Informations Rapides ·
25 April 2023 · n° 107
In April 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing has
degraded sharply Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - April 2023
In April 2023, the developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has deteriorated again, continuing the decline that has begun in January 2021. Real estate developers are also more and more pessimistic regarding the prospect of evolution for financial means.
In April 2023, the developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has deteriorated again, continuing the decline that has begun in January 2021. Real estate developers are also more and more pessimistic regarding the prospect of evolution for financial means.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2023-Q2 | -40.5 |
| 2023-Q1 | -31.3 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The prospects for housing starts have kept on degrading
In April 2023, the balance of opinion on the prospect of housing starts has dipped: after one year of almost uninterrupted decline, it has approached the lowest levels in this series. In detail, prospects of housing for sale have degraded strongly. The corresponding balance of opinion has moved away from its average. Conversely, the one regarding housing for rent has rebounded and has moved slightly above its average.
More developers than in January have reported an increase in their unsold dwelling stock. The associated balance of opinion has risen again and is now standing well above its long term average.
Prospects of evolution for financial means have also deteriorated
In April 2023, real estate developers are way more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospect of evolution of the financial means dedicated to purchasing new housing for the next three months. The associated balance of opinion has kept decreasing for one year. It stands way below its long term average.
In addition, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of new housing for sale has been diminishing for three consecutive quarters but remains above its long-term average.
Lastly, slightly fewer developers than in January have reported an increase in the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has dropped back while maintaining above its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Jul. 22 | Oct. 22 | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -10 | -21 | -30 | -31 | -41 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | -10 | -20 | -20 | -31 |
| - for sale | -15 | -14 | -28 | -28 | -49 |
| - for rent | 1 | -3 | -8 | -8 | 2 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -25 | -23 | -20 | -8 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 54 | 49 | 37 | 30 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -5 | -6 | -1 | -6 |
| Financing capacity | -20 | -15 | -24 | -30 | -46 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2023 and 20 April 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business survey. The statistics published are therefore less accurate than those from business surveys in other sectors. They are also more likely to be revised in the next publication.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 July 2023 at 12:00 pm
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 March 2023 and 20 April 2023. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business survey. The statistics published are therefore less accurate than those from business surveys in other sectors. They are also more likely to be revised in the next publication.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 July 2023 at 12:00 pm