Informations Rapides ·
25 May 2023 · n° 130
In May 2023, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - May 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated sharply. The composite indicator has lost four points compared to March 2023 and stands at 94. It has thus moved away from its long-term average (100). Most of the balances of opinion of the sector have deteriorated, in particular those concerning past sales and the volume of merchandise received from abroad.
- The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of past sales has deteriorated sharply
- The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has declined
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated strongly
- Wholesalers have cast a less favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
- Wholesalers still consider their stock levels to be above normal
- Updates
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated sharply. The composite indicator has lost four points compared to March 2023 and stands at 94. It has thus moved away from its long-term average (100). Most of the balances of opinion of the sector have deteriorated, in particular those concerning past sales and the volume of merchandise received from abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B3 | 93.5 |
| 2023-B2 | 98.4 |
| 2023-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2022-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B5 | 96.6 |
| 2022-B4 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.8 |
| 2022-B1 | 115.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.2 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.3 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.9 |
| 2021-B3 | 109.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 87.4 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.6 |
| 2020-B3 | 65.9 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.6 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2019-B3 | 106.9 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.8 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.1 |
| 2018-B3 | 103.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.2 |
| 2018-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.3 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.6 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.7 |
| 2017-B1 | 104.0 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.2 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.4 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.1 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.8 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.3 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.1 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.2 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.9 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.5 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.4 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.9 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.6 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.3 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.6 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.5 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.5 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.7 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.5 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.2 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.2 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.7 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.0 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.3 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.6 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of past sales has deteriorated sharply
In May 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad over the past two months has retreated and has moved away from its average. It has decreased strongly in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment as well as in “other specialised wholesale trade”. The balance of opinion related to the total received merchandise, from France as well as from abroad, has diminished again for its part and has moved away from its average.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales has sharply retreated and has moved away from its average. This also applies to the balance on the volume of past sales abroad, which has mainly decreased in the wholesale trade of food products and beverages.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | Nov. 22 | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | May 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 102 | 96 | 98 | 94 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -31 | -35 | -29 | -32 |
| Sales | -14 | -7 | -16 | -15 | -22 |
| export sales | -15 | -15 | -19 | -16 | -23 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -7 | -13 | -14 | -16 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -11 | -18 | -12 | -18 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -11 | -15 | -15 | -18 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -15 | -18 | -14 | -23 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -17 | -20 | -16 | -22 |
| Stocks | 8 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Cash position | -9 | -9 | -8 | -7 | -11 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 46 | 34 | 29 | 16 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 41 | 32 | 31 | 13 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has declined
In May 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions has declined and has moved below its average. The one related to ordering intentions from abroad has retreated markedly and has moved below its own.
The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has also retreated and has moved away from its long-term average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated strongly
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in selling prices of wholesalers have declined strongly. The first one has moved closer to its long-term average while the second one has moved below its own.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B3 | 12.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 30.5 |
| 2023-B1 | 32.3 |
| 2022-B6 | 41.4 |
| 2022-B5 | 40.2 |
| 2022-B4 | 44.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 55.0 |
| 2022-B2 | 50.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 34.1 |
| 2021-B6 | 38.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 30.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.1 |
| 2021-B3 | 29.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 20.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 7.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -4.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 1.6 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.2 |
| 2020-B3 | -1.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 0.3 |
| 2020-B1 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 7.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 1.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 4.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.6 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.6 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 8.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.6 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 2.0 |
| 2017-B4 | 3.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.4 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.7 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers have cast a less favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in workforce size have retreated but remain above their respective average levels.
Wholesalers still consider their stock levels to be above normal
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has slightly decreased after having reached in March its highest level since 1989. It has diminished in particular in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment where it has moved below its long-term average.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has sharply diminished and has moved below its average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | Nov. 22 | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | May 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -1 | -20 | -21 | -25 |
| Export sales | -16 | -23 | -16 | -25 | -41 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -25 | -36 | -25 | -47 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -14 | -19 | -23 | -25 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 4 | 10 | 3 | -4 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -16 | -26 | -14 | -24 |
| Export sales | -13 | -26 | -39 | -22 | -29 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -21 | -31 | -3 | -11 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -15 | -16 | -15 | -16 |
| Current stocks | 4 | -3 | 7 | 10 | 14 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -3 | -1 | -8 | -8 |
| Export sales | -11 | -3 | -8 | -14 | -17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -6 | -15 | -22 | -12 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -3 | -8 | -11 | -12 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 11 | 22 | 21 | 15 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -26 | -36 | -26 | -23 |
| Export sales | -12 | -49 | -24 | -26 | -42 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -45 | -30 | -32 | -43 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -20 | -22 | -22 | -24 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 43 | 35 | 23 | 6 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -10 | -7 | -12 | -20 |
| Export sales | -21 | -14 | -19 | -8 | -24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -10 | -9 | -6 | -2 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -16 | -24 | -15 | -23 |
| Current stocks | 11 | 27 | 20 | 22 | 27 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -1 | -14 | -21 | -33 |
| Export sales | -18 | -14 | -12 | -13 | -14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -7 | -6 | -7 | -22 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -9 | -12 | -14 | -20 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Updates
The business climate in wholesale trade in March 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 April and 22 May 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 July 2023 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade