Informations Rapides · 24 January 2023 · n° 16

In January 2023, manufacturers have considered the demand less dynamic than in October Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2023

In January 2023, business leaders have estimated that the demand in industrial products is less dynamic, both in the recent past or in the three-month prospects. A lot of them are still considering to be at the limit of their production capacities, but their expectations about the change of their investments in the next three months appear lower than in October. Expectations for three-month increases in selling prices remain strong even if they have slowed down a little these last months. Hiring difficulties in the industry remain intense and the balance of opinion on the general prospects of change in hourly wages is stable compared to October, at its highest level since 2001.

Business leaders’ opinion concerning the change in overall demand as well as foreign demand has deteriorated in January 2023. This movement concerns both the demand addressed over the last three months and that anticipated for the next three months. Yet, the corresponding balances of opinion remain above their respective averages, except that on expected foreign demand, which has reached its own.

Industrial companies at the limit of their production capacity remain numerous: 45% have deemed that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders. This share has slightly decreased compared to October 2022 when the highest point of this series had been reached since it exists (1976). Moreover, only a few business leaders still consider their production capacities sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months. The associated balance of opinion remains at a very low level. The production capacity utilisation rate is almost stable: at 81% it lies under its average level by a few.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investment over the next three months introduced in this survey in October 2021, has clearly declined after three quarters of growth and is under its average.

In January 2023, hiring difficulties are still high. 64% of the business leaders have declared experiencing it, a slightly lower share than in October 2022, but close to the highest level reached by the series last July (67%).

Business leaders have considered that their selling prices increased by 1.3% on average in the last quarter of 2022, a rise less pronounced than in the three first quarters of 2022. However, they anticipate a more marked rise (+1.9%) over the next three months.

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has been deemed a little bit better than in October, when the associated balance of opinion had reached its lowest level since the series was published (October 2021).

The balance on the general prospects of change in hourly wages in industry is stable, after having increased without a break since April 2021. It lies at its highest level since 2001.