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Informations Rapides · 24 January 2023 · n° 16
Informations rapidesIn January 2023, manufacturers have considered the demand less dynamic than in October Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2023

In January 2023, business leaders have estimated that the demand in industrial products is less dynamic, both in the recent past or in the three-month prospects. A lot of them are still considering to be at the limit of their production capacities, but their expectations about the change of their investments in the next three months appear lower than in October. Expectations for three-month increases in selling prices remain strong even if they have slowed down a little these last months. Hiring difficulties in the industry remain intense and the balance of opinion on the general prospects of change in hourly wages is stable compared to October, at its highest level since 2001.

Informations rapides
No 16
Paru le :Paru le24/01/2023
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
Warning

Every three months (in January, April, July and October), the questionnaire of the monthly business survey in the goods-producing industries is enhanced by several questions completing the usual monthly questioning. Answers to these questions are therefore compared to those of three months ago and not to the results of last month, unlike the information presented in the other Informations Rapides on the business surveys.

In January 2023, business leaders have estimated that the demand in industrial products is less dynamic, both in the recent past or in the three-month prospects. A lot of them are still considering to be at the limit of their production capacities, but their expectations about the change of their investments in the next three months appear lower than in October. Expectations for three-month increases in selling prices remain strong even if they have slowed down a little these last months. Hiring difficulties in the industry remain intense and the balance of opinion on the general prospects of change in hourly wages is stable compared to October, at its highest level since 2001.

Demand in industrial products have been deemed less dynamic than three months ago

Business leaders’ opinion concerning the change in overall demand as well as foreign demand has deteriorated in January 2023. This movement concerns both the demand addressed over the last three months and that anticipated for the next three months. Yet, the corresponding balances of opinion remain above their respective averages, except that on expected foreign demand, which has reached its own.

Production bottlenecks remain significant

Industrial companies at the limit of their production capacity remain numerous: 45% have deemed that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders. This share has slightly decreased compared to October 2022 when the highest point of this series had been reached since it exists (1976). Moreover, only a few business leaders still consider their production capacities sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months. The associated balance of opinion remains at a very low level. The production capacity utilisation rate is almost stable: at 81% it lies under its average level by a few.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investment over the next three months introduced in this survey in October 2021, has clearly declined after three quarters of growth and is under its average.

Industrialists’ opinion: demand and production factors

Balances of opinion, in % SA
Industrialists’ opinion: demand and production factors (Balances of opinion, in % SA)
Manufacturing industry Average* Avr. 22 Juil. 22 Oct. 22 Jan. 23
Overall demand
Past change 1 14 5 13 5
Expected change 2 -2 7 7 4
Foreign demand
Past change 2 11 10 16 5
Expected change 4 0 16 10 4
Production factors
Production bottlenecks (in %) 24 44 42 49 45
Assessment of productive capacity 13 -2 0 -7 -6
Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) 83 82 82 81 81
Expected change in investments 22 20 27 34 13
  • * : Long-term average since 1976, expect for the question on the expected change in investments (since 2021).
  • The results of the latest survey are preliminary.
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

Hiring difficulties are still high

In January 2023, hiring difficulties are still high. 64% of the business leaders have declared experiencing it, a slightly lower share than in October 2022, but close to the highest level reached by the series last July (67%).

The rise of selling prices should remain sustained over the next three months

Business leaders have considered that their selling prices increased by 1.3% on average in the last quarter of 2022, a rise less pronounced than in the three first quarters of 2022. However, they anticipate a more marked rise (+1.9%) over the next three months.

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has been deemed a little bit better than in October, when the associated balance of opinion had reached its lowest level since the series was published (October 2021).

The balance on the general prospects of change in hourly wages in industry is stable, after having increased without a break since April 2021. It lies at its highest level since 2001.

Industrialists’ opinion: employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices

Balance of opinion, in % SA
Industrialists’ opinion: employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices (Balance of opinion, in % SA)
Manufacturing industry Average* Avr. 22 Juil. 22 Oct. 22 Jan. 23
Workforce size
Hiring difficulties (in %) 31 62 67 66 64
General wages expectations -38 -15 -9 -2 -2
Selling prices** and cash-flow
Past change in selling prices (in %) 0.2 3.9 3.4 1.4 1.3
Expected change in selling prices (in %) 0.2 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.9
Cash-flow problems -5 -9 -6 -11 -8
  • * : Long-term average since 1991, except for workforce change (since 1976) and for competitive position by market (since 1997).
  • ** : For the changes in selling-prices, a quantitative question is asked quarterly in the business survey, in addition to the qualitative question asked monthly.
  • The results of the latest survey are preliminary
  • Source : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

For further information

The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 24 January 2023, especially as regards demand and production factors.

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from 28 December 2022 to 18 January 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45

Pour en savoir plus

The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 24 January 2023, especially as regards demand and production factors.

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from 28 December 2022 to 18 January 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45

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