Insee
Informations Rapides · 21 September 2023 · n° 237
Informations rapidesIn September 2023, the business climate has somewhat improved in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - September 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has somewhat rebounded. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to July and stands at 94. It thus remains above its long-term average (100). This improvement of the business climate in September is mainly the result of the rebound compared to July of the balances of opinion concerning the merchandise received from abroad and the ordering intentions.

Informations rapides
No 237
Paru le :Paru le21/09/2023
Prochaine parution le : 25/01/2024 at 08:45 - January 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has somewhat rebounded. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to July and stands at 94. It thus remains above its long-term average (100). This improvement of the business climate in September is mainly the result of the rebound compared to July of the balances of opinion concerning the merchandise received from abroad and the ordering intentions.

Composite indicator

Composite indicator
Composite indicator
2023-B5 93.8
2023-B4 92.0
2023-B3 93.6
2023-B2 97.9
2023-B1 97.0
2022-B6 99.9
2022-B5 95.5
2022-B4 100.3
2022-B3 100.4
2022-B2 104.4
2022-B1 115.9
2021-B6 114.5
2021-B5 109.8
2021-B4 112.3
2021-B3 110.2
2021-B2 99.2
2021-B1 96.2
2020-B6 86.8
2020-B5 90.7
2020-B4 78.1
2020-B3 66.4
2020-B2 97.0
2020-B1 104.9
2019-B6 105.9
2019-B5 106.0
2019-B4 105.0
2019-B3 107.3
2019-B2 105.6
2019-B1 100.7
2018-B6 103.4
2018-B5 103.4
2018-B4 101.3
2018-B3 104.7
2018-B2 109.6
2018-B1 108.4
2017-B6 110.6
2017-B5 108.3
2017-B4 108.6
2017-B3 104.5
2017-B2 102.8
2017-B1 104.9
2016-B6 98.0
2016-B5 97.3
2016-B4 102.9
2016-B3 101.7
2016-B2 99.5
2016-B1 102.4
2015-B6 101.6
2015-B5 99.3
2015-B4 101.9
2015-B3 100.8
2015-B2 96.2
2015-B1 95.6
2014-B6 95.2
2014-B5 90.7
2014-B4 96.0
2014-B3 97.7
2014-B2 97.9
2014-B1 97.0
2013-B6 97.7
2013-B5 96.9
2013-B4 87.5
2013-B3 87.6
2013-B2 88.2
2013-B1 88.9
2012-B6 89.0
2012-B5 90.8
2012-B4 94.7
2012-B3 92.7
2012-B2 99.3
2012-B1 95.3
2011-B6 95.9
2011-B5 100.0
2011-B4 105.8
2011-B3 107.2
2011-B2 108.2
2011-B1 106.0
2010-B6 104.5
2010-B5 105.0
2010-B4 100.3
2010-B3 94.6
2010-B2 85.0
2010-B1 85.1
2009-B6 77.9
2009-B5 76.4
2009-B4 70.9
2009-B3 68.6
2009-B2 67.2
2009-B1 79.1
2008-B6 83.9
2008-B5 94.2
2008-B4 96.6
2008-B3 101.4
2008-B2 106.6
2008-B1 107.3
2007-B6 108.8
2007-B5 111.5
2007-B4 107.5
2007-B3 110.4
2007-B2 111.6
2007-B1 108.0
2006-B6 110.1
2006-B5 106.9
2006-B4 107.3
2006-B3 101.9
2006-B2 99.2
2006-B1 103.6
2005-B6 99.4
2005-B5 94.8
2005-B4 96.0
2005-B3 92.4
2005-B2 97.4
2005-B1 100.6

Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.

The balances of opinion on ordering intentions and on the volume of merchandise received from abroad have rebounded

In September 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding ordering intentions has rebounded, after having reached in July its lowest level since 2020. It has rebounded in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment as well as in the “other specialised wholesale trade”. The balance related to the received merchandise from abroad has also rebounded while remaining below its long-term average.

The balances of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales, as a whole and abroad, are virtually stable, below their average.

The balance on the general business outlook is virtually stable since March 2023, below its long-term average.

Economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector

Balances of opinion in %, S.A.
Economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector (Balances of opinion in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Mar. 23 May 23 July 23 Sep. 23
Business climate 100 98 94 92 94
General business outlook -23 -28 -28 -29 -28
Sales -14 -17 -23 -22 -23
export sales -15 -18 -24 -25 -26
Received merchandise -9 -15 -16 -17 -16
received from abroad -10 -14 -19 -21 -17
Ordering intentions -15 -15 -18 -21 -18
ordering from abroad -15 -15 -24 -25 -19
Shipments abroad -15 -16 -22 -19 -17
Stocks 8 16 15 10 12
Past workforce -1 4 1 0 -2
Expected workforce -2 6 4 3 2
Cash position -9 -8 -11 -9 -9
Past selling prices 8 30 14 -3 12
Expected selling prices 15 28 7 4 9
  • (1) Average since July 1979.
  • Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade

The balance of opinion on the past selling prices has rebounded sharply

In September 2023, the balance of opinion on the past changes in the selling prices of wholesalers has rebounded sharply, after several months of decline, and has moved above its long-term average. The one related to the expected changes in prices has rebounded more mildly and has moved closer to its own.

Expected prices in wholesale trade

Expected prices in wholesale trade
Expected prices
2023-B5 9.0
2023-B4 3.6
2023-B3 6.7
2023-B2 27.6
2023-B1 38.0
2022-B6 40.6
2022-B5 41.0
2022-B4 42.7
2022-B3 48.5
2022-B2 47.4
2022-B1 37.0
2021-B6 39.7
2021-B5 33.6
2021-B4 32.2
2021-B3 26.2
2021-B2 18.6
2021-B1 10.5
2020-B6 -3.5
2020-B5 4.7
2020-B4 1.3
2020-B3 -4.2
2020-B2 -1.4
2020-B1 7.9
2019-B6 6.9
2019-B5 3.2
2019-B4 3.2
2019-B3 2.7
2019-B2 4.7
2019-B1 7.7
2018-B6 8.2
2018-B5 12.4
2018-B4 9.0
2018-B3 6.4
2018-B2 13.0
2018-B1 8.3
2017-B6 10.2
2017-B5 3.8
2017-B4 5.3
2017-B3 4.1
2017-B2 5.1
2017-B1 9.2
2016-B6 2.4
2016-B5 -2.8
2016-B4 0.1
2016-B3 -0.9
2016-B2 -3.4
2016-B1 -5.7
2015-B6 -1.4
2015-B5 -8.2
2015-B4 2.9
2015-B3 5.1
2015-B2 -0.5
2015-B1 -6.7
2014-B6 -10.7
2014-B5 -8.7
2014-B4 -4.2
2014-B3 -0.8
2014-B2 2.1
2014-B1 6.0
2013-B6 0.5
2013-B5 0.3
2013-B4 -3.9
2013-B3 -3.2
2013-B2 -2.2
2013-B1 5.1
2012-B6 5.5
2012-B5 11.3
2012-B4 8.9
2012-B3 6.0
2012-B2 11.7
2012-B1 11.0
2011-B6 14.2
2011-B5 6.2
2011-B4 11.9
2011-B3 19.8
2011-B2 24.6
2011-B1 22.9
2010-B6 8.7
2010-B5 11.5
2010-B4 8.6
2010-B3 5.1
2010-B2 0.2
2010-B1 -3.9
2009-B6 -7.2
2009-B5 -6.8
2009-B4 -11.9
2009-B3 -7.5
2009-B2 -12.5
2009-B1 -5.5
2008-B6 0.4
2008-B5 10.3
2008-B4 18.8
2008-B3 15.3
2008-B2 18.6
2008-B1 26.9
2007-B6 23.9
2007-B5 20.9
2007-B4 16.2
2007-B3 14.1
2007-B2 10.1
2007-B1 10.2

Expected prices in wholesale trade

  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.

Wholesalers are a little less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size

The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in workforce size have both diminished again: the former has moved below its average level while the latter remains above its own.

The balance of opinion on the stock levels has rebounded a little

The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has partially rebounded. It has increased in particular in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the one of information and communication equipment and in the “other specialised wholesale trade”.

Finally, the balance related to the cash position is stable, at the level of its long-term average.

Balances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Balances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Mar. 23 May 23 July 23 Sep. 23
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales -13 -19 -26 -23 -29
Export sales -16 -23 -45 -38 -41
Merchandise received from abroad -11 -25 -45 -32 -41
Ordering intentions -13 -22 -20 -27 -12
Current stocks 5 3 -4 0 6
Food products and beverages
Sales -15 -16 -22 -16 -23
Export sales -13 -25 -28 -22 -33
Merchandise received from abroad -13 -4 -10 -13 -14
Ordering intentions -11 -14 -14 -11 -14
Current stocks 4 11 18 12 6
Household goods
Sales -10 -8 -8 -13 -14
Export sales -11 -18 -14 -18 -18
Merchandise received from abroad -6 -21 -5 -13 -15
Ordering intentions -13 -11 -12 -11 -15
Current stocks 12 19 13 17 8
Information and communication equipment
Sales -8 -28 -28 -41 -12
Export sales -12 -26 -40 -39 -30
Merchandise received from abroad -7 -37 -48 -55 -26
Ordering intentions -10 -24 -25 -35 -14
Current stocks 8 24 7 -2 5
Other industrial capital goods
Sales -16 -12 -19 -25 -25
Export sales -21 -10 -22 -26 -24
Merchandise received from abroad -11 -6 -4 -14 -10
Ordering intentions -21 -11 -21 -25 -26
Current stocks 12 24 29 24 23
Other specialised wholesale trade
Sales -17 -21 -33 -31 -32
Export sales -18 -10 -17 -21 -21
Merchandise received from abroad -13 -3 -24 -20 -16
Ordering intentions -18 -13 -18 -30 -23
Current stocks 6 16 18 2 20
  • (1) Average since July 1979.
  • Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade

Revisions

The business climate in wholesale trade in July 2023 is unchanged (after rounding).

Further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 August and 18 September 2023.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.

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