Informations Rapides ·
21 September 2023 · n° 237
In September 2023, the business climate has somewhat improved in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - September 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has somewhat rebounded. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to July and stands at 94. It thus remains above its long-term average (100). This improvement of the business climate in September is mainly the result of the rebound compared to July of the balances of opinion concerning the merchandise received from abroad and the ordering intentions.
- The balances of opinion on ordering intentions and on the volume of merchandise received from abroad have rebounded
- The balance of opinion on the past selling prices has rebounded sharply
- Wholesalers are a little less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- The balance of opinion on the stock levels has rebounded a little
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has somewhat rebounded. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to July and stands at 94. It thus remains above its long-term average (100). This improvement of the business climate in September is mainly the result of the rebound compared to July of the balances of opinion concerning the merchandise received from abroad and the ordering intentions.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B5 | 93.8 |
| 2023-B4 | 92.0 |
| 2023-B3 | 93.6 |
| 2023-B2 | 97.9 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 99.9 |
| 2022-B5 | 95.5 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.3 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.4 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 115.9 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.5 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.8 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.3 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2020-B6 | 86.8 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.1 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.4 |
| 2020-B2 | 97.0 |
| 2020-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.0 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.6 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.7 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.6 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.4 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.6 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.3 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.6 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.5 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 98.0 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.7 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.5 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.4 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.6 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.3 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.8 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.2 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.7 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.9 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.5 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.6 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.7 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.2 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.2 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.0 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.5 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.0 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.3 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.6 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.0 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.9 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.4 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.9 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.6 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.1 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.9 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.2 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.6 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.4 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.8 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.5 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.5 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.0 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.1 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.9 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.4 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.4 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.6 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balances of opinion on ordering intentions and on the volume of merchandise received from abroad have rebounded
In September 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding ordering intentions has rebounded, after having reached in July its lowest level since 2020. It has rebounded in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment as well as in the “other specialised wholesale trade”. The balance related to the received merchandise from abroad has also rebounded while remaining below its long-term average.
The balances of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales, as a whole and abroad, are virtually stable, below their average.
The balance on the general business outlook is virtually stable since March 2023, below its long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | Mar. 23 | May 23 | July 23 | Sep. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 98 | 94 | 92 | 94 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -28 | -28 | -29 | -28 |
| Sales | -14 | -17 | -23 | -22 | -23 |
| export sales | -15 | -18 | -24 | -25 | -26 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -15 | -16 | -17 | -16 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -14 | -19 | -21 | -17 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -15 | -18 | -21 | -18 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -15 | -24 | -25 | -19 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -16 | -22 | -19 | -17 |
| Stocks | 8 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 12 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Cash position | -9 | -8 | -11 | -9 | -9 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 30 | 14 | -3 | 12 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balance of opinion on the past selling prices has rebounded sharply
In September 2023, the balance of opinion on the past changes in the selling prices of wholesalers has rebounded sharply, after several months of decline, and has moved above its long-term average. The one related to the expected changes in prices has rebounded more mildly and has moved closer to its own.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B5 | 9.0 |
| 2023-B4 | 3.6 |
| 2023-B3 | 6.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 27.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 38.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 40.6 |
| 2022-B5 | 41.0 |
| 2022-B4 | 42.7 |
| 2022-B3 | 48.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 47.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 37.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 39.7 |
| 2021-B5 | 33.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 26.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 10.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -3.5 |
| 2020-B5 | 4.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.3 |
| 2020-B3 | -4.2 |
| 2020-B2 | -1.4 |
| 2020-B1 | 7.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 2.7 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 7.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 8.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 12.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 9.0 |
| 2018-B3 | 6.4 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.3 |
| 2017-B6 | 10.2 |
| 2017-B5 | 3.8 |
| 2017-B4 | 5.3 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.1 |
| 2017-B1 | 9.2 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers are a little less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in workforce size have both diminished again: the former has moved below its average level while the latter remains above its own.
The balance of opinion on the stock levels has rebounded a little
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has partially rebounded. It has increased in particular in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the one of information and communication equipment and in the “other specialised wholesale trade”.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position is stable, at the level of its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | Mar. 23 | May 23 | July 23 | Sep. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -19 | -26 | -23 | -29 |
| Export sales | -16 | -23 | -45 | -38 | -41 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -25 | -45 | -32 | -41 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -22 | -20 | -27 | -12 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 6 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -16 | -22 | -16 | -23 |
| Export sales | -13 | -25 | -28 | -22 | -33 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -4 | -10 | -13 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -14 | -14 | -11 | -14 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -8 | -8 | -13 | -14 |
| Export sales | -11 | -18 | -14 | -18 | -18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -21 | -5 | -13 | -15 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -11 | -12 | -11 | -15 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 8 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -28 | -28 | -41 | -12 |
| Export sales | -12 | -26 | -40 | -39 | -30 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -37 | -48 | -55 | -26 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -24 | -25 | -35 | -14 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 24 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -12 | -19 | -25 | -25 |
| Export sales | -21 | -10 | -22 | -26 | -24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -6 | -4 | -14 | -10 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -11 | -21 | -25 | -26 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 23 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -21 | -33 | -31 | -32 |
| Export sales | -18 | -10 | -17 | -21 | -21 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -3 | -24 | -20 | -16 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -13 | -18 | -30 | -23 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in July 2023 is unchanged (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 August and 18 September 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 November 2023 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade