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Informations Rapides · 24 November 2022 · n° 302
Informations rapidesIn November 2022, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly degraded Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2022

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2022, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has diminished again. At 101, the composite indicator has lost two points and gets closer to its average (100). The balances of opinion related to the past change in production and to the level of the overall order-books have contributed the most to the decline of the composite indicator. Furthermore, the balance related to the finished-goods inventory has reached its highest level since 2008.

Informations rapides
No 302
Paru le :Paru le24/11/2022
Prochaine parution le : 20/09/2024 at 08:45 - September 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2022, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has diminished again. At 101, the composite indicator has lost two points and gets closer to its average (100). The balances of opinion related to the past change in production and to the level of the overall order-books have contributed the most to the decline of the composite indicator. Furthermore, the balance related to the finished-goods inventory has reached its highest level since 2008.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2022-11 101.5
2022-10 102.9
2022-09 101.5
2022-08 103.4
2022-07 105.6
2022-06 107.9
2022-05 106.3
2022-04 107.6
2022-03 107.4
2022-02 112.3
2022-01 112.8
2021-12 109.7
2021-11 109.4
2021-10 107.0
2021-09 106.4
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.7
2021-05 107.0
2021-04 103.4
2021-03 98.4
2021-02 98.1
2021-01 96.3
2020-12 95.2
2020-11 91.7
2020-10 94.0
2020-09 94.1
2020-08 91.4
2020-07 81.6
2020-06 77.3
2020-05 70.1
2020-04 66.7
2020-03 97.3
2020-02 100.9
2020-01 102.6
2019-12 99.3
2019-11 101.8
2019-10 99.4
2019-09 101.5
2019-08 102.0
2019-07 101.2
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.7
2019-04 101.2
2019-03 103.3
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 103.5
2018-11 105.1
2018-10 104.2
2018-09 107.1
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.3
2018-06 109.6
2018-05 109.7
2018-04 110.4
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-01 113.7
2017-12 111.8
2017-11 111.4
2017-10 111.0
2017-09 110.9
2017-08 109.9
2017-07 108.0
2017-06 108.8
2017-05 108.7
2017-04 108.5
2017-03 105.5
2017-02 106.7
2017-01 105.9
2016-12 105.7
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.4
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.5
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.7
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.5
2015-03 98.9
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.7
2014-11 98.8
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.3
2014-03 100.8
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.6
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.8
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.6
2013-05 92.0
2013-04 87.6
2013-03 90.5
2013-02 90.4
2013-01 89.7
2012-12 90.8
2012-11 91.6
2012-10 87.0
2012-09 92.6
2012-08 92.8
2012-07 91.0
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 94.7
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.4
2012-02 94.8
2012-01 94.9
2011-12 94.6
2011-11 97.5
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.8
2011-05 107.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 108.6
2010-12 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-10 104.0
2010-09 102.8
2010-08 100.3
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.6
2010-05 96.4
2010-04 94.9
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-01 90.0
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.8
2009-08 80.8
2009-07 76.2
2009-06 74.7
2009-05 72.1
2009-04 70.4
2009-03 66.4
2009-02 68.3
2009-01 72.4
2008-12 73.2
2008-11 79.6
2008-10 87.0
2008-09 91.5
2008-08 98.0
2008-07 98.7
2008-06 103.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-02 110.2
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 112.4
2007-11 112.2
2007-10 109.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-07 111.4
2007-06 111.2
2007-05 110.0
2007-04 111.9
2007-03 111.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-01 108.2
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.1
2006-09 108.0
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.5
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.0
2005-11 101.0
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.9
2005-08 99.6
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 97.0
2005-04 96.5
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.0
2005-01 103.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Aug. 22 Sep. 22 Oct. 22 Nov. 22
Composite indicator 100 103 102 103 101
Past production 5 3 5 6 1
Finished-goods inventory 12 16 15 20 28
Overall order books -18 -10 -13 -12 -15
Foreign order books -14 -8 -12 -8 -10
Past workforce size -9 6 5 8 10
Expected workforce size -10 15 14 14 13
Personal production expectations 6 12 8 12 17
General production expectations -7 -2 -6 -8 -10
Expected trend in selling prices 3 40 38 31 39
Economic uncertainty felt** 29 30 38 37 36
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Balance of opinion not CVS
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Past production is judged less positively than in October, conversely to the three months prospects

In November 2022, the balance of opinion on the past production has fallen under its average. The general prospects of production in the sector are again considered less favourable than in the previous month. Conversely, the balance of opinion on the personal production expectations over the next three months has increased for the second consecutive month and has moved away from its average.

The balance related to the expected trend in selling prices during the next three months has bounced back and remains well above its average.

The balance of opinion on economic uncertainty felt by the business managers is almost stable and remains high.

The balance of opinion on the finished-goods inventory has reached its highest level since 2008

The balance related to the current level of the inventories of finished-goods has strongly increased and has reached its highest level since 2008. In the electrical equipment and transport equipment, it has even reached levels not seen since the beginning of these series (1990). In the sector of the manufacture of food products and beverages, it has recovered whereas business leaders had previously estimated that their stocks were well below their normal level.

The balances of opinion on the overall and foreign order-books have diminished again, after a rebound in October. They both remain above their average.

The balance of opinion on the past workforce size has increased again while the one on the expected workforce size is almost stable. They remain well above their average.

The share of companies declaring supply difficulties as a factor limiting their production has diminished for the fourth month in a row. In November, 33% of enterprises have declared suffering from them, a share that remains largely above its long-term average. The proportion of companies declaring themselves to be limited in their production by a lack of personnel also falls, to 21%, while remaining above its average.

Share of compagnies declaring obstables limiting their production

Share of enterprises, in % of answers, CVS
Share of compagnies declaring obstables limiting their production (Share of enterprises, in % of answers, CVS)
Manufacturing industry Moy.** Aug. 22 Sep. 22 Oct. 22 Nov. 22
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 10 10 10 10
Sourcing difficulties 10 43 41 37 33
Workforce shortage 8 26 23 23 21
Difficulties of supply only 21 52 50 53 49
Difficulties of demand only 40 12 13 13 15
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

The indicator of the business climate is stable in the « other industries » but has deteriorated in the other branches

The business climate in the branch of the so-called “other industries” is stable. The balances of opinion related to the evolution of their own production have increased. On the contrary, the degradation of the balances of opinion on the order-books has continued. In the metalworking sub-sector, the business climate has darkened and the indicator falls to its lowest level since 2020, well below its average. In the chemical industry too, the climate indicator has continued to fall: it is the lowest in this sub-sector.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the indicator of the business climate has declined, largely due to the drop in the balance of opinion on overall order-books. This balance nevertheless remains above its average.

Similarly, the business climate in the branch of machinery and equipment goods has degraded, driven by the fall in the balance of opinion on order-books. It nevertheless remains well above its average. In the sub-sector of computer, electronic and optical products, business managers have considered that their overall order-books were less filled up than in the previous month, when the associated balance had reached a level not seen since 2003.

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of transport equipment has declined but remains above its average. In the manufacture of motor vehicles, it has significantly degraded and fallen below its average: this change is mainly explained by the fall in the balance of opinion on past production and by the rise in the one on finished-goods inventory, which has reached a level not seen since 2009. On the other hand, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate has improved for the second consecutive month.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2022-11 103.5 110.4 103.5 95.5
2022-10 107.0 113.0 105.5 95.7
2022-09 106.4 110.3 99.3 97.9
2022-08 107.0 112.5 100.6 99.2
2022-07 107.1 111.9 106.2 101.2
2022-06 108.6 110.9 103.1 105.7
2022-05 105.4 110.5 102.3 104.3
2022-04 107.7 112.6 101.9 108.7
2022-03 110.5 111.6 100.7 107.9
2022-02 110.3 115.0 106.1 111.4
2022-01 109.9 116.2 106.2 110.5
2021-12 116.8 116.0 90.9 112.2
2021-11 115.4 115.5 96.5 113.2
2021-10 111.6 115.5 91.5 110.3
2021-09 109.2 115.1 89.0 112.1
2021-08 111.3 119.7 93.6 112.4
2021-07 114.5 115.0 92.9 114.0
2021-06 118.7 114.9 90.8 110.5
2021-05 115.0 111.6 91.1 109.7
2021-04 104.1 113.3 89.6 107.2
2021-03 100.3 106.6 84.7 104.1
2021-02 93.8 105.9 91.1 101.4
2021-01 89.4 104.6 88.6 100.4
2020-12 89.5 96.3 88.1 101.9
2020-11 92.3 91.7 89.8 94.7
2020-10 93.3 94.6 91.7 94.6
2020-09 102.2 91.3 92.4 92.3
2020-08 95.9 91.7 91.6 87.5
2020-07 89.0 85.1 80.4 81.2
2020-06 92.4 78.9 77.2 78.8
2020-05 90.0 76.0 75.6 73.9
2020-04 91.3 76.8 73.2 73.3
2020-03 106.7 98.0 96.0 97.2
2020-02 107.3 99.3 100.6 100.1
2020-01 107.2 100.7 106.2 99.3
2019-12 107.3 97.2 99.8 97.9
2019-11 103.6 97.7 105.7 100.8
2019-10 105.1 96.3 100.8 98.8
2019-09 107.5 99.3 101.5 101.1
2019-08 108.1 99.6 101.5 101.3
2019-07 104.3 102.6 99.5 100.2
2019-06 108.4 98.7 101.0 100.4
2019-05 111.5 104.0 102.9 101.9
2019-04 106.1 101.1 101.4 100.7
2019-03 105.9 100.6 103.0 101.3
2019-02 107.9 104.5 101.2 101.1
2019-01 107.3 103.1 103.0 101.9
2018-12 107.1 102.0 102.8 102.3
2018-11 109.1 101.7 104.3 102.6
2018-10 102.0 106.5 104.0 102.6
2018-09 106.8 106.9 105.5 104.5
2018-08 107.5 107.7 106.8 105.4
2018-07 107.4 107.7 106.5 106.2
2018-06 110.1 107.6 110.3 105.4
2018-05 107.6 110.9 108.6 107.4
2018-04 108.8 109.7 112.9 107.4
2018-03 108.4 109.7 111.8 109.2
2018-02 109.8 110.5 112.7 109.7
2018-01 110.8 112.2 112.7 110.7
2017-12 110.4 110.8 110.8 110.3
2017-11 112.1 109.3 109.5 110.8
2017-10 110.7 109.2 108.9 110.1
2017-09 107.0 107.1 109.8 108.2
2017-08 108.4 106.5 108.9 108.0
2017-07 108.4 108.6 108.7 106.5
2017-06 111.3 108.1 105.6 108.1
2017-05 105.6 108.7 105.9 106.8
2017-04 103.4 106.8 106.4 107.6
2017-03 103.7 104.6 105.9 104.6
2017-02 105.2 103.8 106.8 106.0
2017-01 103.5 102.3 107.2 105.2
2016-12 108.0 103.5 105.0 104.5
2016-11 107.4 99.8 102.7 101.2
2016-10 106.2 97.6 106.1 100.9
2016-09 108.5 98.5 105.6 100.2
2016-08 98.9 98.2 104.3 101.1
2016-07 104.1 97.8 105.5 101.4
2016-06 102.7 97.3 106.3 101.2
2016-05 103.0 97.7 106.4 103.5
2016-04 105.5 100.2 109.5 101.0
2016-03 101.1 99.1 106.4 100.9
2016-02 99.8 100.6 109.4 99.6
2016-01 101.3 100.6 108.5 99.2
2015-12 99.4 98.2 108.1 101.4
2015-11 101.9 99.7 108.2 99.2
2015-10 104.0 98.3 108.1 99.5
2015-09 105.2 96.3 109.5 102.3
2015-08 102.8 97.5 108.2 101.2
2015-07 108.2 98.4 105.2 102.5
2015-06 104.7 97.2 105.6 100.6
2015-05 101.7 97.2 105.3 101.3
2015-04 104.2 96.7 107.4 100.3
2015-03 100.2 94.2 105.7 99.9
2015-02 99.0 95.3 101.5 99.9
2015-01 102.9 93.6 102.1 99.5
2014-12 98.7 92.4 100.1 99.9
2014-11 95.7 92.3 100.5 99.5
2014-10 95.2 92.7 97.6 98.2
2014-09 94.1 92.3 101.2 97.0
2014-08 94.9 93.5 98.2 100.3
2014-07 96.6 89.6 99.6 98.8
2014-06 95.3 92.0 98.5 98.3
2014-05 97.7 93.9 98.7 99.2
2014-04 95.5 92.6 103.2 99.9
2014-03 99.5 92.9 101.1 102.1
2014-02 98.7 94.0 98.4 98.0
2014-01 99.0 91.5 102.8 98.4
2013-12 98.0 92.0 100.3 98.9
2013-11 97.8 92.9 102.4 98.4
2013-10 95.1 90.7 104.0 97.4
2013-09 94.5 90.3 98.0 96.9
2013-08 95.1 92.0 101.8 96.8
2013-07 91.9 89.9 99.1 94.7
2013-06 92.2 89.3 95.2 93.0
2013-05 91.1 89.8 95.2 91.6
2013-04 91.4 89.9 93.2 89.1
2013-03 93.6 89.1 94.2 91.1
2013-02 97.5 88.9 94.6 90.1
2013-01 97.1 87.9 92.7 91.1
2012-12 98.4 87.9 92.6 91.7
2012-11 97.8 87.4 93.1 92.1
2012-10 90.6 86.1 95.9 89.3
2012-09 96.3 91.0 97.4 93.5
2012-08 93.2 90.4 95.6 93.3
2012-07 94.1 90.8 95.4 92.1
2012-06 94.5 91.1 96.0 93.5
2012-05 93.0 94.7 95.3 95.6
2012-04 98.5 96.1 94.4 97.5
2012-03 101.9 96.6 103.3 96.9
2012-02 99.9 96.0 94.0 95.7
2012-01 99.2 96.0 95.2 93.9
2011-12 97.8 96.2 100.4 94.3
2011-11 101.6 95.9 102.5 94.0
2011-10 104.0 98.1 100.5 96.2
2011-09 101.4 99.4 99.2 97.8
2011-08 103.0 100.5 102.2 100.1
2011-07 110.9 102.7 104.2 104.6
2011-06 108.0 104.6 109.8 108.5
2011-05 109.3 103.5 105.6 107.3
2011-04 108.6 104.9 106.2 109.6
2011-03 106.3 106.7 106.6 109.3
2011-02 107.1 102.6 100.1 108.0
2011-01 108.7 104.4 105.5 104.8

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Sep. 22 Oct. 22 Nov. 22
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 106 107 104
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 110 113 110
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 114 119 108
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 100 101 102
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 113 114 115
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 99 105 104
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 95 105 99
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 103 104 105
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 98 96 96
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 105 107 109
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 94 97 95
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 93 88 86
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 98 95 95
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 99 100 94
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 9 104 103 107
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Updates

The business climate in manufacturing industry of October 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Since the definitive data of May 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 October 2022 and 21 November 2022.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 15 December 2022 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Since the definitive data of May 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 October 2022 and 21 November 2022.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 15 December 2022 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
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