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Informations Rapides · 28 March 2023 · n° 77
Informations rapidesIn March 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly folded Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - March 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has folded a little, after three months of slight increase. At 104, the synthetic indicator has lost one point but is nevertheless above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past and future change in production explain the decline of the synthetic indicator.

Informations rapides
No 77
Paru le :Paru le28/03/2023
Prochaine parution le : 25/07/2024 at 08:45 - July 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has folded a little, after three months of slight increase. At 104, the synthetic indicator has lost one point but is nevertheless above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past and future change in production explain the decline of the synthetic indicator.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-03 103.9
2023-02 104.5
2023-01 102.9
2022-12 102.0
2022-11 101.0
2022-10 102.9
2022-09 101.5
2022-08 103.4
2022-07 105.6
2022-06 107.9
2022-05 106.3
2022-04 107.6
2022-03 107.4
2022-02 112.3
2022-01 112.8
2021-12 109.7
2021-11 109.4
2021-10 106.9
2021-09 106.4
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.7
2021-05 107.0
2021-04 103.4
2021-03 98.4
2021-02 98.0
2021-01 96.3
2020-12 95.1
2020-11 91.7
2020-10 93.9
2020-09 94.0
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.5
2020-06 77.2
2020-05 70.0
2020-04 66.5
2020-03 97.3
2020-02 100.9
2020-01 102.6
2019-12 99.3
2019-11 101.8
2019-10 99.4
2019-09 101.5
2019-08 102.0
2019-07 101.2
2019-06 101.7
2019-05 103.7
2019-04 101.2
2019-03 103.3
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.4
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.0
2018-10 104.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.3
2018-06 109.6
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.4
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-01 113.7
2017-12 111.8
2017-11 111.5
2017-10 111.0
2017-09 110.9
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.0
2017-06 108.8
2017-05 108.7
2017-04 108.5
2017-03 105.5
2017-02 106.7
2017-01 105.9
2016-12 105.7
2016-11 102.0
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.2
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.2
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-06 96.4
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.8
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.6
2013-05 91.9
2013-04 87.5
2013-03 90.4
2013-02 90.4
2013-01 89.7
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.5
2012-10 86.9
2012-09 92.6
2012-08 92.8
2012-07 90.9
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 94.7
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.6
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.0
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.3
2010-07 97.1
2010-06 95.6
2010-05 96.4
2010-04 94.9
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.0
2009-12 87.2
2009-11 87.3
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.1
2009-06 74.6
2009-05 72.0
2009-04 70.3
2009-03 66.3
2009-02 68.2
2009-01 72.3
2008-12 73.1
2008-11 79.6
2008-10 86.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-02 110.2
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.4
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.4
2007-06 111.2
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.2
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.1
2006-09 108.0
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23
Composite indicator 100 102 103 105 104
Past production 5 8 11 16 10
Finished-goods inventory 12 25 14 18 13
Overall order books -18 -15 -16 -14 -12
Foreign order books -14 -15 -12 -10 -8
Past workforce size -9 13 14 12 12
Expected workforce size -10 14 12 12 15
Personal production expectations 6 16 14 14 11
General production expectations -7 -6 -7 0 -1
Expected trend in selling prices 4 47 33 29 29
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 40 38 32 34
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the past change in production has shrunk and the one on the expected change in production has continued its decline

In March 2023, the balance of opinion on the past change in production has shrunk after three consecutive months of rise. The one on the personal prospects of production for the next three months has also diminished and has reached its lowest level since September 2022. Both of them remain above their average. The balance of opinion associated with the general production expectations is almost stable and remains above its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has decreased and is just above its average.

The balances of opinion on the level of order-books, overall as well as foreign, have grown for the second and third months respectively and have moved away from their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices during the next three months is stable at a high level. The one related to the economic uncertainty felt by the business managers has rebounded.

The balances of opinion associated with the past and expected change in the workforce size remain to remarkably high levels. The one related to the expected change in the workforce size has even reached its highest level since the beginning of this series (January 2003).

The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has continued to surge back. It amounts to 27% in March 2023, after having reached 45% in July 2022. Likewise, the share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has diminished, to 18%. These proportions remain however well above their average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 12 13 11 10
Sourcing difficulties 11 32 30 28 27
Workforce shortage 9 20 21 19 18
Difficulties of supply only 22 47 45 43 44
Difficulties of demand only 40 15 15 15 17
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

The indicator of the business climate has improved in the “other industries” while it has shrunk in the manufacture of food products and beverages

In the manufacture of food products and beverages the climate has degraded in March 2023: the synthetic indicator has gone back under its average. It has been notably pulled down by the balance of opinion on the change in production over the last three months, which has reached its lowest level since September 2022.

The business climate remains favourable in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods. In particular, in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, the balance of opinion on the expected change in production is at its highest since 2000.

The business climate is stable in the manufacture of transport equipment. It has deteriorated in the manufacture of motor vehicles but remains above its average. In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the climate has slightly improved and remains above its own. The balance on the past production has reached a record level since the beginning of this series (1990).

Finally, the business climate has improved in the so-called “other industries” sector and is just below its average. The indicator has increased in all sub-sectors, in particular in the textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry, as well as in the manufacture of metallurgy and other metal products. In the most energy-intensive "other industries" sub-sectors (metallurgy, chemicals) the indicators remained below their average.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-03 98.6 110.9 105.6 98.7
2023-02 101.5 110.1 106.2 96.6
2023-01 98.1 111.2 104.1 96.7
2022-12 99.8 111.3 100.8 96.2
2022-11 104.3 110.0 102.4 95.5
2022-10 107.0 112.9 105.4 95.7
2022-09 106.4 110.2 99.3 97.9
2022-08 107.0 112.4 100.6 99.2
2022-07 107.1 111.8 106.2 101.3
2022-06 108.6 110.8 103.0 105.8
2022-05 105.4 110.4 102.3 104.4
2022-04 107.7 112.5 101.9 108.8
2022-03 110.6 111.5 100.6 108.0
2022-02 110.4 114.9 106.0 111.5
2022-01 110.0 116.0 106.2 110.6
2021-12 116.9 115.8 90.7 112.3
2021-11 115.4 115.4 96.5 113.3
2021-10 111.6 115.4 91.4 110.3
2021-09 109.2 115.0 88.9 112.2
2021-08 111.3 119.5 93.5 112.5
2021-07 114.5 114.9 92.9 114.1
2021-06 118.8 114.8 90.7 110.6
2021-05 115.1 111.5 91.0 109.7
2021-04 104.1 113.2 89.5 107.2
2021-03 100.3 106.5 84.6 104.1
2021-02 93.8 105.7 91.0 101.4
2021-01 89.3 104.5 88.5 100.5
2020-12 89.5 96.2 88.0 101.9
2020-11 92.2 91.6 89.7 94.7
2020-10 93.3 94.5 91.7 94.6
2020-09 102.2 91.2 92.3 92.3
2020-08 95.8 91.6 91.5 87.4
2020-07 88.9 85.0 80.3 81.1
2020-06 92.3 78.8 77.1 78.7
2020-05 89.9 75.9 75.5 73.8
2020-04 91.3 76.7 73.1 73.2
2020-03 106.8 97.8 96.0 97.2
2020-02 107.4 99.2 100.6 100.2
2020-01 107.3 100.6 106.2 99.3
2019-12 107.3 97.1 99.8 97.9
2019-11 103.6 97.6 105.7 100.9
2019-10 105.1 96.2 100.8 98.9
2019-09 107.5 99.2 101.5 101.2
2019-08 108.2 99.5 101.5 101.4
2019-07 104.3 102.5 99.5 100.2
2019-06 108.5 98.6 101.0 100.4
2019-05 111.5 103.9 102.8 101.9
2019-04 106.2 101.0 101.4 100.7
2019-03 106.0 100.5 103.0 101.3
2019-02 108.0 104.4 101.2 101.1
2019-01 107.3 103.0 103.0 101.9
2018-12 107.2 101.9 102.8 102.3
2018-11 109.2 101.6 104.3 102.7
2018-10 102.0 106.4 104.0 102.7
2018-09 106.8 106.8 105.5 104.6
2018-08 107.5 107.6 106.8 105.5
2018-07 107.4 107.6 106.4 106.2
2018-06 110.1 107.4 110.3 105.4
2018-05 107.7 110.8 108.6 107.4
2018-04 108.9 109.6 112.9 107.4
2018-03 108.5 109.6 111.8 109.2
2018-02 109.8 110.4 112.7 109.8
2018-01 110.9 112.1 112.7 110.8
2017-12 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.4
2017-11 112.2 109.2 109.5 110.9
2017-10 110.7 109.1 108.9 110.1
2017-09 107.0 107.0 109.8 108.3
2017-08 108.4 106.4 108.8 108.1
2017-07 108.4 108.5 108.7 106.5
2017-06 111.4 107.9 105.6 108.2
2017-05 105.6 108.5 105.9 106.9
2017-04 103.4 106.7 106.4 107.6
2017-03 103.8 104.5 105.9 104.6
2017-02 105.2 103.7 106.8 106.0
2017-01 103.5 102.2 107.2 105.2
2016-12 108.1 103.4 104.9 104.6
2016-11 107.5 99.7 102.6 101.2
2016-10 106.3 97.5 106.1 101.0
2016-09 108.6 98.4 105.6 100.2
2016-08 98.9 98.1 104.2 101.1
2016-07 104.1 97.7 105.5 101.4
2016-06 102.7 97.2 106.3 101.2
2016-05 103.1 97.6 106.4 103.6
2016-04 105.5 100.0 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.1 99.0 106.3 100.9
2016-02 99.9 100.5 109.4 99.6
2016-01 101.3 100.5 108.5 99.3
2015-12 99.4 98.0 108.1 101.4
2015-11 101.9 99.6 108.2 99.2
2015-10 104.0 98.2 108.1 99.6
2015-09 105.3 96.2 109.5 102.3
2015-08 102.8 97.4 108.2 101.2
2015-07 108.2 98.3 105.2 102.5
2015-06 104.7 97.1 105.6 100.6
2015-05 101.7 97.1 105.3 101.3
2015-04 104.2 96.6 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.3 94.1 105.6 99.9
2015-02 99.0 95.2 101.4 100.0
2015-01 102.9 93.5 102.0 99.5
2014-12 98.7 92.3 100.0 100.0
2014-11 95.7 92.2 100.4 99.5
2014-10 95.2 92.6 97.5 98.3
2014-09 94.0 92.2 101.2 97.0
2014-08 94.9 93.4 98.2 100.4
2014-07 96.6 89.5 99.5 98.9
2014-06 95.2 91.9 98.5 98.3
2014-05 97.7 93.8 98.6 99.2
2014-04 95.4 92.5 103.2 99.9
2014-03 99.5 92.8 101.1 102.1
2014-02 98.7 93.9 98.4 98.0
2014-01 99.0 91.4 102.8 98.4
2013-12 98.0 91.9 100.3 98.9
2013-11 97.8 92.8 102.3 98.4
2013-10 95.0 90.6 104.0 97.4
2013-09 94.5 90.2 97.9 96.9
2013-08 95.1 91.9 101.8 96.8
2013-07 91.9 89.8 99.0 94.7
2013-06 92.2 89.2 95.1 93.0
2013-05 91.0 89.7 95.2 91.6
2013-04 91.3 89.8 93.1 89.0
2013-03 93.6 89.0 94.1 91.1
2013-02 97.5 88.8 94.6 90.1
2013-01 97.1 87.8 92.7 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.8 92.5 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.3 93.0 92.1
2012-10 90.6 86.0 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.2 90.9 97.3 93.4
2012-08 93.2 90.3 95.5 93.3
2012-07 94.1 90.7 95.4 92.1
2012-06 94.5 91.0 95.9 93.5
2012-05 93.0 94.6 95.2 95.6
2012-04 98.5 96.0 94.3 97.5
2012-03 101.9 96.5 103.3 96.9
2012-02 99.9 95.9 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.2 95.9 95.2 93.9
2011-12 97.8 96.1 100.3 94.3
2011-11 101.6 95.7 102.5 94.0
2011-10 104.0 98.0 100.5 96.2
2011-09 101.4 99.3 99.1 97.9
2011-08 103.1 100.4 102.2 100.1
2011-07 111.0 102.6 104.2 104.6
2011-06 108.1 104.5 109.8 108.5
2011-05 109.4 103.4 105.6 107.3
2011-04 108.6 104.8 106.2 109.6
2011-03 106.3 106.6 106.6 109.3
2011-02 107.1 102.5 100.0 108.1
2011-01 108.8 104.3 105.5 104.9

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 98 101 99
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 111 110 111
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 116 112 117
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 100 100 101
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 113 112 110
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 104 106 106
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 100 104 101
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 105 104 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 97 97 99
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 103 106 114
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 88 88 91
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 90 90 91
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 95 95 98
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 96 94 99
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 107 107 107
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Updates

The business climate in manufacturing industry of February 2023 has been revised upwards by one point, due to the inclusion of late responses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 24 February 2023 and 22 March 2023.

Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 24 February 2023 and 22 March 2023.

Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: