Informations Rapides ·
25 July 2023 · n° 188
In July 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing has
kept on degrading Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - July 2023
In July 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has clearly deteriorated, continuing its decline that has begun in July 2021. The balance of opinion regarding the evolution of the expected average price of new housings for sale has also strongly deteriorated again.
In July 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has clearly deteriorated, continuing its decline that has begun in July 2021. The balance of opinion regarding the evolution of the expected average price of new housings for sale has also strongly deteriorated again.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2023-Q3 | -50.8 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.2 |
| 2023-Q1 | -31.3 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The prospects for housing starts have kept on deteriorating
In July 2023, developers are again more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the demand addressed to them. The balance of opinion on the prospect for housing starts has dipped again. In detail, the balance of opinion regarding prospects of housing for rent has dropped sharply, dipping below its long term average, whereas the one associated with housing for sale has improved slightly while still remaining well below its long term average.
Developers’ opinions on the expected evolution of their unsold dwelling stock remain unchanged compared to April. The associated balance of opinion is stable at a level slightly above its long term average.
The balance of opinion on the average price of housing for sale has pursued its drop
In July 2023, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale has diminished sharply again and has joined back its long term average.
In the meantime, real estate developers are slightly more optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospect of evolution of the financial means dedicated to purchasing new housing for the next three months. The associated balance of opinion has rebounded slightly after a one year drop. It stands however way below its long term average.
However, fewer developers than in April have reported that the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling has increased over the past three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has kept on dropping but remains slightly above its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 22 | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -10 | -30 | -31 | -42 | -51 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | -20 | -20 | -30 | -33 |
| - for sale | -15 | -28 | -28 | -48 | -42 |
| - for rent | 1 | -8 | -8 | 3 | -17 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -23 | -20 | -7 | -7 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 49 | 37 | 29 | 8 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -6 | -1 | -5 | -14 |
| Financing capacity | -20 | -24 | -30 | -45 | -40 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 June 2022 and 20 July 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 October 2023 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 June 2022 and 20 July 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 24 October 2023 at 12:00 pm.