Informations Rapides · 20 July 2023 · n° 181

In July 2023, production bottlenecks have reduced, according to the business leaders in the manufacturing industry Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2023

In July 2023, business leaders in the manufacturing industry expect demand to be less dynamic over the next three months. They have also estimated that production bottlenecks have been reduced this quarter, although they remain at a high level. Finally, business leaders have confirmed the slowdown of selling prices in the industry in the last three months, and suggest that these prices could stabilise over the next three months.

In July 2023, the balance of opinion on the past change in overall demand is stable at its average level. The one on the past change in foreign demand has decreased slightly and remains above its average. However, the balances of opinion on the expected change over the next three months in demand, both global and foreign, have fallen sharply. Both have gone back below their respective average.

The share of companies at the limit of their production capacity has diminished in July 2023: 33% have deemed that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders, against 44% the previous quarter. While this proportion remains quite well above its average, it has reached its lowest level since April 2021. Likewise, more business leaders than three months ago have considered their production capacities sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months. The associated balance of opinion has improved again but remains at a low level for this series. The production capacity utilisation rate is stable: at 82% it remains just under its average level.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investment over the next three months has slightly decreased but remains above its average (calculated from the introduction of this question in the survey in October 2021).

In July 2023, the proportion of business leaders declaring encountering recruitment difficulties has fallen from 64% to 58%. This share, which has been falling since October 2022, remains well above its long-term average but has reached its lowest level since October 2021.

In July 2023, business leaders have reported, on average, that their selling prices have increased by 0.2% over the second quarter of 2023. For comparison, they had indicated a 1.7% increase in the first quarter. For the next three months, business leaders anticipate a stability in their selling prices (0.0%). This is the lowest forecast since April 2020.

The balance on the general prospects of change in hourly wages in the manufacturing industry has again clearly decreased and has gone back under its long-term average, reaching its lowest point since July 2021.

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has been deemed more deteriorated than in April: the associated balance of opinion has moved away from its average (calculated from the introduction of this question in the survey in October 2021).