Informations Rapides ·
22 June 2023 · n° 155
In June 2023, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - June 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2023, the business climate in services stands at the same level as in May, after three month of deterioration in a row. At 102, the indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2023, the business climate in services stands at the same level as in May, after three month of deterioration in a row. At 102, the indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 101.8 |
| 2023-05 | 101.7 |
| 2023-04 | 102.9 |
| 2023-03 | 104.7 |
| 2023-02 | 106.2 |
| 2023-01 | 104.8 |
| 2022-12 | 103.8 |
| 2022-11 | 104.2 |
| 2022-10 | 105.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.4 |
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.5 |
| 2022-06 | 107.5 |
| 2022-05 | 108.9 |
| 2022-04 | 108.0 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.2 |
| 2021-12 | 107.0 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.2 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.0 |
| 2021-03 | 93.3 |
| 2021-02 | 87.9 |
| 2021-01 | 90.9 |
| 2020-12 | 89.4 |
| 2020-11 | 77.0 |
| 2020-10 | 88.1 |
| 2020-09 | 93.8 |
| 2020-08 | 93.1 |
| 2020-07 | 88.3 |
| 2020-06 | 77.2 |
| 2020-05 | 50.3 |
| 2020-04 | 40.0 |
| 2020-03 | 92.3 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.2 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-04 | 105.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.7 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.7 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.0 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.5 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.0 |
| 2016-07 | 100.2 |
| 2016-06 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.2 |
| 2016-03 | 99.4 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.3 |
| 2015-04 | 93.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.3 |
| 2015-02 | 91.5 |
| 2015-01 | 91.2 |
| 2014-12 | 91.3 |
| 2014-11 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.6 |
| 2014-07 | 92.6 |
| 2014-06 | 92.3 |
| 2014-05 | 92.2 |
| 2014-04 | 93.3 |
| 2014-03 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.1 |
| 2014-01 | 92.3 |
| 2013-12 | 90.9 |
| 2013-11 | 92.4 |
| 2013-10 | 91.7 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-08 | 88.7 |
| 2013-07 | 86.7 |
| 2013-06 | 86.2 |
| 2013-05 | 85.0 |
| 2013-04 | 83.6 |
| 2013-03 | 84.4 |
| 2013-02 | 87.3 |
| 2013-01 | 88.4 |
| 2012-12 | 87.4 |
| 2012-11 | 85.8 |
| 2012-10 | 86.4 |
| 2012-09 | 87.5 |
| 2012-08 | 87.7 |
| 2012-07 | 89.8 |
| 2012-06 | 90.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.2 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-03 | 93.7 |
| 2012-02 | 92.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2011-12 | 94.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.3 |
| 2011-10 | 97.4 |
| 2011-09 | 98.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.0 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.8 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.5 |
| 2010-07 | 99.0 |
| 2010-06 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.0 |
| 2009-12 | 92.6 |
| 2009-11 | 92.1 |
| 2009-10 | 90.7 |
| 2009-09 | 87.6 |
| 2009-08 | 84.4 |
| 2009-07 | 81.8 |
| 2009-06 | 78.2 |
| 2009-05 | 73.6 |
| 2009-04 | 69.6 |
| 2009-03 | 69.4 |
| 2009-02 | 74.5 |
| 2009-01 | 75.7 |
| 2008-12 | 78.2 |
| 2008-11 | 81.3 |
| 2008-10 | 85.2 |
| 2008-09 | 93.7 |
| 2008-08 | 95.6 |
| 2008-07 | 97.1 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-05 | 104.5 |
| 2008-04 | 106.9 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.0 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.3 |
| 2007-05 | 112.6 |
| 2007-04 | 112.7 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.8 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.3 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 105.9 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances of opinion on the personal and general business outlook stand slightly above their average level
In June 2023, the business managers in services are more optimistic than in the previous month about their personal activity prospects: the balance of opinion on expected activity has rebounded and has moved above its long-term average. Conversely, the one on the general business outlook for the sector has decreased slightly and has got closer to its own. Similarly, the balance related to the expected demand has decreased a little and has moved below its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has decreased again.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months is stable and remains at its average level.
The balance on the recent change in selling prices remains stable whereas the one about their expected change has declined slightly. Both remain well above their long-term average.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 6.6 |
| 2023-05 | 7.6 |
| 2023-04 | 13.8 |
| 2023-03 | 13.7 |
| 2023-02 | 17.0 |
| 2023-01 | 19.8 |
| 2022-12 | 16.2 |
| 2022-11 | 12.9 |
| 2022-10 | 10.4 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.2 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.9 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.5 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.3 |
| 2013-04 | -12.3 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.6 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.2 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.7 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has rebounded sharply but remains below its average. The one on the expected workforce size over the next three months is stable, above its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Mar. 2023 | Apr. 2023 | May 2023 | June 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 103 | 102 | 102 |
| General outlook | -7 | -2 | -1 | -5 | -6 |
| Past activity | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | -1 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 7 |
| Past employment | 2 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 10 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has evolved in mixed ways depending on the sub-sectors
In June 2023, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has improved slightly and remains above its average level. In particular, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity have rebounded partially.
In road freight transport, the business climate has improved a bit but remains well below its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the expected demand and on the general and personal business outlook have rebounded but remain below their average.
In information-communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator is stable and remains above its average.
In administrative and support services, the business climate has deteriorated again and stands just above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the general business outlook and on the expected demand have decreased sharply.
Finally, in real estate activities, the business climate indicator has decreased again sharply and remains well below its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on past activity and on the general business outlook have decreased strongly and have moved away from their respective average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Average* | Mar. 2023 | Apr. 2023 | May 2023 | June 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 95 | 99 | 92 | 93 |
| General outlook | -18 | -22 | -16 | -27 | -23 |
| Past activity | -5 | -17 | -13 | -15 | -21 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -16 | -6 | -21 | -20 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -25 | -17 | -30 | -21 |
| Past employment | -5 | -3 | 0 | -9 | -9 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -5 | -3 | -2 | -9 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 115 | 106 | 108 |
| General outlook | -13 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| Past activity | -7 | 2 | 3 | -25 | -19 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -1 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 2 | 11 | -4 | -6 |
| Past employment | -5 | 6 | 1 | -16 | -1 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 8 | 19 | 9 | 17 |
| Information and communication (29%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 102 | 106 | 106 |
| General outlook | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Past activity | 8 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 23 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 8 | -3 | 18 | 13 |
| Past employment | 6 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 13 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 22 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
| Real estate activities (10%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 101 | 96 | 93 |
| General outlook | -4 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -12 |
| Past activity | 7 | 10 | 5 | 2 | -7 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 2 | -5 | -3 | -1 |
| Past employment | 3 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 101 | 101 |
| General outlook | -8 | -1 | -3 | -6 | -7 |
| Past activity | -1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -3 | -3 | -6 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 1 | -6 | -7 | -7 |
| Past employment | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 104 | 103 | 101 |
| General outlook | -3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | -1 |
| Past activity | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Past employment | 8 | -8 | -9 | -21 | -4 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 19 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of May 2023 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 May and 19 June 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 July 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 May and 19 June 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 July 2023 at 8:45 am.