Informations Rapides ·
23 November 2023 · n° 295
In November 2023, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - November 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has retreated sharply. The composite indicator has lost four points compared to September and stands at 90. It is now well below its long-term average (100). This deterioration of the business climate in November is mainly the result of the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the past sales and the ordering intentions.
- The balances of opinion on the past sales and the ordering intentions have diminished
- The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have retreated
- Wholesalers are less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- The balance of opinion on the stock levels has increased again a little
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has retreated sharply. The composite indicator has lost four points compared to September and stands at 90. It is now well below its long-term average (100). This deterioration of the business climate in November is mainly the result of the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the past sales and the ordering intentions.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B6 | 90.4 |
| 2023-B5 | 93.5 |
| 2023-B4 | 92.0 |
| 2023-B3 | 93.6 |
| 2023-B2 | 97.9 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 99.9 |
| 2022-B5 | 95.6 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.5 |
| 2022-B1 | 115.9 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.5 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.9 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.3 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 86.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.1 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 97.0 |
| 2020-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.1 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.6 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.8 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.5 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.4 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.7 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.7 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.4 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.6 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.4 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.6 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.6 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 98.0 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B4 | 103.0 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.7 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.5 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.4 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.6 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.4 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.9 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.3 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.9 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.5 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.3 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 96.0 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.3 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.2 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.1 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.5 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.1 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.6 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.1 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 78.0 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.5 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.9 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.7 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.3 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.2 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.9 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.2 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.5 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.6 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.5 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.1 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.1 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.9 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.4 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.7 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balances of opinion on the past sales and the ordering intentions have diminished
In November 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding their ordering intentions has retreated: decreasing almost continuously since January 2022, it has reached its lowest level since January 2021. It has diminished in all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, except for the trade of domestic goods. The balances related to the received merchandise, as a whole or more specifically from abroad, have both retreated and have moved away from their long-term average.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales has diminished again and has reached its lowest level since July 2020, while the one related to the sales abroad has increased slightly and remains below its own.
The balance on the general business outlook has retreated sharply and has moved away from its long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | May 23 | July 23 | Sep. 23 | Nov. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 94 | 92 | 94 | 90 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -28 | -29 | -28 | -35 |
| Sales | -14 | -23 | -22 | -23 | -28 |
| export sales | -15 | -24 | -25 | -25 | -24 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -16 | -17 | -16 | -21 |
| received from abroad | -11 | -19 | -21 | -18 | -20 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -18 | -21 | -18 | -23 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -24 | -25 | -20 | -23 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -22 | -19 | -16 | -22 |
| Stocks | 8 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -6 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -4 |
| Cash position | -9 | -11 | -9 | -9 | -9 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 14 | -3 | 12 | 3 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have retreated
In November 2023, the balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in the selling prices of wholesalers have retreated: the former has fallen below its average while the latter has moved away from its own.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B6 | 6.9 |
| 2023-B5 | 9.2 |
| 2023-B4 | 3.6 |
| 2023-B3 | 6.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 27.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 38.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 40.6 |
| 2022-B5 | 41.0 |
| 2022-B4 | 42.7 |
| 2022-B3 | 48.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 47.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 37.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 39.7 |
| 2021-B5 | 33.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 26.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 10.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -3.5 |
| 2020-B5 | 4.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.3 |
| 2020-B3 | -4.2 |
| 2020-B2 | -1.4 |
| 2020-B1 | 7.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 2.7 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 7.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 8.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 12.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 9.0 |
| 2018-B3 | 6.4 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.3 |
| 2017-B6 | 10.2 |
| 2017-B5 | 3.8 |
| 2017-B4 | 5.3 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.1 |
| 2017-B1 | 9.2 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers are less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in workforce size have diminished again: the former has moved away from its average level while the latter, after five two-month periods of decline in a row, has moved below its own.
The balance of opinion on the stock levels has increased again a little
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased again a little and has moved away from its average. This is the case in particular in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position is stable, at the level of its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | May 23 | July 23 | Sep. 23 | Nov. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -26 | -23 | -29 | -28 |
| Export sales | -16 | -45 | -38 | -41 | -23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -45 | -32 | -41 | -26 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -20 | -27 | -12 | -21 |
| Current stocks | 5 | -4 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -22 | -16 | -24 | -21 |
| Export sales | -13 | -28 | -22 | -33 | -23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -10 | -13 | -13 | -7 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -14 | -11 | -14 | -21 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -8 | -13 | -13 | -14 |
| Export sales | -11 | -14 | -18 | -13 | -16 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -5 | -13 | -15 | -16 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -12 | -11 | -14 | -11 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -28 | -41 | -17 | -30 |
| Export sales | -12 | -40 | -39 | -32 | -28 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -48 | -55 | -33 | -29 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -25 | -35 | -17 | -21 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 7 | -2 | 2 | 18 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -19 | -25 | -25 | -28 |
| Export sales | -21 | -22 | -26 | -23 | -35 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -4 | -14 | -10 | -23 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -21 | -25 | -27 | -34 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 24 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -33 | -31 | -33 | -41 |
| Export sales | -18 | -17 | -21 | -21 | -22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -24 | -20 | -17 | -23 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -18 | -30 | -23 | -29 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 18 | 2 | 19 | 9 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in September 2023 is unchanged (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 October and 20 November 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 25 January 2024 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade