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Informations Rapides · 22 February 2024 · n° 43
Informations rapidesIn February 2024, the business climate in services has edged down and has moved below its long-term average Monthly survey of services - February 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2024, the business climate in services has deteriorated. At 99, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points and stands just below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 43
Paru le :Paru le22/02/2024
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2024, the business climate in services has deteriorated. At 99, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points and stands just below its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2024-02 99.3
2024-01 101.4
2023-12 100.1
2023-11 99.5
2023-10 99.9
2023-09 101.5
2023-08 101.6
2023-07 101.6
2023-06 101.9
2023-05 101.3
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.7
2023-02 105.2
2023-01 104.4
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.4
2022-10 104.4
2022-09 105.6
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.7
2022-04 108.3
2022-03 108.7
2022-02 111.6
2022-01 105.1
2021-12 107.1
2021-11 113.5
2021-10 112.4
2021-09 110.2
2021-08 108.7
2021-07 110.8
2021-06 112.4
2021-05 106.5
2021-04 91.5
2021-03 93.8
2021-02 87.6
2021-01 91.0
2020-12 89.3
2020-11 75.8
2020-10 87.3
2020-09 93.8
2020-08 93.5
2020-07 88.6
2020-06 77.6
2020-05 49.8
2020-04 38.9
2020-03 92.3
2020-02 105.7
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-10 105.2
2019-09 105.7
2019-08 105.1
2019-07 104.7
2019-06 105.6
2019-05 105.5
2019-04 105.5
2019-03 104.7
2019-02 103.6
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.8
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 102.9
2018-09 104.4
2018-08 104.0
2018-07 104.3
2018-06 104.4
2018-05 104.3
2018-04 105.9
2018-03 106.9
2018-02 106.8
2018-01 107.6
2017-12 108.7
2017-11 107.1
2017-10 106.4
2017-09 106.5
2017-08 106.3
2017-07 103.8
2017-06 103.2
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.2
2017-03 103.2
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.6
2016-12 103.5
2016-11 100.8
2016-10 100.7
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.5
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 100.1
2015-12 97.0
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.5
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.4
2015-02 91.5
2015-01 91.2
2014-12 91.3
2014-11 91.2
2014-10 91.2
2014-09 91.0
2014-08 91.5
2014-07 92.5
2014-06 92.2
2014-05 92.2
2014-04 93.3
2014-03 93.1
2014-02 92.2
2014-01 92.3
2013-12 90.9
2013-11 92.4
2013-10 91.8
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.7
2013-07 86.7
2013-06 86.0
2013-05 84.7
2013-04 83.3
2013-03 84.2
2013-02 87.1
2013-01 88.2
2012-12 87.2
2012-11 85.6
2012-10 86.2
2012-09 87.3
2012-08 87.5
2012-07 89.6
2012-06 90.1
2012-05 92.0
2012-04 95.7
2012-03 93.4
2012-02 92.0
2012-01 92.5
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 95.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.1
2011-06 107.1
2011-05 107.4
2011-04 108.8
2011-03 110.3
2011-02 109.1
2011-01 107.1
2010-12 106.7
2010-11 104.7
2010-10 102.8
2010-09 101.6
2010-08 100.6
2010-07 99.1
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.7
2010-03 94.4
2010-02 94.3
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.2
2009-10 90.7
2009-09 87.6
2009-08 84.2
2009-07 81.7
2009-06 77.9
2009-05 73.3
2009-04 69.2
2009-03 68.8
2009-02 73.8
2009-01 75.0
2008-12 77.6
2008-11 80.6
2008-10 84.5
2008-09 93.1
2008-08 95.1
2008-07 96.6
2008-06 101.0
2008-05 104.2
2008-04 106.7
2008-03 108.4
2008-02 108.4
2008-01 110.3
2007-12 108.9
2007-11 110.1
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 111.3
2007-08 112.1
2007-07 113.0
2007-06 112.5
2007-05 112.8
2007-04 112.9
2007-03 113.2
2007-02 112.3
2007-01 110.8
2006-12 111.2
2006-11 112.9
2006-10 110.6
2006-09 110.5
2006-08 110.4
2006-07 110.3
2006-06 109.1
2006-05 110.4
2006-04 107.7
2006-03 107.4
2006-02 106.2
2006-01 108.9
2005-12 106.9
2005-11 106.4
2005-10 108.3
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.1
2005-07 107.5
2005-06 108.2
2005-05 106.0
2005-04 107.9
2005-03 108.2
2005-02 106.3
2005-01 106.4

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Business managers are more pessimistic concerning their business outlook

In February 2024, business managers in services are more pessimistic than in the previous month about their personal activity prospects: the balances of opinion on the expected activity and on the expected demand have diminished and have moved below their long-term average. Similarly, the balance of opinion related to the activity over the past three months has fallen back and has reached its average level. The one related to the general business outlook for the sector is virtually stable, at its average. At the same time, the balance on the economic uncertainty felt has slightly diminished again.

The balance on the recent change in selling prices has held up, at the same level since December, whereas the one on their expected change has risen a little again. Both remain well above their long-term average.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2024-02 8.0
2024-01 6.2
2023-12 5.4
2023-11 4.5
2023-10 5.4
2023-09 8.6
2023-08 7.2
2023-07 6.2
2023-06 6.7
2023-05 7.3
2023-04 11.9
2023-03 14.5
2023-02 16.1
2023-01 18.6
2022-12 15.8
2022-11 13.2
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 11.2
2022-08 10.7
2022-07 10.8
2022-06 11.4
2022-05 10.3
2022-04 10.3
2022-03 8.0
2022-02 8.2
2022-01 7.1
2021-12 5.2
2021-11 7.0
2021-10 4.5
2021-09 3.9
2021-08 4.3
2021-07 3.7
2021-06 1.0
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -9.7
2021-03 -7.4
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -10.1
2020-12 -8.2
2020-11 -12.5
2020-10 -8.9
2020-09 -3.0
2020-08 -5.3
2020-07 -8.7
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.4
2020-04 -23.9
2020-03 -3.3
2020-02 0.4
2020-01 0.0
2019-12 0.2
2019-11 -0.1
2019-10 1.7
2019-09 -0.6
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.0
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -1.6
2019-04 -3.0
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.6
2019-01 -2.3
2018-12 0.1
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.8
2018-09 -1.5
2018-08 -0.6
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.9
2018-05 -1.8
2018-04 -3.2
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 -3.7
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.4
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.4
2017-09 -1.7
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.5
2017-05 -4.8
2017-04 -5.4
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.7
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

In February 2024, the balances of opinion on the workforce size, past as well as expected, have deteriorated and remain below their average. Nevertheless, the one on the expected workforce size excluding temporary work agencies has rebounded sharply.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Nov. 2023 Dec. 2023 Jan. 2024 Feb. 2024
Composite indicator 100 99 100 101 99
General outlook -7 -9 -8 -8 -7
Past activity 2 0 0 5 2
Expected activity 2 1 4 2 -1
Expected demand 0 -1 -1 4 -2
Past selling prices -3 6 3 3 3
Expected selling prices -2 5 5 6 8
Past employment 2 -2 -4 -4 -8
Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 -1 -5 -3 -4
Expected employment 2 0 -3 1 -1
Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 -3 -2 -4 1
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 11 11 10 9
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

In most sectors, the business climate has deteriorated

In February 2024, the business climate in administrative and support services has deteriorated again. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected demand and activity have declined markedly, moving further away from their average level, as well as the one related to the past workforce size. Conversely, the balance on the expected workforce size has improved.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has retreated and has moved below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the general and personal business outlook have contributed for the most part to the darkening of this climate.

In real estate activities, the business climate, already significantly deteriorated, has fallen back slightly in February. The balances on the expected activity and on the expected demand have diminished, standing well below their average level. Conversely, the one on the expected workforce size has improved.

The business climate indicator in information-communication has declined slightly after several months of stability, but remains above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past and expected activity and on the expected demand have diminished sharply and have moved closer to their average. The one on the expected workforce size has rebounded for its part.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate is stable, below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the expected activity and on the expected demand have increased, as well as the one on the general business outlook, while the one on the expected workforce size has fallen back sharply.

Finally, in road freight transport, the business climate indicator has improved a little but remains deteriorated. In particular, the balance of opinion on the expected activity has sharply risen again.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* Nov. 2023 Dec. 2023 Jan. 2024 Feb. 2024
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 87 91 94 95
General outlook -18 -39 -34 -22 -28
Past activity -6 -36 -33 -19 -22
Expected activity -7 -32 -21 -16 -9
Expected demand -9 -31 -19 -20 -18
Past employment -5 -9 -18 -16 -20
Expected employment -6 -11 -17 -11 -12
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 97 104 97 97
General outlook -13 -18 -3 -13 -11
Past activity -7 -19 -12 -2 -9
Expected activity -7 -15 -4 -19 -17
Expected demand -9 -12 -5 -22 -19
Past employment -5 3 -13 -8 1
Expected employment -6 -6 -4 6 -5
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 104 104 104 103
General outlook 0 3 3 3 4
Past activity 8 26 24 27 12
Expected activity 9 22 17 17 13
Expected demand 10 18 14 31 17
Past employment 6 3 0 -1 -2
Expected employment 10 4 9 3 7
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 88 87 92 91
General outlook -4 -12 -13 -11 -11
Past activity 6 -6 -8 0 2
Expected activity 6 -3 -5 1 -2
Expected demand 1 -7 -11 -4 -8
Past employment 3 -2 -4 0 -3
Expected employment 3 -5 -3 -3 1
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 94 98 101 99
General outlook -8 -11 -9 -4 -7
Past activity -1 -10 -15 -10 -8
Expected activity -2 -11 -4 -2 -5
Expected demand -5 -14 -7 -7 -8
Past employment 1 -6 -5 -2 -5
Expected employment 1 -3 -1 2 2
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 100 100 97 94
General outlook -3 -1 -2 -6 -3
Past activity 5 -2 0 -2 -2
Expected activity 5 4 6 -1 -6
Expected demand 3 5 4 0 -5
Past employment 7 -8 -3 -5 -14
Expected employment 7 6 -1 0 5
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of January 2024 is confirmed (after rounding).

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 29 January and 19 February 2024.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 March 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 29 January and 19 February 2024.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 March 2024 at 8:45 am.

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