.3 92.0 99.5 100.1
2014-11 96.2 92.0 100.0 99.7
2014-10 95.6 92.5 97.1 98.4
2014-09 94.4 92.1 101.0 97.1
2014-08 95.7 93.4 97.7 100.5
2014-07 97.2 89.1 98.7 99.0
2014-06 95.7 91.7 97.8 98.4
2014-05 98.2 93.7 97.7 99.4
2014-04 95.9 92.8 102.6 100.1
2014-03 99.8 92.8 100.6 102.4
2014-02 99.2 93.7 98.1 98.2
2014-01 99.4 91.0 101.9 98.6
2013-12 98.2 91.9 99.5 99.1
2013-11 98.2 92.1 102.2 98.6
2013-10 95.5 90.1 103.5 97.6
2013-09 95.0 89.9 97.3 97.1
2013-08 95.5 91.5 101.2 97.0
2013-07 92.5 89.5 98.5 94.8
2013-06 92.7 89.1 94.5 93.1
2013-05 91.6 89.3 94.8 91.7
2013-04 91.7 89.5 92.7 89.0
2013-03 94.0 88.8 93.4 91.1
2013-02 98.0 88.8 94.3 90.1
2013-01 97.6 87.9 92.9 91.2
2012-12 98.8 87.4 92.3 91.7
2012-11 98.2 87.2 92.8 92.1
2012-10 91.0 86.2 96.0 89.2
2012-09 96.8 91.0 97.7 93.5
2012-08 93.8 90.2 95.2 93.4
2012-07 94.6 90.9 95.5 92.2
2012-06 95.1 90.9 95.6 93.5
2012-05 93.4 94.9 95.1 95.8
2012-04 99.1 95.7 94.4 97.7
2012-03 102.6 96.4 103.2 97.0
2012-02 100.6 96.1 93.7 95.8
2012-01 99.9 96.1 94.7 94.0
2011-12 98.6 96.0 100.0 94.4
2011-11 102.2 96.0 102.7 94.1
2011-10 104.5 98.3 100.2 96.3
2011-09 101.9 99.5 98.5 98.0
2011-08 103.6 100.3 101.8 100.3
2011-07 111.5 102.3 103.6 104.9
2011-06 108.6 104.0 109.4 108.9
2011-05 109.8 103.1 105.0 107.7
2011-04 109.0 104.5 105.9 110.0
2011-03 106.7 106.3 106.2 109.7
2011-02 107.3 101.7 98.9 108.4
2011-01 109.0 103.7 105.0 105.2

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 90 92 92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 99 99 97
          [CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 108 110 108
          [CJ] Electrical equipment 3 96 96 94
          [CK] Machinery and equipment 5 96 94 94
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 109 109 100
          [CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 99 98 95
          [CL2] Other transport equipment 10 114 115 103
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 97 95 94
          [CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 100 101 99
          [CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 98 96 95
          [CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 93 94 91
          [CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 90 89 87
          [CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 95 91 95
          [CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 104 101 102
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of June 2024 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 June 2024 and 22 July 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 23 August 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 June 2024 and 22 July 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 23 August 2024 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: