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Informations Rapides · 24 January 2023 · n° 15
Informations rapidesIn January 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly improved Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has slightly improved for the second month in a row. At 103, the synthetic indicator is above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the change in the past production and on the foreign order books have contributed to the rise of the synthetic indicator.

Informations rapides
No 15
Paru le :Paru le24/01/2023
Prochaine parution le : 20/09/2024 at 08:45 - September 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in January 2023, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has slightly improved for the second month in a row. At 103, the synthetic indicator is above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the change in the past production and on the foreign order books have contributed to the rise of the synthetic indicator.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2023-01 103.1
2022-12 102.1
2022-11 101.0
2022-10 102.9
2022-09 101.5
2022-08 103.4
2022-07 105.6
2022-06 107.9
2022-05 106.3
2022-04 107.6
2022-03 107.4
2022-02 112.3
2022-01 112.8
2021-12 109.7
2021-11 109.4
2021-10 107.0
2021-09 106.4
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.7
2021-05 107.0
2021-04 103.4
2021-03 98.4
2021-02 98.0
2021-01 96.3
2020-12 95.2
2020-11 91.7
2020-10 94.0
2020-09 94.0
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.5
2020-06 77.2
2020-05 70.1
2020-04 66.6
2020-03 97.3
2020-02 100.9
2020-01 102.6
2019-12 99.3
2019-11 101.8
2019-10 99.4
2019-09 101.5
2019-08 102.0
2019-07 101.2
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.7
2019-04 101.2
2019-03 103.3
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.0
2018-10 104.2
2018-09 107.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.3
2018-06 109.6
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.4
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-01 113.7
2017-12 111.8
2017-11 111.5
2017-10 111.0
2017-09 110.9
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.0
2017-06 108.8
2017-05 108.7
2017-04 108.5
2017-03 105.5
2017-02 106.7
2017-01 105.9
2016-12 105.7
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.2
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.5
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.7
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.2
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.0
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.8
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.6
2013-05 91.9
2013-04 87.6
2013-03 90.5
2013-02 90.4
2013-01 89.7
2012-12 90.8
2012-11 91.6
2012-10 87.0
2012-09 92.6
2012-08 92.8
2012-07 91.0
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 94.7
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 97.5
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.6
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.0
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.3
2010-07 97.1
2010-06 95.6
2010-05 96.4
2010-04 94.9
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.0
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.8
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.2
2009-06 74.7
2009-05 72.1
2009-04 70.3
2009-03 66.3
2009-02 68.3
2009-01 72.4
2008-12 73.1
2008-11 79.6
2008-10 86.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-02 110.2
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.4
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.4
2007-06 111.2
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.2
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.1
2006-09 108.0
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 101.0
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.5
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23
Composite indicator 100 103 101 102 103
Past production 5 6 0 8 11
Finished-goods inventory 12 20 27 25 14
Overall order books -18 -12 -16 -15 -17
Foreign order books -14 -8 -10 -15 -12
Past workforce size -9 8 10 13 13
Expected workforce size -10 14 12 14 12
Personal production expectations 6 12 17 16 17
General production expectations -7 -8 -10 -6 -7
Expected trend in selling prices 4 31 39 47 33
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 37 36 40 38
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balance of opinion on the change in the past production has grown again

In January 2023, the balance of opinion on the change of production over the last three months has grown for the second month in a row and has moved away from its long-term average. The one on the change in production over the next three months remains well above its own. The balance related to the general prospects of production has slightly diminished and has reached its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has strongly decreased after having reached last November its highest level since 2008. Yet, it remains superior to its average.

The balance of opinion on the overall order books has slightly decreased and has reached its lowest level since March 2021, even if it remains slightly above its long-term average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on the foreign order books has increased somewhat, after two months of decline, and is back above its average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices during the next three months has distinctly declined after a two month rise but remains high. The balance of opinion on economic uncertainty felt by the business managers has barely diminished and remains high.

The balances of opinion related to the workforce size remain above their respective averages. Nevertheless, the one related to the expected change in workforce size has slightly shrunk.

The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production has reduced again. It stands at 30% in January 2023, after having reached 45% in July 2022. Conversely, the share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage, already well above its average, has increased this month.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production

Share of companies, in % of answers, CVS
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production (Share of companies, in % of answers, CVS)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 10 10 12 14
Sourcing difficulties 10 37 32 32 30
Workforce shortage 9 23 20 20 22
Difficulties of supply only 22 53 49 47 45
Difficulties of demand only 40 13 15 15 16
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

The business climate has improved in particular in the manufacture of transport equipment

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of transport equipment branch has rebounded in January 2023, after two months of decline, and moves away from its average. This improvement concerns the industry of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers as well as that of the "other transport equipment". In particular, order books have been considered to be healthier.

The business climate has improved in the so-called “other industries” sector, but sub-sectors have contrasted evolutions. Thus, the indicator has clearly increased in textiles, but more moderately in metallurgy or chemicals, sectors in which it remains below its long-term average. It has decreased in the wood, paper and printing industry as well as in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products.

Finally, the business climate has darkened slightly in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods: in this sector, the balance of opinion on past production has fallen for the second month in a row.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2023-01 99.2 110.2 104.1 96.9
2022-12 99.8 111.3 100.8 96.2
2022-11 104.3 110.1 102.4 95.5
2022-10 107.0 112.9 105.5 95.7
2022-09 106.4 110.3 99.3 97.9
2022-08 107.0 112.4 100.6 99.2
2022-07 107.1 111.8 106.2 101.3
2022-06 108.6 110.9 103.1 105.8
2022-05 105.4 110.4 102.3 104.3
2022-04 107.7 112.5 101.9 108.7
2022-03 110.5 111.5 100.6 108.0
2022-02 110.4 114.9 106.0 111.5
2022-01 109.9 116.1 106.2 110.5
2021-12 116.8 115.9 90.8 112.2
2021-11 115.4 115.5 96.5 113.2
2021-10 111.6 115.4 91.5 110.3
2021-09 109.2 115.0 89.0 112.2
2021-08 111.3 119.6 93.6 112.4
2021-07 114.5 115.0 92.9 114.0
2021-06 118.7 114.8 90.7 110.6
2021-05 115.0 111.6 91.0 109.7
2021-04 104.1 113.2 89.6 107.2
2021-03 100.3 106.5 84.7 104.1
2021-02 93.8 105.8 91.1 101.4
2021-01 89.3 104.6 88.6 100.4
2020-12 89.5 96.2 88.1 101.9
2020-11 92.3 91.7 89.8 94.7
2020-10 93.3 94.6 91.7 94.6
2020-09 102.2 91.3 92.3 92.3
2020-08 95.8 91.6 91.5 87.5
2020-07 88.9 85.0 80.3 81.2
2020-06 92.3 78.8 77.2 78.7
2020-05 90.0 75.9 75.5 73.9
2020-04 91.3 76.7 73.2 73.2
2020-03 106.7 97.9 96.0 97.2
2020-02 107.4 99.3 100.6 100.1
2020-01 107.2 100.6 106.2 99.3
2019-12 107.3 97.2 99.8 97.9
2019-11 103.6 97.6 105.7 100.8
2019-10 105.1 96.2 100.8 98.8
2019-09 107.5 99.2 101.5 101.2
2019-08 108.1 99.6 101.5 101.4
2019-07 104.3 102.5 99.5 100.2
2019-06 108.5 98.6 101.0 100.4
2019-05 111.5 103.9 102.9 101.9
2019-04 106.1 101.0 101.4 100.7
2019-03 105.9 100.6 103.1 101.3
2019-02 107.9 104.5 101.2 101.1
2019-01 107.3 103.1 103.0 101.9
2018-12 107.1 101.9 102.8 102.3
2018-11 109.2 101.7 104.3 102.7
2018-10 102.0 106.5 104.0 102.6
2018-09 106.8 106.9 105.5 104.6
2018-08 107.5 107.7 106.8 105.5
2018-07 107.4 107.7 106.5 106.2
2018-06 110.1 107.5 110.3 105.4
2018-05 107.6 110.9 108.6 107.4
2018-04 108.9 109.6 113.0 107.4
2018-03 108.5 109.6 111.8 109.2
2018-02 109.8 110.4 112.7 109.8
2018-01 110.9 112.1 112.7 110.7
2017-12 110.5 110.8 110.8 110.4
2017-11 112.1 109.3 109.5 110.9
2017-10 110.7 109.2 108.9 110.1
2017-09 107.0 107.0 109.8 108.3
2017-08 108.4 106.5 108.9 108.0
2017-07 108.4 108.6 108.7 106.5
2017-06 111.3 108.0 105.6 108.1
2017-05 105.6 108.6 105.9 106.9
2017-04 103.4 106.8 106.4 107.6
2017-03 103.8 104.5 105.9 104.6
2017-02 105.2 103.7 106.8 106.0
2017-01 103.5 102.3 107.2 105.2
2016-12 108.1 103.4 105.0 104.5
2016-11 107.5 99.7 102.7 101.2
2016-10 106.2 97.5 106.1 100.9
2016-09 108.5 98.4 105.7 100.2
2016-08 98.9 98.2 104.3 101.1
2016-07 104.1 97.7 105.5 101.4
2016-06 102.7 97.2 106.3 101.2
2016-05 103.0 97.7 106.4 103.5
2016-04 105.5 100.1 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.1 99.1 106.4 100.9
2016-02 99.9 100.6 109.4 99.6
2016-01 101.3 100.6 108.5 99.3
2015-12 99.4 98.1 108.1 101.4
2015-11 101.9 99.6 108.2 99.2
2015-10 104.0 98.3 108.2 99.6
2015-09 105.3 96.2 109.5 102.3
2015-08 102.8 97.5 108.2 101.2
2015-07 108.2 98.3 105.2 102.5
2015-06 104.7 97.1 105.6 100.6
2015-05 101.7 97.2 105.3 101.3
2015-04 104.2 96.7 107.4 100.4
2015-03 100.3 94.1 105.7 99.9
2015-02 99.0 95.2 101.5 100.0
2015-01 102.9 93.6 102.1 99.5
2014-12 98.7 92.3 100.1 99.9
2014-11 95.7 92.3 100.4 99.5
2014-10 95.2 92.7 97.6 98.2
2014-09 94.0 92.3 101.2 97.0
2014-08 94.9 93.5 98.2 100.3
2014-07 96.6 89.6 99.6 98.9
2014-06 95.3 91.9 98.5 98.3
2014-05 97.7 93.8 98.7 99.2
2014-04 95.5 92.6 103.2 99.9
2014-03 99.5 92.8 101.1 102.1
2014-02 98.7 94.0 98.4 98.0
2014-01 99.0 91.5 102.8 98.4
2013-12 98.0 92.0 100.3 98.9
2013-11 97.8 92.9 102.4 98.4
2013-10 95.1 90.6 104.0 97.4
2013-09 94.5 90.3 97.9 96.9
2013-08 95.1 91.9 101.8 96.8
2013-07 91.9 89.9 99.1 94.7
2013-06 92.2 89.3 95.1 93.0
2013-05 91.0 89.7 95.2 91.6
2013-04 91.3 89.8 93.2 89.1
2013-03 93.6 89.1 94.1 91.1
2013-02 97.5 88.8 94.6 90.1
2013-01 97.1 87.8 92.7 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.8 92.6 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.3 93.1 92.1
2012-10 90.6 86.0 95.9 89.2
2012-09 96.3 91.0 97.4 93.5
2012-08 93.2 90.3 95.5 93.3
2012-07 94.1 90.8 95.4 92.1
2012-06 94.5 91.1 96.0 93.5
2012-05 93.0 94.7 95.2 95.6
2012-04 98.5 96.1 94.4 97.5
2012-03 101.9 96.6 103.3 96.9
2012-02 99.9 95.9 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.2 96.0 95.2 93.9
2011-12 97.8 96.2 100.4 94.3
2011-11 101.6 95.8 102.5 94.0
2011-10 104.0 98.1 100.5 96.2
2011-09 101.4 99.4 99.2 97.9
2011-08 103.1 100.5 102.2 100.1
2011-07 110.9 102.6 104.2 104.6
2011-06 108.0 104.5 109.8 108.5
2011-05 109.3 103.4 105.6 107.3
2011-04 108.6 104.8 106.2 109.6
2011-03 106.3 106.7 106.6 109.3
2011-02 107.1 102.6 100.0 108.0
2011-01 108.7 104.4 105.5 104.8

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 104 100 99
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 110 111 110
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 108 115 114
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 101 97 99
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 114 116 112
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 102 101 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 99 97 100
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 103 104 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 95 96 97
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 108 101 107
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 96 92 88
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 86 87 89
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 94 101 96
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 94 94 97
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 9 107 107 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Updates

The business climate in manufacturing industry of December 2022 has been revised upwards by one point, due to the inclusion of late responses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2022 and 18 January 2023.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 22 February 2023 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2022 and 18 January 2023.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 22 February 2023 at 8:45 am.

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