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Informations Rapides · 20 April 2023 · n° 98
Informations rapidesIn April 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has deteriorated again Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has deteriorated for the second month in a row. At 101, the synthetic indicator has lost three points and is getting closer to its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on the expected change in production and on the level of the overall order-books have particularly contributed to this decline.

Informations rapides
No 98
Paru le :Paru le20/04/2023
Prochaine parution le : 24/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in April 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has deteriorated for the second month in a row. At 101, the synthetic indicator has lost three points and is getting closer to its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on the expected change in production and on the level of the overall order-books have particularly contributed to this decline.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-04 101.1
2023-03 103.5
2023-02 104.5
2023-01 102.9
2022-12 102.0
2022-11 101.0
2022-10 102.9
2022-09 101.5
2022-08 103.4
2022-07 105.6
2022-06 107.9
2022-05 106.3
2022-04 107.6
2022-03 107.4
2022-02 112.3
2022-01 112.8
2021-12 109.7
2021-11 109.4
2021-10 107.0
2021-09 106.4
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.7
2021-05 107.0
2021-04 103.4
2021-03 98.4
2021-02 98.0
2021-01 96.3
2020-12 95.1
2020-11 91.7
2020-10 93.9
2020-09 94.0
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.5
2020-06 77.2
2020-05 70.0
2020-04 66.5
2020-03 97.3
2020-02 100.9
2020-01 102.6
2019-12 99.3
2019-11 101.8
2019-10 99.4
2019-09 101.5
2019-08 102.0
2019-07 101.2
2019-06 101.7
2019-05 103.7
2019-04 101.2
2019-03 103.3
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.0
2018-10 104.2
2018-09 107.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.3
2018-06 109.6
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.4
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-01 113.8
2017-12 111.8
2017-11 111.5
2017-10 111.0
2017-09 110.9
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.0
2017-06 108.8
2017-05 108.7
2017-04 108.5
2017-03 105.5
2017-02 106.7
2017-01 105.9
2016-12 105.7
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.2
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.2
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-06 96.4
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.8
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.6
2013-05 91.9
2013-04 87.5
2013-03 90.4
2013-02 90.4
2013-01 89.7
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.5
2012-10 86.9
2012-09 92.5
2012-08 92.8
2012-07 90.9
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 94.7
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.6
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.0
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.3
2010-07 97.1
2010-06 95.6
2010-05 96.3
2010-04 94.9
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.0
2009-12 87.2
2009-11 87.3
2009-10 84.9
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.6
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 72.0
2009-04 70.2
2009-03 66.2
2009-02 68.2
2009-01 72.3
2008-12 73.1
2008-11 79.5
2008-10 86.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.4
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.4
2007-06 111.2
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.2
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.1
2006-09 108.0
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* janv.-23 févr.-23 mars-23 avr.-23
Business climate 100 103 105 104 101
Past production 5 11 16 10 10
Finished-goods inventory 12 14 18 13 22
Overall order books -18 -16 -14 -13 -17
Foreign order books -14 -12 -10 -9 -9
Past workforce size -8 14 12 13 9
Expected workforce size -10 12 12 16 11
Personal production expectations 6 14 14 10 5
General production expectations -7 -7 0 -1 -4
Expected trend in selling prices 4 33 29 28 13
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 38 32 33 31
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the personal prospects of production during the next three months has continued to decrease

In April 2023, the balance of opinion on personal prospects for the change in production has clearly decreased again. It has gone back just under its long-term average and stands at its lowest point since November 2020. The balance of opinion associated with the general production expectations across the industry has also deteriorated. The one on the past production is stable, above its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has distinctly rebounded and has moved away from its average.

The balance of opinion on the level of the overall order-books has folded back after two months of rise and has almost reached its average. The one on the foreign order-books is stable, above its average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices during the next three months has sharply diminished and has reached its lowest level since February 2021. The one related to the economic uncertainty felt by the business managers has decreased.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size have diminished but remain well superior to their own averages.

The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has pursued its decline. It amounts to 26% in April 2023, after reaching 45% in July 2022. The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage, also trended downward since July 2022, has slightly rebounded this month, at 19%. These shares remain well above their average. Finally, the share of companies declaring a lack of demand, sometimes in conjunction with supply difficulties, has pursued its rise initiated in April 2022. It amounts to 32% in April 2023 (of which 15% in conjunction with supply difficulties) compared to 16% a year earlier. It remains nevertheless lower than its long-term average (49%).

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 13 11 10 15
Sourcing difficulties 11 30 28 28 26
Workforce shortage 9 21 19 18 19
Difficulties of supply only 22 45 43 42 41
Difficulties of demand only 40 15 15 18 18
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

The business climate has degraded again in the manufacture of food products and beverages

In the manufacture of food products and beverages the business climate has clearly darkened in April 2023. The indicator, already under its average last month, has lost six points and has reached its lowest point since January 2021. It has been pulled down by the balances of opinion on the overall order-books and the three-months production prospects.

The business climate has also deteriorated in the “other industries” sector. The synthetic indicator has been particularly degraded in the rubber and plastic products sub-sector where it reaches its lowest level since June 2020, and to a lesser extent, in metallurgy and chemicals.

Conversely, the business climate remains very favourable in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods. It is stable and above its average in the manufacture of transport equipment.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-04 92.7 111.0 104.3 97.4
2023-03 98.8 111.4 104.4 99.0
2023-02 101.5 110.0 106.2 96.6
2023-01 98.1 111.2 104.1 96.7
2022-12 99.8 111.2 100.8 96.2
2022-11 104.4 110.0 102.4 95.5
2022-10 107.0 112.8 105.5 95.7
2022-09 106.4 110.2 99.3 97.9
2022-08 107.0 112.3 100.6 99.3
2022-07 107.2 111.8 106.2 101.3
2022-06 108.7 110.8 103.0 105.8
2022-05 105.4 110.3 102.2 104.4
2022-04 107.7 112.4 101.9 108.8
2022-03 110.6 111.4 100.6 108.0
2022-02 110.4 114.8 106.0 111.5
2022-01 110.0 116.0 106.2 110.6
2021-12 116.9 115.8 90.7 112.3
2021-11 115.4 115.4 96.5 113.3
2021-10 111.7 115.3 91.4 110.4
2021-09 109.3 114.9 88.9 112.2
2021-08 111.4 119.5 93.5 112.5
2021-07 114.6 114.9 92.8 114.1
2021-06 118.8 114.7 90.7 110.6
2021-05 115.1 111.5 90.9 109.7
2021-04 104.1 113.1 89.5 107.2
2021-03 100.3 106.4 84.6 104.1
2021-02 93.8 105.7 91.0 101.4
2021-01 89.3 104.5 88.5 100.5
2020-12 89.5 96.2 88.0 101.9
2020-11 92.3 91.6 89.7 94.7
2020-10 93.3 94.5 91.6 94.6
2020-09 102.2 91.2 92.3 92.3
2020-08 95.8 91.6 91.4 87.4
2020-07 88.9 85.0 80.2 81.1
2020-06 92.3 78.8 77.1 78.7
2020-05 89.9 75.9 75.4 73.8
2020-04 91.3 76.6 73.0 73.2
2020-03 106.8 97.8 96.0 97.2
2020-02 107.4 99.2 100.6 100.2
2020-01 107.3 100.5 106.2 99.3
2019-12 107.4 97.1 99.8 97.9
2019-11 103.6 97.5 105.7 100.9
2019-10 105.1 96.2 100.8 98.9
2019-09 107.6 99.1 101.5 101.2
2019-08 108.2 99.5 101.5 101.4
2019-07 104.3 102.4 99.5 100.2
2019-06 108.5 98.6 100.9 100.4
2019-05 111.6 103.8 102.8 101.9
2019-04 106.2 100.9 101.4 100.7
2019-03 106.0 100.5 103.0 101.3
2019-02 108.0 104.4 101.2 101.1
2019-01 107.3 103.0 103.0 102.0
2018-12 107.2 101.9 102.8 102.3
2018-11 109.2 101.6 104.3 102.7
2018-10 102.1 106.4 104.0 102.7
2018-09 106.9 106.8 105.5 104.6
2018-08 107.6 107.6 106.8 105.5
2018-07 107.4 107.6 106.4 106.2
2018-06 110.2 107.4 110.3 105.5
2018-05 107.7 110.8 108.6 107.4
2018-04 108.9 109.5 113.0 107.4
2018-03 108.5 109.6 111.8 109.2
2018-02 109.8 110.4 112.7 109.8
2018-01 110.9 112.0 112.7 110.8
2017-12 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.4
2017-11 112.2 109.2 109.5 110.9
2017-10 110.7 109.1 108.9 110.1
2017-09 107.0 106.9 109.8 108.3
2017-08 108.4 106.4 108.9 108.1
2017-07 108.5 108.5 108.7 106.6
2017-06 111.4 107.9 105.6 108.2
2017-05 105.6 108.5 105.9 106.9
2017-04 103.4 106.7 106.3 107.6
2017-03 103.8 104.4 105.9 104.6
2017-02 105.2 103.7 106.8 106.1
2017-01 103.5 102.2 107.2 105.2
2016-12 108.1 103.3 104.9 104.6
2016-11 107.5 99.6 102.6 101.2
2016-10 106.3 97.5 106.1 101.0
2016-09 108.6 98.4 105.6 100.2
2016-08 98.9 98.1 104.2 101.2
2016-07 104.2 97.6 105.5 101.4
2016-06 102.8 97.2 106.3 101.2
2016-05 103.1 97.6 106.4 103.6
2016-04 105.5 100.0 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.1 99.0 106.3 100.9
2016-02 99.9 100.5 109.4 99.7
2016-01 101.4 100.5 108.5 99.3
2015-12 99.4 98.0 108.1 101.4
2015-11 101.9 99.5 108.2 99.2
2015-10 104.1 98.2 108.2 99.6
2015-09 105.3 96.2 109.5 102.3
2015-08 102.9 97.4 108.2 101.2
2015-07 108.3 98.2 105.2 102.5
2015-06 104.7 97.1 105.6 100.6
2015-05 101.7 97.1 105.3 101.3
2015-04 104.2 96.6 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.3 94.1 105.6 99.9
2015-02 99.0 95.1 101.4 100.0
2015-01 102.9 93.5 102.0 99.5
2014-12 98.7 92.2 100.0 100.0
2014-11 95.7 92.2 100.4 99.5
2014-10 95.2 92.6 97.5 98.3
2014-09 94.1 92.2 101.2 97.0
2014-08 94.9 93.4 98.1 100.4
2014-07 96.6 89.5 99.5 98.9
2014-06 95.3 91.9 98.5 98.3
2014-05 97.7 93.8 98.6 99.2
2014-04 95.5 92.5 103.2 99.9
2014-03 99.5 92.8 101.1 102.2
2014-02 98.8 93.9 98.4 98.1
2014-01 99.1 91.4 102.8 98.4
2013-12 98.1 91.9 100.2 98.9
2013-11 97.9 92.8 102.3 98.4
2013-10 95.1 90.6 103.9 97.4
2013-09 94.5 90.2 97.9 96.9
2013-08 95.1 91.8 101.8 96.8
2013-07 91.9 89.8 99.0 94.7
2013-06 92.2 89.2 95.1 93.0
2013-05 91.0 89.7 95.1 91.6
2013-04 91.3 89.7 93.1 89.0
2013-03 93.6 89.0 94.1 91.1
2013-02 97.5 88.8 94.6 90.1
2013-01 97.1 87.8 92.6 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.7 92.5 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.3 93.0 92.1
2012-10 90.6 85.9 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.3 90.9 97.3 93.4
2012-08 93.2 90.3 95.5 93.3
2012-07 94.1 90.7 95.3 92.1
2012-06 94.5 91.0 95.9 93.5
2012-05 93.0 94.6 95.2 95.6
2012-04 98.6 96.0 94.3 97.5
2012-03 101.9 96.5 103.2 96.9
2012-02 99.9 95.8 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.3 95.9 95.1 93.9
2011-12 97.8 96.1 100.3 94.3
2011-11 101.6 95.7 102.5 94.0
2011-10 104.0 98.0 100.5 96.2
2011-09 101.4 99.3 99.1 97.9
2011-08 103.1 100.4 102.2 100.1
2011-07 111.0 102.5 104.2 104.6
2011-06 108.1 104.4 109.8 108.5
2011-05 109.4 103.4 105.6 107.3
2011-04 108.6 104.8 106.2 109.6
2011-03 106.3 106.6 106.6 109.4
2011-02 107.1 102.5 100.0 108.1
2011-01 108.8 104.3 105.5 104.9

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) févr.-23 mars-23 avr.-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 101 99 93
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 110 111 111
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 112 118 115
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 100 103 102
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 112 110 111
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 106 104 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 104 100 101
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 104 104 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 97 99 97
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 106 114 113
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 88 91 91
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 90 92 90
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 95 98 90
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 94 99 96
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 107 108 107
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Updates

The business climate in manufacturing industry of March 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 March and 17 April 2023.

Next issue: 25 May 2023 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 March and 17 April 2023.

Next issue: 25 May 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:

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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

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