Informations Rapides ·
19 October 2023 · n° 267
In October 2023, the business climate in services has slightly declined again Monthly survey of services - October 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2023, the business climate in services has retrenched a bit again. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point and has reached its long-term average. It stands at its lowest level since April 2021.
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2023, the business climate in services has retrenched a bit again. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point and has reached its long-term average. It stands at its lowest level since April 2021.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator | |
---|---|
2023-10 | 100.3 |
2023-09 | 101.5 |
2023-08 | 101.6 |
2023-07 | 101.6 |
2023-06 | 101.9 |
2023-05 | 101.3 |
2023-04 | 103.0 |
2023-03 | 104.6 |
2023-02 | 105.2 |
2023-01 | 104.4 |
2022-12 | 103.5 |
2022-11 | 103.4 |
2022-10 | 104.4 |
2022-09 | 105.5 |
2022-08 | 106.5 |
2022-07 | 106.1 |
2022-06 | 107.5 |
2022-05 | 108.6 |
2022-04 | 108.2 |
2022-03 | 108.6 |
2022-02 | 111.5 |
2022-01 | 105.1 |
2021-12 | 107.1 |
2021-11 | 113.4 |
2021-10 | 112.4 |
2021-09 | 110.1 |
2021-08 | 108.6 |
2021-07 | 110.8 |
2021-06 | 112.3 |
2021-05 | 106.4 |
2021-04 | 91.5 |
2021-03 | 93.9 |
2021-02 | 87.7 |
2021-01 | 91.1 |
2020-12 | 89.4 |
2020-11 | 76.0 |
2020-10 | 87.4 |
2020-09 | 93.8 |
2020-08 | 93.5 |
2020-07 | 88.6 |
2020-06 | 77.8 |
2020-05 | 50.2 |
2020-04 | 39.4 |
2020-03 | 92.4 |
2020-02 | 105.7 |
2020-01 | 106.0 |
2019-12 | 106.3 |
2019-11 | 105.7 |
2019-10 | 105.1 |
2019-09 | 105.6 |
2019-08 | 105.1 |
2019-07 | 104.7 |
2019-06 | 105.5 |
2019-05 | 105.4 |
2019-04 | 105.5 |
2019-03 | 104.7 |
2019-02 | 103.6 |
2019-01 | 103.5 |
2018-12 | 101.8 |
2018-11 | 103.4 |
2018-10 | 102.9 |
2018-09 | 104.4 |
2018-08 | 104.0 |
2018-07 | 104.3 |
2018-06 | 104.3 |
2018-05 | 104.2 |
2018-04 | 105.9 |
2018-03 | 106.8 |
2018-02 | 106.7 |
2018-01 | 107.5 |
2017-12 | 108.6 |
2017-11 | 107.1 |
2017-10 | 106.3 |
2017-09 | 106.4 |
2017-08 | 106.2 |
2017-07 | 103.8 |
2017-06 | 103.1 |
2017-05 | 102.8 |
2017-04 | 103.2 |
2017-03 | 103.2 |
2017-02 | 102.9 |
2017-01 | 101.6 |
2016-12 | 103.4 |
2016-11 | 100.8 |
2016-10 | 100.7 |
2016-09 | 100.7 |
2016-08 | 100.1 |
2016-07 | 100.3 |
2016-06 | 99.1 |
2016-05 | 100.7 |
2016-04 | 98.3 |
2016-03 | 99.5 |
2016-02 | 99.8 |
2016-01 | 100.1 |
2015-12 | 97.1 |
2015-11 | 99.2 |
2015-10 | 99.4 |
2015-09 | 97.6 |
2015-08 | 98.5 |
2015-07 | 97.4 |
2015-06 | 96.8 |
2015-05 | 95.4 |
2015-04 | 94.0 |
2015-03 | 92.4 |
2015-02 | 91.5 |
2015-01 | 91.2 |
2014-12 | 91.4 |
2014-11 | 91.3 |
2014-10 | 91.2 |
2014-09 | 91.1 |
2014-08 | 91.6 |
2014-07 | 92.5 |
2014-06 | 92.3 |
2014-05 | 92.3 |
2014-04 | 93.3 |
2014-03 | 93.1 |
2014-02 | 92.2 |
2014-01 | 92.3 |
2013-12 | 90.9 |
2013-11 | 92.4 |
2013-10 | 91.8 |
2013-09 | 92.4 |
2013-08 | 88.8 |
2013-07 | 86.7 |
2013-06 | 86.1 |
2013-05 | 84.8 |
2013-04 | 83.4 |
2013-03 | 84.3 |
2013-02 | 87.2 |
2013-01 | 88.3 |
2012-12 | 87.3 |
2012-11 | 85.7 |
2012-10 | 86.3 |
2012-09 | 87.4 |
2012-08 | 87.6 |
2012-07 | 89.7 |
2012-06 | 90.2 |
2012-05 | 92.1 |
2012-04 | 95.7 |
2012-03 | 93.4 |
2012-02 | 92.1 |
2012-01 | 92.6 |
2011-12 | 94.6 |
2011-11 | 95.1 |
2011-10 | 97.3 |
2011-09 | 98.3 |
2011-08 | 100.5 |
2011-07 | 105.0 |
2011-06 | 107.0 |
2011-05 | 107.4 |
2011-04 | 108.8 |
2011-03 | 110.2 |
2011-02 | 109.0 |
2011-01 | 107.0 |
2010-12 | 106.7 |
2010-11 | 104.7 |
2010-10 | 102.8 |
2010-09 | 101.6 |
2010-08 | 100.6 |
2010-07 | 99.1 |
2010-06 | 98.3 |
2010-05 | 99.3 |
2010-04 | 97.7 |
2010-03 | 94.4 |
2010-02 | 94.3 |
2010-01 | 94.1 |
2009-12 | 92.7 |
2009-11 | 92.2 |
2009-10 | 90.7 |
2009-09 | 87.6 |
2009-08 | 84.3 |
2009-07 | 81.9 |
2009-06 | 78.1 |
2009-05 | 73.5 |
2009-04 | 69.4 |
2009-03 | 69.0 |
2009-02 | 74.0 |
2009-01 | 75.2 |
2008-12 | 77.8 |
2008-11 | 80.7 |
2008-10 | 84.6 |
2008-09 | 93.2 |
2008-08 | 95.1 |
2008-07 | 96.6 |
2008-06 | 101.0 |
2008-05 | 104.2 |
2008-04 | 106.6 |
2008-03 | 108.4 |
2008-02 | 108.4 |
2008-01 | 110.2 |
2007-12 | 108.9 |
2007-11 | 110.0 |
2007-10 | 109.9 |
2007-09 | 111.3 |
2007-08 | 112.1 |
2007-07 | 112.9 |
2007-06 | 112.4 |
2007-05 | 112.7 |
2007-04 | 112.8 |
2007-03 | 113.1 |
2007-02 | 112.2 |
2007-01 | 110.7 |
2006-12 | 111.1 |
2006-11 | 112.8 |
2006-10 | 110.6 |
2006-09 | 110.5 |
2006-08 | 110.3 |
2006-07 | 110.2 |
2006-06 | 109.0 |
2006-05 | 110.3 |
2006-04 | 107.6 |
2006-03 | 107.4 |
2006-02 | 106.1 |
2006-01 | 108.8 |
2005-12 | 106.8 |
2005-11 | 106.4 |
2005-10 | 108.2 |
2005-09 | 106.7 |
2005-08 | 107.1 |
2005-07 | 107.4 |
2005-06 | 108.1 |
2005-05 | 106.0 |
2005-04 | 107.9 |
2005-03 | 108.1 |
2005-02 | 106.2 |
2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator

- Source: INSEE
In October, the opinion of business managers on the business outlook of their sector has somewhat darkened
In October 2023, the business managers in services are less optimistic than in the previous month about the general business outlook of their sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has retreated and has moved below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the expected activity and on the expected demand have also slightly diminished, although less markedly, and have reached their long-term average. The balance of opinion on the activity over the past three months remains stable for its part, below its average level.
Concerning the selling prices, the balances related to their recent and expected change have both decreased in October but remain above their long-term average.
The balance on the economic uncertainty felt has slightly rebounded.
tableauExpected prices in services
Expected prices | |
---|---|
2023-10 | 5.2 |
2023-09 | 8.6 |
2023-08 | 7.2 |
2023-07 | 6.2 |
2023-06 | 6.7 |
2023-05 | 7.3 |
2023-04 | 11.9 |
2023-03 | 14.5 |
2023-02 | 16.1 |
2023-01 | 18.6 |
2022-12 | 15.8 |
2022-11 | 13.2 |
2022-10 | 12.2 |
2022-09 | 11.2 |
2022-08 | 10.7 |
2022-07 | 10.8 |
2022-06 | 11.4 |
2022-05 | 10.3 |
2022-04 | 10.3 |
2022-03 | 8.0 |
2022-02 | 8.2 |
2022-01 | 7.1 |
2021-12 | 5.2 |
2021-11 | 7.0 |
2021-10 | 4.5 |
2021-09 | 3.9 |
2021-08 | 4.3 |
2021-07 | 3.7 |
2021-06 | 1.0 |
2021-05 | -0.6 |
2021-04 | -9.7 |
2021-03 | -7.4 |
2021-02 | -11.5 |
2021-01 | -10.1 |
2020-12 | -8.2 |
2020-11 | -12.5 |
2020-10 | -8.9 |
2020-09 | -3.0 |
2020-08 | -5.3 |
2020-07 | -8.7 |
2020-06 | -12.3 |
2020-05 | -22.4 |
2020-04 | -23.9 |
2020-03 | -3.3 |
2020-02 | 0.4 |
2020-01 | 0.0 |
2019-12 | 0.2 |
2019-11 | -0.1 |
2019-10 | 1.7 |
2019-09 | -0.6 |
2019-08 | -1.1 |
2019-07 | 0.0 |
2019-06 | 0.2 |
2019-05 | -1.6 |
2019-04 | -3.0 |
2019-03 | -1.0 |
2019-02 | -2.6 |
2019-01 | -2.3 |
2018-12 | 0.1 |
2018-11 | -2.5 |
2018-10 | -2.8 |
2018-09 | -1.5 |
2018-08 | -0.6 |
2018-07 | -6.8 |
2018-06 | -4.9 |
2018-05 | -1.8 |
2018-04 | -3.2 |
2018-03 | -3.4 |
2018-02 | -3.7 |
2018-01 | -2.4 |
2017-12 | -3.4 |
2017-11 | -2.7 |
2017-10 | -2.4 |
2017-09 | -1.7 |
2017-08 | -5.6 |
2017-07 | -7.0 |
2017-06 | -4.5 |
2017-05 | -4.8 |
2017-04 | -5.4 |
2017-03 | -3.7 |
2017-02 | -3.7 |
2017-01 | -6.3 |
2016-12 | -5.5 |
2016-11 | -7.7 |
2016-10 | -6.8 |
2016-09 | -4.8 |
2016-08 | -5.2 |
2016-07 | -4.7 |
2016-06 | -6.8 |
2016-05 | -6.2 |
2016-04 | -4.9 |
2016-03 | -5.1 |
2016-02 | -4.6 |
2016-01 | -8.5 |
2015-12 | -8.9 |
2015-11 | -5.8 |
2015-10 | -5.9 |
2015-09 | -7.5 |
2015-08 | -6.4 |
2015-07 | -6.9 |
2015-06 | -6.1 |
2015-05 | -6.2 |
2015-04 | -7.8 |
2015-03 | -9.8 |
2015-02 | -9.7 |
2015-01 | -11.4 |
2014-12 | -11.0 |
2014-11 | -10.3 |
2014-10 | -9.5 |
2014-09 | -10.6 |
2014-08 | -9.0 |
2014-07 | -9.2 |
2014-06 | -9.3 |
2014-05 | -9.9 |
2014-04 | -9.6 |
2014-03 | -10.8 |
2014-02 | -11.0 |
2014-01 | -8.4 |
2013-12 | -9.4 |
2013-11 | -8.5 |
2013-10 | -10.1 |
2013-09 | -10.4 |
2013-08 | -10.7 |
2013-07 | -12.3 |
2013-06 | -12.0 |
2013-05 | -12.3 |
2013-04 | -12.3 |
2013-03 | -12.0 |
2013-02 | -11.9 |
2013-01 | -9.8 |
2012-12 | -9.2 |
2012-11 | -9.6 |
2012-10 | -11.0 |
2012-09 | -7.6 |
2012-08 | -7.8 |
2012-07 | -4.3 |
2012-06 | -6.0 |
2012-05 | -5.6 |
2012-04 | -4.2 |
2012-03 | -0.7 |
2012-02 | -3.4 |
2012-01 | 0.5 |
2011-12 | -2.3 |
2011-11 | -4.3 |
2011-10 | -3.0 |
2011-09 | -1.6 |
2011-08 | -1.5 |
2011-07 | -0.3 |
2011-06 | 0.5 |
2011-05 | 5.1 |
2011-04 | 2.4 |
2011-03 | 3.5 |
2011-02 | 3.3 |
2011-01 | -0.1 |
2010-12 | 0.0 |
2010-11 | -1.1 |
2010-10 | -0.9 |
2010-09 | -3.1 |
2010-08 | -3.8 |
2010-07 | -7.7 |
2010-06 | -5.4 |
2010-05 | -5.7 |
2010-04 | -7.8 |
2010-03 | -7.5 |
2010-02 | -9.0 |
2010-01 | -8.5 |
2009-12 | -10.1 |
2009-11 | -10.1 |
2009-10 | -9.4 |
2009-09 | -12.4 |
2009-08 | -14.4 |
2009-07 | -18.5 |
2009-06 | -15.4 |
2009-05 | -17.8 |
2009-04 | -17.7 |
2009-03 | -17.1 |
2009-02 | -13.1 |
2009-01 | -13.1 |
2008-12 | -13.8 |
2008-11 | -9.6 |
2008-10 | -2.7 |
2008-09 | 0.3 |
2008-08 | 1.5 |
2008-07 | 3.4 |
2008-06 | 3.2 |
2008-05 | 3.4 |
2008-04 | 3.9 |
2008-03 | 2.6 |
2008-02 | 2.1 |
2008-01 | 2.2 |
2007-12 | 3.0 |
2007-11 | 2.7 |
2007-10 | 1.3 |
2007-09 | 2.3 |
2007-08 | 3.2 |
2007-07 | 3.4 |
2007-06 | 2.1 |
2007-05 | 2.9 |
2007-04 | 2.2 |
2007-03 | 1.5 |
2007-02 | 1.1 |
2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services

- Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has diminished and has moved away from its average. Conversely, the one on the expected workforce size over the next three months has increased again, above its own.
Besides, more than half of the business managers have reported difficulties in recruitment. This share has slightly diminished compared to July 2023 but remains far above its long-term average.
The quarterly balance of opinion on the expected investments for the next three months has decreased again and stands just below its average.
Concerning the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, a little more business managers have reported difficulties of demand only compared to July, but their share is well below its long-term average. Conversely, the proportion of business managers reporting difficulties of supply only has fallen again and is just above its average, which corresponds to its lowest level since the summer 2021.
The quarterly balance on the cash position has sharply decreased compared to July. After three quarters in a row of decline, it has moved back to its long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
Average* | Jul. 2023 | Aug. 2023 | Sep. 2023 | Oct. 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 102 | 101 | 100 |
General outlook | -7 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -8 |
Past activity | 2 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Expected activity | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Expected demand | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Past selling prices | -3 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Expected selling prices | -2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
Past employment | 2 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -4 |
Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | -2 |
Expected employment | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | 4 |
Cash position | -11 | -7 | -11 | ||
Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | 9 | 7 | 7 | ||
difficulties of supply only (in %) | 24 | 27 | 25 | ||
difficulties of demand only (in %) | 28 | 12 | 15 | ||
Difficulties in recruitment (in %) | 31 | 53 | 52 | ||
Expected investments | 3 | 4 | 2 | ||
Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Except in information-communication, the business climate has deteriorated in all service sub-sectors
In October 2023, the business climate indicator in road freight transport has edged down and has reached its lowest level since November 2020. The balances of opinion on the general business outlook and on the expected demand in particular have contributed to this fall.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has deteriorated and has moved below its average level for the first time since January 2022. In particular, the balances of opinion on the general business outlook, on the past workforce size and on the past and expected activity have retrenched and stand below their average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has declined and has moved below its long-term average for the first time since April 2021.
In administrative and support services, the business climate has retreated and has reached its long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the past and expected activity have diminished, as well as the one on the expected demand.
In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has diminished a bit, well below its average. The balances of opinion on the general business outlook and on the past activity have decreased but the one related to the expected demand has risen. All three remain well below their average.
Finally, the business climate indicator in information-communication has bounced back and stand above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the past and expected activity, on the expected demand and on the expected workforce size have sharply improved, above their average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Average* | Jul. 2023 | Aug. 2023 | Sep. 2023 | Oct. 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 94 | 93 | 96 | 92 |
General outlook | -18 | -28 | -28 | -27 | -32 |
Past activity | -5 | -20 | -30 | -21 | -29 |
Expected activity | -7 | -19 | -18 | -13 | -15 |
Expected demand | -9 | -27 | -26 | -15 | -31 |
Past employment | -5 | -6 | -3 | -9 | -9 |
Expected employment | -6 | 1 | -4 | -5 | -11 |
Accommodation and food service activities (8%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 103 | 101 | 98 |
General outlook | -13 | 12 | -4 | -10 | -17 |
Past activity | -7 | -12 | -14 | -10 | -18 |
Expected activity | -7 | -14 | -19 | 0 | -9 |
Expected demand | -9 | -2 | 3 | -15 | -13 |
Past employment | -5 | -12 | 0 | 3 | -7 |
Expected employment | -6 | -7 | -7 | -5 | -1 |
Information and communication (29%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 102 | 105 |
General outlook | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
Past activity | 8 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
Expected activity | 9 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 20 |
Expected demand | 9 | 21 | 26 | 11 | 15 |
Past employment | 6 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 10 |
Expected employment | 10 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
Real estate activities (10%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 85 | 87 | 86 |
General outlook | -4 | -12 | -16 | -13 | -15 |
Past activity | 6 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -8 |
Expected activity | 6 | 0 | -6 | -8 | -9 |
Expected demand | 1 | -5 | -7 | -7 | -5 |
Past employment | 3 | -4 | -9 | -8 | -4 |
Expected employment | 3 | -9 | -5 | 2 | 1 |
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 102 | 101 | 98 |
General outlook | -8 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -9 |
Past activity | -1 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -4 |
Expected activity | -2 | -2 | -3 | -5 | -8 |
Expected demand | -5 | -2 | -7 | -7 | -8 |
Past employment | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Expected employment | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 103 | 105 | 100 |
General outlook | -3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
Past activity | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 |
Expected activity | 5 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
Expected demand | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
Past employment | 7 | 3 | -2 | 0 | -4 |
Expected employment | 7 | 13 | -3 | 9 | 11 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of September 2023 has been revised downwards by one point (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 September and 16 October 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 September and 16 October 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.