Informations Rapides ·
24 October 2023 · n° 272
In October 2023, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their
activity has slightly improved Quaterly survey of public works - October 2023
In October 2023, business managers in the civil engineering sector hold a slightly more positive assessment than in July about the evolution of both their recent and upcoming activity over the next three months. For all that, business managers of the sector are less optimistic than three months ago about their order books and the evolution of their workforce size.
- Business manager’s opinion on their expected activity has improved for all types of clients
- The order books are judged slightly less garnished than in July
- Employment prospects are judged less positively in October than in July
- Difficulties due to a lack of manpower remain important
- For further information
In October 2023, business managers in the civil engineering sector hold a slightly more positive assessment than in July about the evolution of both their recent and upcoming activity over the next three months. For all that, business managers of the sector are less optimistic than three months ago about their order books and the evolution of their workforce size.
Business manager’s opinion on their expected activity has improved for all types of clients
In October 2023, business managers are a bit more optimistic than in July regarding their upcoming activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has rebounded slightly and has almost joined back its long term average. All companies do not distinguish, in their responses, their type of clients. For those who have done so, the rebound in the balance of opinion on the expected activity has been sharper, within both the private and the public sector. The balance of opinion on expected activity with private sector is thus back above its long term average, whereas the one within the public sector remains below its own.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | 5 | -5 | -15 | -8 |
| - public-sector project | -11 | -10 | -16 | -26 | -20 |
| - private-sector project | -8 | -1 | -2 | -12 | -15 |
| Expected activity | -12 | -12 | -8 | -15 | -14 |
| - public-sector project | -16 | -18 | -16 | -26 | -20 |
| - private-sector project | -14 | -9 | -7 | -16 | -11 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -15 | -13 | -18 | -20 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 48 | 44 | 43 | 43 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 26 | 26 | 25 | 17 | 31 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by custumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-Q4 | -8.0 | -13.8 |
| 2023-Q3 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| 2023-Q2 | -4.9 | -8.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 5.0 | -12.1 |
| 2022-Q4 | -4.0 | -6.8 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.0 | -18.0 |
| 2022-Q2 | 3.0 | -13.4 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.8 | -1.0 |
| 2021-Q4 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.6 | 5.4 |
| 2021-Q2 | -9.8 | -8.0 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.9 | -19.8 |
| 2020-Q4 | 3.6 | -29.8 |
| 2020-Q3 | -89.9 | 17.7 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.3 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.2 | 10.5 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.9 | 18.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.3 | 22.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | 32.8 | 25.9 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.2 | 26.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.6 | 27.8 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.1 | 32.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.2 | 22.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| 2017-Q3 | 36.2 | 28.4 |
| 2017-Q2 | 27.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.2 | 3.4 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
Business managers have judged more favourably than in July the evolution of their activity over the past three month: after having dropped for two consecutive quarters, the corresponding balance has clearly rebounded and have edged closer to its long term average. Among companies distinguishing their client types, the balance of opinion on the past activities within the public sector has rebounded, in a similar measure to that of the global balance, whereas the one within the private sector has kept on dropping. Both balances stand well below their long term averages.
Way more business managers than in July have considered the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion about the economic uncertainty felt has recovered firmly.
The order books are judged slightly less garnished than in July
In October 2023, slightly fewer business managers than in July have again reported the level of their order books to be higher than normal. The corresponding balance of opinion has dropped back again while still remaining above its long term average.
Employment prospects are judged less positively in October than in July
In October 2023, less business managers than in July have reported that they plan to increase their workforce size over the next three months. The corresponding balance has fallen back, but remains well above its long term average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower remain important
In October 2023, difficulties due to a lack of manpower are mentioned more frequently: at 43%, the share of companies that have reported some is stable, well above its average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 September and 16 October 2023.
Next issue: 26 January 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 September and 16 October 2023.
Next issue: 26 January 2024 at 12:00 pm.